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AAF Week 6 Betting Preview and Picks

Marquis Bundy #18 of the Arizona Hotshots runs with the ball while being tackled by Kurtis Drummond #25 of the San Antonio Commanders in the third quarter during the Alliance of American Football game at Sun Devil Stadium on March 10, 2019 in Tempe, Arizona.

The second half of the inaugural Alliance of American Football season is here, and it appears the tide is finally turning in the direction of solid offense.

After the UNDER dominated through five weeks, it was the OVER’s turn to hit in Week 5 with all four games going above the closing total. Sportsbooks offered the total for three games in the 30s last week, yet only one contest finds itself in that ballpark in Week 6.

Bettors who are backing road teams continue to profit in a big way, as road squads went 3-1 SU and ATS for the second straight week. When it comes to chalk, favorites are 15-5 SU and 11-9 ATS on the season.

What can bettors expect to see in Week 6? Here’s a breakdown of each game.

Memphis Express vs Salt Lake Stallions (-7, 39.5)

With a pair of 1-4 clubs going at it, this is undoubtedly the worst matchup of the week. Zach Mettenberger continues to make Memphis’ offense watchable under center but it hasn’t translated to wins, as the Express fell in overtime to the Atlanta Legends 23-20.

Salt Lake has played twice at home this season with each of those games going UNDER the total, with its lone win coming in Week 2 in Utah over the Arizona Hotshots. This won’t be the prettiest game on the board, but I simply don’t think the Stallions are good enough to win by more than a touchdown against an Express offense that’s averaging 23 points in Mettenberger’s two starts.

The pick: Express +7

Arizona Hotshots vs Orlando Apollos (-10, 44)

In what’s projected to be the biggest mismatch of Week 6, the unbeaten Apollos (5-0) look to be on cruise control to clinching the top seed in the AAF. It’s the opposite story for the Hotshots, however, as Arizona has dropped three in a row after starting the season 2-0.

The Hotshots are out of sorts on both sides of the ball and looked like they didn’t even belong on the same field as San Antonio last week after letting the Commanders race out to a 26-0 lead in the first half. Things won’t get any easier against the Apollos on the road, so expect this one to get out of hand early.

The pick: Apollos -10

San Antonio Commanders vs Atlanta Legends (+1.5, 40.5)

The Commanders have had the toughest schedule in the league over the last month and will be forced to play their fourth straight road game this weekend. San Antonio is a tough team to figure out right now, looking like world-beaters in the first half vs Arizona last week before letting the Hotshots climb back in the game in the second half.

Atlanta has looked like a completely different team since Aaron Murray took over the reins of the starting quarterback position. In two games as the starter, Murray is 2-0 SU and ATS. With the Commanders giving up 25 or more points in three of their past four contests, expect this one to be high-scoring.

The pick: OVER 40.5 points

Birmingham Iron vs San Diego Fleet (-6, 36)

Birmingham and San Diego look to be contenders with identical 3-2 records, and each squad will have the ability to separate itself from the pack in California. The Iron’s decision to replace starting QB Luis Perez in favor of Keith Price jump-started the stagnant offense, as Price went 18 of 29 for 234 yards and a touchdown – Birmingham’s first passing TD of the season.

San Diego puts its perfect 3-0 home record on the line, and any questions about the status of Week 5 starter Mike Bercovici should be put to rest after the signal-caller threw for 304 yards and a touchdown. Fresh off giving up 31 points to the Apollos, the Iron’s defense might not be as impenetrable as we initially thought.

The pick: OVER 36 points