Beat The Heat: How To Bet On Weather

With the sporting world on hold amid the COVID-19 pandemic, sportsbooks are getting creative to provide markets to wager on. Sure, you can bet on futures such as who will win Super Bowl 55 and where will Tom Brady sign, but what about day-to-day action?

Online sportsbook Sportsbook has started to release daily odds on the weather forecasts in various places in the world. They’re setting an OVER/UNDER based on the expected daily maximum and minimum temperatures and it’s as simple as wagering on whether the actual daily temperature will be higher or lower than the prediction.

How To Bet On Weather

The first approach I would take when capping these markets is using various weather predictors and taking an average of reported temperatures. Additionally, take the conditions themselves into account – if it’s supposed to be sunny, perhaps lean toward the OVER, while if there appears to be some precipitation on the horizon, then maybe go the other way.

There is also historical temperature data that can easily be found to assist you in making an educated bet. If the forecasted temperature is way out of whack in comparison to the historical average, you may find an angle to beat the forecaster.

What about those old-weather sayings such as “Red sky at night, sailors delight. Red sky in the morning, sailors take warning”? This old adage suggests that it will be a calm dry day following a red sunset the night prior. This could be a good indicator of the OVER coming in on the projected temperature.

Conversely, “clear moon, frost soon,” suggests that when the night is clear, there are no clouds to insulate the heat, the earth cools more quickly, perhaps taking longer to heat up the following day, and the UNDER may be the better wager.

And hey, if those ideas above don’t pan out, just take the UNDER each time for an emotional hedge because nobody is going to complain about the temperature being warmer than forecasted at this time of year!

Here’s a look at the locations and forecasted temperatures for March 26, 2020:

Odds as of March 25 at Sportsbook

Odds as of March 25 at Sportsbook

Odds as of March 25 at Sportsbook

Odds as of March 25 at Sportsbook

Odds as of March 25 at Sportsbook

Odds as of March 25 at Sportsbook

Odds as of March 25 at Sportsbook

Odds as of March 25 at Sportsbook

Odds as of March 25 at Sportsbook

Odds as of March 25 at Sportsbook