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AAF Week 5 Betting Preview and Picks

Birmingham Iron linebacker Shaheed Salmon (56) runs outof the tunnel for the game between the San Antonio Commanders and the Birmingham Iron on March 3, 2019 at Legion Field in Birmingham, Alabama.

Week 5 of the 2019 Alliance of American Football season is here, and with it comes a litany of interesting betting opportunities.

Week 4 proved that the AAF is an UNDER bettor’s league, as three of the four games on the slate went below the closing total. On the season, the UNDER is now 12-4. As a result, sportsbooks are starting to lower totals in every game across the board.

Road teams and underdogs both went 3-1 ATS last week, which is the first time underdogs have prevailed at that rate. Favorites are 12-4 SU and 9-7 ATS in the inaugural AAF campaign.

Looking for championship odds? Click here to find out the latest odds on all eight teams to win the AAF title.

Let’s dive into the Week 5 matchups!

Orlando Apollos vs Birmingham Iron (+4.5, 33.5)

In what’s shaping up to be the game of the week, the undefeated Apollos (4-0) put their perfect record on the line in Alabama against the 3-1 Iron. The Iron suffered their first loss of the season last week in a 12-11 setback to San Antonio. This is a classic case of offense vs defense, as the Apollos’ top-ranked offense will have its hands full against the No. 1 defense in the league.

Orlando is averaging just under 30 points per game, while Birmingham is allowing a little north of eight points per game. The Apollos won’t be able to showcase their usual high-octane offense, while the major question is whether the Iron will be able to score enough to keep up.

The pick: UNDER 33.5 points

Salt Lake Stallions vs San Diego Fleet (-5.5, 35.5)

San Diego got some bad news when quarterback Philip Nelson suffered a fractured clavicle in Week 4’s 26-23 loss to the Memphis Express, as Nelson is expected to miss at least a month. That means the Fleet will turn back to Mike Bercovici, who started the season opener but was benched due to poor play.

It’s going to be important for the Fleet to limit their turnovers against the Stallions, but Salt Lake has issues of its own to solve before this game kicks off. The Stallions managed only 265 yards on 53 offensive plays in last week’s snow-covered 20-11 loss to Orlando. Salt Lake is better than its record suggests, however, as two of its losses have come against the Apollos and the Iron.

The pick: UNDER 35.5 points

Memphis Express vs Atlanta Legends (-2, 38)

With both the Express and Legends sitting at 1-3 SU, this might not be the prettiest matchup of Week 5. Both franchises picked up their first wins last week and are riding some momentum, which should help. Memphis’ decision to finally bench struggling quarterback Christian Hackenberg in favor of Zach Mettenberger has given new life to the offense and, truthfully, made their games watchable.

The Legends were forced to go with Aaron Murray at QB after Matt Simms suffered an injury, and Murray has already been declared the starter against the Express. Atlanta got some help from Tarean Folston in the backfield, as the running back had 87 yards on the ground and 66 through the air. This game is going to be closer than most people think, but I believe Mettenberger and the Express will come out on top.

The pick: Express +2

San Antonio Commanders vs Arizona Hotshots (-2.5, 40.5)

The Commanders and Hotshots are trending in different directions right now. After starting the season 2-0, the Hotshots have dropped games in back-to-back weeks to previously winless teams. Meanwhile, the Commanders suddenly look like one of the top teams in the AAF on the heels of a 12-11 victory over the Iron.

San Antonio dominated the ground game last week thanks to an AAF-record 142 rushing yards from Kenneth Farrow. Both squads have struggling quarterbacks with solid rushing attacks, so expect this one to be won on the ground. Due to the lack of success through the air, this tilt should stay relatively low-scoring.

The pick: UNDER 40.5 points

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