The Alliance of American Football is only three weeks old, and the contenders are starting to separate themselves from the pretenders ahead of Week 4.
Only the Orlando Apollos and the Birmingham Iron remain as the league’s undefeated teams, while the Memphis Express and Atlanta Legends are still looking for their first wins at 0-3.
So far, the AAF has been extremely profitable for UNDER bettors. Through 12 games, the UNDER is 9-3. There hasn’t been much underdog value, as home teams are 9-3 SU and 8-4 ATS. When it comes to the moneyline, faves are a fantastic 11-1 SU. Since oddsmakers and bettors are on the same playing field when it comes to learning the game, there’s plenty of money to be made on the gridiron going forward.
Here’s a breakdown of every game this weekend as well as my best bet for each contest. For AAF championship odds, click here.
San Diego Fleet vs Memphis Express (+6.5, 39.5)
After Sportsbook at 41.5, the total for Fleet-Express has been bet down throughout the week and was sitting at 39.5 as of Friday afternoon. San Diego blew out San Antonio 31-11 last week thanks to 122 yards on the ground from Ja’Quan Gardner and looks to be a legitimate threat to win the whole thing.
Memphis got a much-needed boost in Week 3 when head coach Mike Singletary replaced Christian Hackenberg with Zach Mettenberger after halftime, yet the Express still came up short in a 21-17 setback to the Apollos. The O/U is trending downward for a reason in this game – both clubs have played all three of their games UNDER the total.
The pick: UNDER 39.5 points
Orlando Apollos vs Salt Lake Stallions (+4, 41)
The Apollos have the top offense in the AAF and are the best team in the league ahead of Week 4. Quarterback Garrett Gilbert is the top signal-caller so far, as he has 198 more passing yards than the next closest quarterback. Orlando faced its biggest test of the season last week against Memphis but hung on for the slim victory.
Josh Woodrum was impressive in Salt Lake’s 23-15 triumph over Arizona, going 22-for-31 for 178 yards and a touchdown to give the Stallions their first AAF win. The ground game was excellent as well, as Joel Bouagnon and Branden Oliver each had rushing scores. Inclement weather is expected in Utah on Saturday, so expect a sloppy game between these teams.
The pick: UNDER 41 points
San Antonio Commanders vs Birmingham Iron (-8, 36.5)
The Iron won’t be considered one of the more exciting AAF teams, but they’ve been getting the job done by playing excellent defense and successfully running the ball to keep the clock ticking. Birmingham has given up only 21 points in three games and running back Trent Richardson has six touchdowns on just 2.5 yards per carry, which might be the most Trent Richardson stat that’s ever existed.
San Antonio has fallen flat after a great defensive performance in Week 1, evidenced by the Commanders giving up 68 points in the last two weeks. The Commanders’ embarrassing performance against the Fleet was highlighted by two interceptions from quarterback Logan Woodside, and unless a quarterback change is made, I expect him to have another long day in Alabama.
The pick: Iron -8
Atlanta Legends vs Arizona Hotshots (-14, 40.5)
The winless Legends are easily the worst team in the AAF, and it hasn’t been particularly close. Atlanta has been outscored 92-30 in three weeks and goes up against the high-octane Hotshots in Arizona. Bettors are flocking to the Hotshots despite the incredibly big -14 spread, but it’s important to remember that no AAF team has covered a double-digit spread so far.
While I think the Hotshots win this game outright, I’m not comfortable backing them at the current number after their loss to the Stallions in Week 3. Arizona put up 38 points at Sun Devil Stadium in Week 1 and is returning home for the second time. If the Legends can do their part offensively, this one should go OVER the total.
The pick: OVER 40.5 points