President Donald Trump has enjoyed few political wins over the past two months, but after his odds to win the 2020 U.S. election dipped in five of the past six weeks, this incumbent underdog finally saw a slight uptick week over week from +140 to +135. At +135, Trump’s presidential odds match Joe Biden’s from May 6. So, it’s quite the script flip.
Speaking of the former vice-president, after his odds rose for six consecutive weeks, Biden fatigue may have hit backers as his odds dipped from -160 to -150 over the past six days.
The two-ring circus that is the upcoming U.S. election potentially added a third when rapper and business mogul Kanye West announced on July 4 that he would toss his proverbial hat in said ring. Whether or not he puts his money, time and energy where his tweet is remains to be seen, but he does have roughly four weeks to make a final decision. The two main sportsbooks we track, Sportsbook and Sportsbook, have Mr. West pegged at +6600 and +10000, respectively.
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2020 U.S. Presidential Election Odds Tracker
Amid a global coronavirus health crisis and turbulent stock market sessions, online sportsbook Sportsbook has had to move odds just as quickly as the news continues to come out. Please check our updated 2020 election odds tracker that shows how the presidential favorites’ chances to win have changed over the past few months.
Candidate | July 9 | July 3 | June 27 | June 22 | June 17 | June 4 | June 3 | May 27 | May 20 | May 13 | May 6 | April 29 | April 22 | April 15 | April 8 | April 2 | March 28 | March 18 | March 16 | March 14 | March 8 | Mar 4 | Feb 27 | Feb 13 | Feb 5 | Feb 4 | Jan 29 | Jan 21 | Jan 14 | Jan 7 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Joe Biden | -150 | -160 | -140 | -130 | -120 | -110 | +105 | +120 | +130 | +130 | +135 | +120 | +125 | +125 | +140 | +140 | +130 | -105 | -105 | +115 | +125 | +160 | +2000 | +1600 | +850 | +600 | +550 | +450 | +550 | +400 |
Donald Trump | +135 | +140 | +120 | +115 | EVEN | EVEN | -115 | -120 | -120 | -120 | -120 | -120 | -125 | -125 | -120 | -115 | -115 | -105 | EVEN | -115 | -130 | -150 | -180 | -170 | -150 | -140 | -135 | -140 | -145 | -115 |
Hillary Clinton | +5000 | +5000 | +5000 | +5000 | +5000 | +4000 | +4000 | +2500 | +2200 | +2200 | +2000 | +4000 | +5000 | +5000 | +6000 | +6600 | +6600 | +5000 | +5000 | +6000 | +10000 | +6000 | +8000 | +6600 | +5000 | +5000 | +5000 | +5000 | +4000 | +4000 |
Michelle Obama | +8000 | +8000 | +8000 | +8000 | +8000 | +8000 | +8000 | +5000 | +5000 | +5000 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Bernie Sanders | OTB | OTB | OTB | OTB | OTB | OTB | OTB | OTB | OTB | OTB | OTB | OTB | OTB | OTB | +2500 | +1800 | +3000 | +4000 | +3000 | +2500 | +1600 | +1200 | +275 | +375 | +425 | +350 | +250 | +500 | +500 | +700 |
Mike Pence | +6600 | +6600 | +6600 | +5500 | +5500 | +8000 | +8000 | +9500 | +5000 | +6000 | +6000 | +6000 | +5000 | +5000 | +5000 | +6000 | +6000 | +4000 | +3000 | +2800 | +20000 | +20000 | +12500 | +15000 | +12500 | +12500 | +12500 | +12500 | +8000 | +8000 |
Andrew Cuomo | +15000 | +15000 | +15000 | +10000 | +8000 | +10000 | +8000 | +6000 | +5000 | +4000 | +3000 | +3000 | +3300 | +3300 | +2200 | +1000 | +2200 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Nikki Haley | +15000 | +15000 | +15000 | +12500 | +12500 | +12500 | +15000 | +20000 | +20000 | +20000 | +15000 | +15000 | +15000 | +15000 | +10000 | +10000 | +10000 | OTB | +10000 | +10000 | +20000 | +50000 | +30000 | +20000 | +15000 | +15000 | +15000 | +10000 | +10000 | +10000 |
Kanye West | +6600 | OTB | OTB | OTB | OTB | OTB | OTB | OTB | OTB | OTB | OTB | OTB | OTB | OTB | OTB | OTB | OTB | OTB | OTB | OTB | OTB | OTB | OTB | OTB | OTB | OTB | OTB | OTB | OTB | OTB |
Odds as of July 9 at Sportsbook
How can betting odds predict the next POTUS?
Check out our How to Bet on the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election article to learn more about political betting.
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2020 Election: Poll Position
The conservative-leaning Rasmussen reported earlier this week that their first White House Watch survey learned President Trump trails Joe Biden by 10 points. The telephone and online survey found that 50 percent of likely U.S. voters back Biden compared to just 40 percent for incumbent Trump. The polling outlet also indicated that Trump’s daily approval rating has been negative double digits for 13 of the past 14 days. By comparison, Trump’s approval rating was negative single digits at the height of the coronavirus pandemic back in March.
Polling data tracked by FiveThirtyEight has Biden leading by 9.6 percentage points and that the former vice-president’s lead is stable with whispers of “verge of a landslide” starting to brew.
2020 Election: Candidate Kanye
Several days after tweeting his intention to run for presidential office, Kanye West took part in a four-hour interview with Forbes.
Despite the admitted lack of focus between interviewer and interviewee, West acknowledged that he’s taking off his red “Make America Great Again” hat and distancing himself from friend President Trump in this bid to win the White House. Why the break from Trump?
“I don’t like that I caught wind that he hid in the bunker,” West told Forbes, referring to when violent clashes occurred outside the White House front gates.
Whether West sticks to his presidential aspirations is becoming less likely after reports surfaced that he may be experiencing a bipolar episode.
Option | Odds |
---|---|
Yes | +1200 |
No | -5000 |
Odds as of July 9 at Sportsbook
Option | Odds |
---|---|
Yes | +900 |
No | -3000 |
Odds as of July 9 at Sportsbook
2020 Election: More Political Prop Bets
While Donald Trump won the 2016 Electoral College vote in a landslide, 304-227, Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by nearly three million votes. Bookmakers believe the Democratic presidential candidate wins the popular vote again in a landslide.
Option | Odds |
---|---|
GOP by 10.5% or more | +5000 |
GOP by 9.0% to 10.5% | +8000 |
GOP by 7.5% to 9% | +8000 |
GOP by 6.0% to 7.5% | +8000 |
GOP by 4.5% to 6.0% | +8000 |
GOP by 3.0% to 4.5% | +4500 |
GOP by 1.5% to 3.0% | +3000 |
GOP by less than 1.5% | +1500 |
Dems by less than 1.5% | +1200 |
Dems by 1.5% to 3.0% | +1200 |
Dems by 3.0% to 4.5% | +800 |
Dems by 4.5% to 6.0% | +650 |
Dems by 6.0% to 7.5% | +700 |
Dems by 7.5% to 9.0% | +625 |
Dems by 9.0% to 10.5% | +600 |
Dems by 10.5% or more | +375 |
Odds as of July 9 at Sportsbook
Since Biden established himself as the Democratic front-runner, odds are out on who his running mate will be. During the last debate, the former vice-president pledged to nominate a woman as his running mate.
While Kamala Harris remains a heavy favorite to earn the nomination at +105 this week, just look at how much odds movement there has been over the past month. Susan Rice enjoyed the most dramatic rise up on the vice-presidential candidate oddsboard.
Option | July 9 | June 4 | May 27 | May 20 | May 13 | April 29 | April 22* | April 8 | April 2 | March 25 | March 13 | March 10 | March 8 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kamala Harris | +105 | +140 | +175 | +150 | +165 | +190 | -150 | +250 | +210 | +175 | +200 | +250 | +300 |
Val Demings | +1000 | +375 | +900 | +2000 | +2500 | +4000 | +4000 | +1400 | +1400 | +2000 | OTB | OTB | OTB |
Elizabeth Warren | +1500 | +800 | +700 | +700 | +550 | +500 | +450 | +1500 | +1400 | +1200 | +500 | +1200 | +425 |
Stacey Abrams | +5000 | +1100 | +1200 | +900 | +1200 | +1200 | +1200 | +900 | +1000 | +400 | +500 | +350 | +325 |
Michelle Obama | +1800 | +1500 | +750 | +750 | +750 | +1000 | +1800 | +3000 | +3000 | +2800 | +1400 | +1000 | N/A |
Amy Klobuchar | OTB | +1600 | +325 | +415 | +450 | +360 | +400 | +400 | +300 | +300 | +250 | +175 | +220 |
Susan Rice | +325 | +1800 | +1600 | +1600 | +1600 | +9500 | N/A | +5000 | +6600 | +6000 | OTB | OTB | OTB |
Tammy Duckworth | +550 | +1800 | +4000 | +2500 | +3000 | +3000 | +5000 | +3000 | +5000 | +2200 | OTB | OTB | OTB |
Gretchen Whitmer | +10000 | +1800 | +1500 | +1000 | +1000 | +1400 | +600 | +325 | +600 | +1500 | OTB | OTB | OTB |
Michelle Lujan Grisham | +4000 | +3000 | +4000 | +5000 | +3000 | +6000 | N/A | +2400 | +5500 | +3500 | N/A | +2000 | N/A |
Hillary Clinton | +10000 | +4000 | +3500 | +3000 | +2000 | +2500 | +3300 | +2000 | +2000 | +2500 | OTB | OTB | OTB |
Tammy Baldwin | +15000 | +5000 | +5000 | +10000 | +5000 | +4000 | +5000 | +5000 | +5500 | +3300 | OTB | OTB | OTB |
Catherine Cortez Masto | +20000 | +8000 | +2000 | +1800 | +1800 | +1600 | +2000 | +1000 | +900 | +2000 | +2000 | +2500 | +900 |
Tulsi Gabbard | +20000 | +10000 | +10000 | +10000 | +9500 | +9500 | N/A | +5000 | +5000 | +5000 | OTB | OTB | OTB |
Keisha Lance Bottoms | +3500 |
Odds as of July 9 at Sportsbook, while *April 22 are Sportsbook.
Popular Vote vs Electoral College Vote Odds
Take a look at the updated odds from Sportsbook on what’s going to transpire with both the popular vote and the Electoral College this time around.
The Dems are up to -800, from -400 last month, to win the popular vote after weeks stuck at -275, with the Republicans coming back as +460 underdogs.
For months, the likeliest election result for Trump had been that he’d win the Electoral College and lose the popular vote as he did in 2016. After six straight weeks at +140, the most likely scenario is Trump to lose both the Electoral College and popular vote at -170.
What’s striking is the gap between -170 to lose both electoral and popular and +200 to win electoral and lose popular. So, if you believe Trump wins this year’s election in a landslide, there is great value in that wager.
Option | July 9 | June 4 | May 27 | May 20 | May 13 | May 6 | April 29 | April 22 | April 15 | April 8 | April 2 | March 25 | March 18 | March 10 | March 8 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
To win Electoral College, lose popular vote | +200 | +210 | +210 | +225 | +225 | +225 | +225 | +225 | +225 | +200 | +200 | +200 | +200 | +200 | +150 |
To lose Electoral College and popular vote | -170 | +115 | +115 | +140 | +140 | +140 | +140 | +140 | +140 | +110 | +110 | +110 | +110 | +125 | +200 |
To win Electoral College and popular vote | +400 | +225 | +225 | +200 | +225 | +225 | +225 | +250 | +250 | +300 | +300 | +300 | +300 | +300 | +250 |
To lose Electoral College, win popular vote | +2500 | +1600 | +1600 | +1500 | +1400 | +1400 | +1400 | +1400 | +1400 | +2500 | +2500 | +2500 | +2500 | +1400 | +1400 |
Odds as of July 9 at Sportsbook
Option | July 9 | June 4 | May 27 | May 20 | May 13 | May 6 | April 29 | April 22 | April 15 | April 8 | April 2 | March 25 | March 18 | March 10 | March 8 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democrats | -800 | -400 | -290 | -275 | -275 | -275 | -275 | -275 | -280 | -290 | -300 | -330 | -290 | -275 | -190 |
Republicans | +460 | +275 | +210 | +200 | +200 | +200 | +200 | +200 | +205 | +210 | +220 | +235 | +210 | +200 | +145 |
Odds as of July 9 at Sportsbook
Party | July 9 | June 4 | May 27 | May 20 | May 13 | May 6 | April 29 | April 22 | April 15 | April 8 | April 2 | March 25 | March 18 | March 13 | March 10 | March 8 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Republican Party | +135 | -110 | -125 | -125 | -125 | -125 | -125 | -125 | -125 | -125 | -115 | -115 | -115 | -115 | -130 | -160 |
Democratic Party | -180 | -120 | -105 | -105 | -105 | -105 | -105 | -105 | -105 | -105 | -115 | -115 | -115 | -115 | EVEN | a+120 |
Odds as of July 9 at Sportsbook