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2020 Election Odds Update

President Donald Trump has enjoyed few political wins over the past two months, but after his odds to win the 2020 U.S. election dipped in five of the past six weeks, this incumbent underdog finally saw a slight uptick week over week from +140 to +135. At +135, Trump’s presidential odds match Joe Biden’s from May 6. So, it’s quite the script flip.

Speaking of the former vice-president, after his odds rose for six consecutive weeks, Biden fatigue may have hit backers as his odds dipped from -160 to -150 over the past six days.

The two-ring circus that is the upcoming U.S. election potentially added a third when rapper and business mogul Kanye West announced on July 4 that he would toss his proverbial hat in said ring. Whether or not he puts his money, time and energy where his tweet is remains to be seen, but he does have roughly four weeks to make a final decision. The two main sportsbooks we track, [ol-sportsbook-bp:48:Bovada:26:Bodog] and BetOnline Sportsbook, have Mr. West pegged at +6600 and +10000, respectively.

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2020 U.S. Presidential Election Odds Tracker

Amid a global coronavirus health crisis and turbulent stock market sessions, online sportsbook [ol-sportsbook-bp:48:Bovada:26:Bodog] has had to move odds just as quickly as the news continues to come out. Please check our updated 2020 election odds tracker that shows how the presidential favorites’ chances to win have changed over the past few months.

2020 Presidential Election Odds Chart
Candidate July 9 July 3 June 27 June 22 June 17 June 4 June 3 May 27 May 20 May 13 May 6 April 29 April 22 April 15 April 8 April 2 March 28 March 18 March 16 March 14 March 8 Mar 4 Feb 27 Feb 13 Feb 5 Feb 4 Jan 29 Jan 21 Jan 14 Jan 7
Joe Biden -150 -160 -140 -130 -120 -110 +105 +120 +130 +130 +135 +120 +125 +125 +140 +140 +130 -105 -105 +115 +125 +160 +2000 +1600 +850 +600 +550 +450 +550 +400
Donald Trump +135 +140 +120 +115 EVEN EVEN -115 -120 -120 -120 -120 -120 -125 -125 -120 -115 -115 -105 EVEN -115 -130 -150 -180 -170 -150 -140 -135 -140 -145 -115
Hillary Clinton +5000 +5000 +5000 +5000 +5000 +4000 +4000 +2500 +2200 +2200 +2000 +4000 +5000 +5000 +6000 +6600 +6600 +5000 +5000 +6000 +10000 +6000 +8000 +6600 +5000 +5000 +5000 +5000 +4000 +4000
Michelle Obama +8000 +8000 +8000 +8000 +8000 +8000 +8000 +5000 +5000 +5000 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Bernie Sanders OTB OTB OTB OTB OTB OTB OTB OTB OTB OTB OTB OTB OTB OTB +2500 +1800 +3000 +4000 +3000 +2500 +1600 +1200 +275 +375 +425 +350 +250 +500 +500 +700
Mike Pence +6600 +6600 +6600 +5500 +5500 +8000 +8000 +9500 +5000 +6000 +6000 +6000 +5000 +5000 +5000 +6000 +6000 +4000 +3000 +2800 +20000 +20000 +12500 +15000 +12500 +12500 +12500 +12500 +8000 +8000
Andrew Cuomo +15000 +15000 +15000 +10000 +8000 +10000 +8000 +6000 +5000 +4000 +3000 +3000 +3300 +3300 +2200 +1000 +2200 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Nikki Haley +15000 +15000 +15000 +12500 +12500 +12500 +15000 +20000 +20000 +20000 +15000 +15000 +15000 +15000 +10000 +10000 +10000 OTB +10000 +10000 +20000 +50000 +30000 +20000 +15000 +15000 +15000 +10000 +10000 +10000
Kanye West +6600 OTB OTB OTB OTB OTB OTB OTB OTB OTB OTB OTB OTB OTB OTB OTB OTB OTB OTB OTB OTB OTB OTB OTB OTB OTB OTB OTB OTB OTB

Odds as of July 9 at [ol-sportsbook-bp:48:Bovada:26:Bodog]

How can betting odds predict the next POTUS?

Check out our How to Bet on the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election article to learn more about political betting.

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2020 Election: Poll Position

The conservative-leaning Rasmussen reported earlier this week that their first White House Watch survey learned President Trump trails Joe Biden by 10 points. The telephone and online survey found that 50 percent of likely U.S. voters back Biden compared to just 40 percent for incumbent Trump. The polling outlet also indicated that Trump’s daily approval rating has been negative double digits for 13 of the past 14 days. By comparison, Trump’s approval rating was negative single digits at the height of the coronavirus pandemic back in March.

Polling data tracked by FiveThirtyEight has Biden leading by 9.6 percentage points and that the former vice-president’s lead is stable with whispers of “verge of a landslide” starting to brew.

2020 Election: Candidate Kanye

Several days after tweeting his intention to run for presidential office, Kanye West took part in a four-hour interview with Forbes.

Despite the admitted lack of focus between interviewer and interviewee, West acknowledged that he’s taking off his red “Make America Great Again” hat and distancing himself from friend President Trump in this bid to win the White House. Why the break from Trump?

“I don’t like that I caught wind that he hid in the bunker,” West told Forbes, referring to when violent clashes occurred outside the White House front gates.

Whether West sticks to his presidential aspirations is becoming less likely after reports surfaced that he may be experiencing a bipolar episode.

Will Kanye West win a state in 2020 Election?
Option Odds
Yes +1200
No -5000

Odds as of July 9 at BetOnline Sportsbook

Will Kanye Participate In An election Debate?
Option Odds
Yes +900
No -3000

Odds as of July 9 at BetOnline Sportsbook

2020 Election: More Political Prop Bets

While Donald Trump won the 2016 Electoral College vote in a landslide, 304-227, Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by nearly three million votes. Bookmakers believe the Democratic presidential candidate wins the popular vote again in a landslide.

Popular Vote Margin of Victory
Option Odds
GOP by 10.5% or more +5000
GOP by 9.0% to 10.5% +8000
GOP by 7.5% to 9% +8000
GOP by 6.0% to 7.5% +8000
GOP by 4.5% to 6.0% +8000
GOP by 3.0% to 4.5% +4500
GOP by 1.5% to 3.0% +3000
GOP by less than 1.5% +1500
Dems by less than 1.5% +1200
Dems by 1.5% to 3.0% +1200
Dems by 3.0% to 4.5% +800
Dems by 4.5% to 6.0% +650
Dems by 6.0% to 7.5% +700
Dems by 7.5% to 9.0% +625
Dems by 9.0% to 10.5% +600
Dems by 10.5% or more +375

Odds as of July 9 at [ol-sportsbook-bp:48:Bovada:26:Bodog]

Since Biden established himself as the Democratic front-runner, odds are out on who his running mate will be. During the last debate, the former vice-president pledged to nominate a woman as his running mate.

While Kamala Harris remains a heavy favorite to earn the nomination at +105 this week, just look at how much odds movement there has been over the past month. Susan Rice enjoyed the most dramatic rise up on the vice-presidential candidate oddsboard.

Who Will Joe Biden Choose As His Vice-Presidential Running Mate?
Option July 9 June 4 May 27 May 20 May 13 April 29 April 22* April 8 April 2 March 25 March 13 March 10 March 8
Kamala Harris +105 +140 +175 +150 +165 +190 -150 +250 +210 +175 +200 +250 +300
Val Demings +1000 +375 +900 +2000 +2500 +4000 +4000 +1400 +1400 +2000 OTB OTB OTB
Elizabeth Warren +1500 +800 +700 +700 +550 +500 +450 +1500 +1400 +1200 +500 +1200 +425
Stacey Abrams +5000 +1100 +1200 +900 +1200 +1200 +1200 +900 +1000 +400 +500 +350 +325
Michelle Obama +1800 +1500 +750 +750 +750 +1000 +1800 +3000 +3000 +2800 +1400 +1000 N/A
Amy Klobuchar OTB +1600 +325 +415 +450 +360 +400 +400 +300 +300 +250 +175 +220
Susan Rice +325 +1800 +1600 +1600 +1600 +9500 N/A +5000 +6600 +6000 OTB OTB OTB
Tammy Duckworth +550 +1800 +4000 +2500 +3000 +3000 +5000 +3000 +5000 +2200 OTB OTB OTB
Gretchen Whitmer +10000 +1800 +1500 +1000 +1000 +1400 +600 +325 +600 +1500 OTB OTB OTB
Michelle Lujan Grisham +4000 +3000 +4000 +5000 +3000 +6000 N/A +2400 +5500 +3500 N/A +2000 N/A
Hillary Clinton +10000 +4000 +3500 +3000 +2000 +2500 +3300 +2000 +2000 +2500 OTB OTB OTB
Tammy Baldwin +15000 +5000 +5000 +10000 +5000 +4000 +5000 +5000 +5500 +3300 OTB OTB OTB
Catherine Cortez Masto +20000 +8000 +2000 +1800 +1800 +1600 +2000 +1000 +900 +2000 +2000 +2500 +900
Tulsi Gabbard +20000 +10000 +10000 +10000 +9500 +9500 N/A +5000 +5000 +5000 OTB OTB OTB
Keisha Lance Bottoms +3500                        

Odds as of July 9 at [ol-sportsbook-bp:48:Bovada:26:Bodog], while *April 22 are BetOnline Sportsbook.

Popular Vote vs Electoral College Vote Odds

Take a look at the updated odds from BetOnline Sportsbook on what’s going to transpire with both the popular vote and the Electoral College this time around.

The Dems are up to -800, from -400 last month, to win the popular vote after weeks stuck at -275, with the Republicans coming back as +460 underdogs.

For months, the likeliest election result for Trump had been that he’d win the Electoral College and lose the popular vote as he did in 2016. After six straight weeks at +140, the most likely scenario is Trump to lose both the Electoral College and popular vote at -170.

What’s striking is the gap between -170 to lose both electoral and popular and +200 to win electoral and lose popular. So, if you believe Trump wins this year’s election in a landslide, there is great value in that wager.

Donald Trump Election Special
Option July 9 June 4 May 27 May 20 May 13 May 6 April 29 April 22 April 15 April 8 April 2 March 25 March 18 March 10 March 8
To win Electoral College, lose popular vote +200 +210 +210 +225 +225 +225 +225 +225 +225 +200 +200 +200 +200 +200 +150
To lose Electoral College and popular vote -170 +115 +115 +140 +140 +140 +140 +140 +140 +110 +110 +110 +110 +125 +200
To win Electoral College and popular vote +400 +225 +225 +200 +225 +225 +225 +250 +250 +300 +300 +300 +300 +300 +250
To lose Electoral College, win popular vote +2500 +1600 +1600 +1500 +1400 +1400 +1400 +1400 +1400 +2500 +2500 +2500 +2500 +1400 +1400

Odds as of July 9 at BetOnline Sportsbook 

Which party will win the popular vote in the 2020 presidential election?
Option July 9 June 4 May 27 May 20 May 13 May 6 April 29 April 22 April 15 April 8 April 2 March 25 March 18 March 10 March 8
Democrats -800 -400 -290 -275 -275 -275 -275 -275 -280 -290 -300 -330 -290 -275 -190
Republicans +460 +275 +210 +200 +200 +200 +200 +200 +205 +210 +220 +235 +210 +200 +145

Odds as of July 9 at [ol-sportsbook-bp:48:Bovada:26:Bodog]

Which Party will Win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
Party July 9 June 4 May 27 May 20 May 13 May 6 April 29 April 22 April 15 April 8 April 2 March 25 March 18 March 13 March 10 March 8
Republican Party +135 -110 -125 -125 -125 -125 -125 -125 -125 -125 -115 -115 -115 -115 -130 -160
Democratic Party -180 -120 -105 -105 -105 -105 -105 -105 -105 -105 -115 -115 -115 -115 EVEN a+120

Odds as of July 9 at [ol-sportsbook-bp:48:Bovada:26:Bodog]