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Biden Leaves House, Cuts Into President Trump’s Odds Lead

Biden odds to win 2020 election

Former vice-president Joe Biden made his first public appearance in more than two months earlier this week when he and his wife Jill attended a Memorial Day ceremony in Delaware to honor fallen service members.

While he’s truly taken the work-from-home open invitation to heart, Biden’s out-of-sight campaigning has not led those wagering on the 2020 presidential election to push the former VP out of mind. In fact, before pulling back to +120 today, Biden’s odds to win the presidential election hit +115 late last week – prior to Monday’s cameo – for the first time in two months.

Meanwhile, President Donald Trump, whose aggressive tone and rhetoric has ticked up in recent weeks due to poor poll numbers, saw his election odds remain flat for a fifth consecutive week at -120. Vice-President Mike Pence’s odds to win the election – peculiar as their existence may be – sank to +9500 after months in the +5000 to +6000 range.

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2020 U.S. Presidential Election Odds Tracker

Amid a global coronavirus health crisis and turbulent stock market sessions, online sportsbook Bovada has had to move odds just as quickly as the news continues to come out. Please check our updated 2020 election odds tracker that shows how the presidential favorites’ chances to win have changed over the past few months.

2020 Presidential Election Odds Tracker
CandidateMay 27May 20May 13May 6April 29April 22April 15April 8April 2March 28March 18March 16March 14March 8Mar 4Feb 27Feb 13Feb 5Feb 4Jan 29Jan 21Jan 14Jan 7
Donald Trump-120-120-120-120-120-125-125-120-115-115-105EVEN-115-130-150-180-170-150-140-135-140-145-115
Joe Biden+120+130+130+135+120+125+125+140+140+130-105-105+115+125+160+2000+1600+850+600+550+450+550+400
Hillary Clinton+2500+2200+2200+2000+4000+5000+5000+6600+6600+6600+5000+5000+6000+10000+6000+8000+6600+5000+5000+5000+5000+4000+4000
Andrew Cuomo+6000+5000+4000+3000+3000+3300+3300+2500+1000+2200             
Michelle Obama+5000+5000+5000                    
Bernie SandersOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTB+3000+1800+3000+4000+3000+2500+1600+1200+275+375+425+350+250+500+500+700
Mike Pence+9500+5000+6000+6000+6000+5000+5000+5000+6000+6000+4000+3000+2800+20000+20000+12500+15000+12500+12500+12500+12500+8000+8000
Nikki Haley+20000+20000+20000+15000+15000+15000+15000+10000+10000+10000OTB+10000+10000+20000+50000+30000+20000+15000+15000+15000+10000+10000+10000

Odds as of May 27 at Bovada

How can betting odds predict the next POTUS?

Check out our How to Bet on the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election article to learn more about political betting.

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2020 Election: Coronavirus Response

With coronavirus task force daily briefings a thing of the past, more and more sectors of America’s economy reopening and a sizable chunk of the electorate kind of “over” pandemic restrictions following Memorial Day weekend’s unofficial start of summer, there’s definitely a lack of consistent messaging coming out of the Trump administration.

On one hand, you have the president retweeting CDC officials’ guidelines and best practices to improve one’s chances of staying healthy and safe from the virus. On the other hand, you have the president quasi-demanding that places of worship be opened immediately in a not-so-veiled effort to play to a specific segment of his base supporters. And then there is this incredible tweet:

Although more than a dozen biotech companies are working to develop a vaccine in short order, the former commissioner of the FDA, Scott Gottlieb, doesn’t believe there will be a widely available vaccine until 2021 and warns to expect another wave of coronavirus this fall and winter. Those leaning to back Trump may want to take this into consideration should a rise in cases hit this September/October in the weeks leading up to November’s election day.

2020 Election: Poll Position

It’s been on the Bovada oddsboard for a few months, but “Will @RealDonaldTrump Be Kicked Off Twitter Before 2022?” has new legs following the social platform’s decision to flag one of the president’s tweets for accuracy. You can see Twitter’s postscript flag if you click on the tweet below.

You can get 5-to-1 odds that President Trump will be kicked off Twitter before 2022 (not 2021). If you don’t believe he will, you’d have to pay $900 to win $100 at the current odds.

Rasmussen Daily Presidential Poll

Rasmussen’s conservative-leaning daily presidential poll reported that as of May 27, 42 percent of likely U.S. voters approve of President Trump’s job performance compared to 57 percent disapproving. Moreover, 30 percent strongly approve of his performance compared to 47 percent who strongly disapprove.

Since May 7, his approval index rating has dipped from -4 to -17, his lowest rating since January 2019.

2020 Election: More Political Prop Bets

While Donald Trump won the 2016 Electoral College vote in a landslide, 304-227, Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by nearly three million votes. While bookmakers believe the Democratic presidential candidate wins the popular vote again, Trump is 10-to-1 to win the popular vote by less than 1.5%.

Popular Vote Margin of Victory
OptionOdds
GOP by 10.5% or more+3000
GOP by 9.0% to 10.5%+4500
GOP by 7.5% to 9%+4500
GOP by 6.0% to 7.5%+4500
GOP by 4.5% to 6.0%+4000
GOP by 3.0% to 4.5%+2400
GOP by 1.5% to 3.0%+1700
GOP by less than 1.5%+1000
Dems by less than 1.5%+600
Dems by 1.5% to 3.0%+400
Dems by 3.0% to 4.5%+475
Dems by 4.5% to 6.0%+700
Dems by 6.0% to 7.5%+1200
Dems by 7.5% to 9.0%+1600
Dems by 9.0% to 10.5%+1800
Dems by 10.5% or more+1400

Odds as of May 27 at Bovada

Since Biden established himself as the Democratic front-runner, odds are out on who his running mate will be. During the last debate, the former vice-president pledged to nominate a woman as his running mate.

While Kamala Harris remains a heavy favorite to earn the nomination at +175 this week, look at Florida Representative Val Demings’ rise up to +900 from +2000 this time last week. Michelle Obama remains firm at +750 for a third consecutive week.

Who Will Joe Biden Choose As His Vice-Presidential Running Mate?
OptionMay 27May 20May 13April 29April 22*April 8April 2March 25March 13March 10March 8
Kamala Harris+175+150+165+190-150+250+210+175+200+250+300
Amy Klobuchar+325+415+450+360+400+400+300+300+250+175+220
Stacey Abrams+1200+900+1200+1200+1200+900+1000+400+500+350+325
Elizabeth Warren+700+700+550+500+450+1500+1400+1200+500+1200+425
Gretchen Whitmer+1500+1000+1000+1400+600+325+600+1500OTBOTBOTB
Catherine Cortez Masto+2000+1800+1800+1600+2000+1000+900+2000+2000+2500+900
Val Demings+900+2000+2500+4000+4000+1400+1400+2000OTBOTBOTB
Tammy Duckworth+4000+2500+3000+3000+5000+3000+5000+2200OTBOTBOTB
Hillary Clinton+3500+3000+2000+2500+3300+2000+2000+2500OTBOTBOTB
Michelle Obama+750+750+750+1000+1800+3000+3000+2800+1400+1000N/A
Tammy Baldwin+5000+10000+5000+4000+5000+5000+5500+3300OTBOTBOTB
Michelle Lujan Grisham+4000+5000+3000+6000N/A+2400+5500+3500N/A+2000N/A
Tulsi Gabbard+10000+10000+9500+9500N/A+5000+5000+5000OTBOTBOTB
Susan Rice+1600+1600+1600+9500N/A+5000+6600+6000OTBOTBOTB

Odds as of May 27 at Bovada, while *April 22 are BetOnline.

Popular Vote vs Electoral College Vote Odds

Take a look at the updated odds from BetOnline on what’s going to transpire with both the popular vote and the Electoral College this time around.

The Dems are back up to -290 to win the popular vote after weeks stuck at -275, with the Republicans coming back as +210 underdogs.

For months, the likeliest election result for Trump has been that he’d win the Electoral College and lose the popular vote as he did in 2016. After six straight weeks at +140, the most likely scenario is Trump to lose both the electoral college and popular vote at +115.

What’s striking is the gap between +115 to lose both electoral and popular and +210 to win electoral and lose popular. So, if you believe Trump wins this year’s election in a landslide, there is great value in that wager.

Donald Trump Election Special
OptionMay 27May 20May 13May 6April 29April 22April 15April 8April 2March 25March 18March 10March 8
To win Electoral College, lose popular vote+210+225+225+225+225+225+225+200+200+200+200+200+150
To lose Electoral College and popular vote+115+140+140+140+140+140+140+110+110+110+110+125+200
To win Electoral College and popular vote+225+200+225+225+225+250+250+300+300+300+300+300+250
To lose Electoral College, win popular vote+1600+1500+1400+1400+1400+1400+1400+2500+2500+2500+2500+1400+1400

Odds as of May 27 at BetOnline 

Which party will win the popular vote in the 2020 presidential election?
OptionMay 27May 20May 13May 6April 29April 22April 15April 8April 2March 25March 18March 10March 8
Democrats-290-275-275-275-275-275-280-290-300-330-290-275-190
Republicans+210+200+200+200+200+200+205+210+220+235+210+200+145

Odds as of May 27 at Bovada

Which Party will Win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
PartyMay 27May 20May 13May 6April 29April 22April 15April 8April 2March 25March 18March 13March 10March 8
Republican Party-125-125-125-125-125-125-125-125-115-115-115-115-130-160
Democratic Party-105-105-105-105-105-105-105-105-115-115-115-115EVENa+120

Odds as of May 27 at Bovada