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Do Something! Trump, Biden Election Odds Frozen In Time

odds to win 2020 election

Unless Getty Images Inc. and I are missing a keynote address or cameo, that marquee photo of Joe Biden you see above this text was the former vice-president’s last in-person public appearance.

Biden and Bernie Sanders appeared at a socially distanced-approved CNN debate on March 15 before the Vermont senator dropped out of the race a couple of weeks later and Biden dropped out of LIVE public view indefinitely due to the pandemic.

On March 16, the day after that Democratic debate, Biden’s odds to win the election were -105 ahead of President Donald Trump, who fell back to EVEN money. However, as we can see in the table below, Biden’s lead atop the oddsboard was short-lived. Trump caught Biden at -105 a few days later before the veep’s odds dipped back into plus money, ranging between +125 and +140 over the past two months.

As for President Trump, though positioned in front of national television cameras for the better part of the past 60 days during daily press briefings, his odds remain stuck in the mud. His chances to win the 2020 election have now been -120 (54.5 percent probability to win) for four consecutive weeks.

Unless something dramatic occurs during America’s economic reboot, where coronavirus headlines surge for better, for worse, it’s unlikely we witness much movement until Biden names his vice-presidential running mate. Although, that might just be wishful thinking during this frozen political moment in time.

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2020 U.S. Presidential Election Odds Tracker

Amid a global coronavirus health crisis and turbulent stock market sessions, online sportsbook Bovada has had to move odds just as quickly as the news continues to come out. Please check our updated 2020 election odds tracker that shows how the presidential favorites’ chances to win have changed over the past few months.

2020 Presidential Election Odds Tracker
CandidateMay 20May 13May 6April 29April 22April 15April 8April 2March 28March 18March 16March 14March 8Mar 4Feb 27Feb 13Feb 5Feb 4Jan 29Jan 21Jan 14Jan 7
Donald Trump-120-120-120-120-125-125-120-115-115-105EVEN-115-130-150-180-170-150-140-135-140-145-115
Joe Biden+130+130+135+120+125+125+140+140+130-105-105+115+125+160+2000+1600+850+600+550+450+550+400
Hillary Clinton+2200+2200+2000+4000+5000+5000+6600+6600+6600+5000+5000+6000+10000+6000+8000+6600+5000+5000+5000+5000+4000+4000
Andrew Cuomo+5000+4000+3000+3000+3300+3300+2500+1000+2200             
Michelle Obama+5000+5000                    
Bernie SandersOTBOTBOTBOTBOTBOTB+3000+1800+3000+4000+3000+2500+1600+1200+275+375+425+350+250+500+500+700
Mike Pence+5000+6000+6000+6000+5000+5000+5000+6000+6000+4000+3000+2800+20000+20000+12500+15000+12500+12500+12500+12500+8000+8000
Nikki Haley+20000+20000+15000+15000+15000+15000+10000+10000+10000OTB+10000+10000+20000+50000+30000+20000+15000+15000+15000+10000+10000+10000

Odds as of May 20 at Bovada

How can betting odds predict the next POTUS?

Check out our How to Bet on the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election article to learn more about political betting.

Read Here

2020 Election: Coronavirus Response

Earlier this week, during a media briefing, President Donald Trump announced that he has started taking the controversial anti-malaria drug hydroxychloroquine in a perceived attempt to stave off the chances of catching the coronavirus.

“Hopefully other people will not follow this example,” Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security senior scholar Dr. Amesh Adalja said.

So, there’s that.

Meanwhile, the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) quietly released a 60-page guide for schools, businesses, transit and other economic sectors preparing to reopen safely during this ongoing pandemic. Why does this matter? According to the New York Times, the guidelines are similar to ones that the Trump administration shelved earlier.

To put this in some sort of easy-to-digest political perspective:

  • We are in the midst of an ongoing pandemic
  • People are still getting sick and dying of COVID-19 each and every day
  • The Centers for DISEASE Control put together a detailed plan and guidelines for major parts, sectors of American life
  • There was no press conference to announce and review these measures where reporters could ask questions on behalf of the American people who are, you know, trying to do the right thing and not get sick
  • There was simply a digital document release so those who may be interested in reviewing it could do so

Kind of a weird rollout, right? Does it matter? Well, how much do you trust the conservative-leaning Rasmussen polls?

2020 Election: Poll Position

According to a Rasmussen poll released late last week, nearly one in four Republican voters would prefer a 2020 GOP candidate other than President Trump. The survey learned that 23 percent of likely GOP voters believe the right side of the aisle should pick somebody besides Trump to represent their party in the upcoming election.

Not to be outdone, 28 percent of likely Democratic voters surveyed believed the left side of the aisle should find somebody besides Joe Biden to run for office this fall.

With the economy a driving force behind coronavirus decision-making, it’s probably wise to check in on the latest CNBC/Change Research polling. More than 5,400 Democratic and Republican likely voters were polled in battleground states of Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Polling learned that Trump holds a slight 48-46 percent lead over Biden, but – more importantly – Trump led 41-32 among Independents surveyed in those states.

The study also revealed that the president leads Biden 51-40 on who would do a better job handling the economy the next four years, while it was a statistical tie over who would be better to handle coronavirus issues in the coming years.

2020 Election: More Political Prop Bets

While Donald Trump won the 2016 Electoral College vote in a landslide, 304-227, Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by nearly three million votes. While bookmakers believe the Democratic presidential candidate wins the popular vote again, Trump is 9-to-1 to win the popular vote by less than 1.5%.

Popular Vote Margin of Victory
OptionOdds
GOP by 10.5% or more+3000
GOP by 9.0% to 10.5%+4500
GOP by 7.5% to 9%+4500
GOP by 6.0% to 7.5%+4500
GOP by 4.5% to 6.0%+3600
GOP by 3.0% to 4.5%+2400
GOP by 1.5% to 3.0%+1700
GOP by less than 1.5%+900
Dems by less than 1.5%+700
Dems by 1.5% to 3.0%+450
Dems by 3.0% to 4.5%+500
Dems by 4.5% to 6.0%+675
Dems by 6.0% to 7.5%+1100
Dems by 7.5% to 9.0%+1500
Dems by 9.0% to 10.5%+1600
Dems by 10.5% or more+1200

Odds as of May 20 at Bovada

Since Biden established himself as the Democratic front-runner, odds are out on who his running mate will be. During the last debate, the former vice-president pledged to nominate a woman as his running mate.

While Kamala Harris remains a heavy favorite to earn the nomination at +150 this week, look at Susan Rice’s recent rise to the top from 95-to-1 to 16-to-1, while Michelle Obama remains firm at +750 for a second consecutive week.

Who Will Joe Biden Choose As His Vice-Presidential Running Mate?
OptionMay 20May 13April 29April 22*April 8April 2March 25March 13March 10March 8
Kamala Harris+150+165+190-150+250+210+175+200+250+300
Amy Klobuchar+415+450+360+400+400+300+300+250+175+220
Stacey Abrams+900+1200+1200+1200+900+1000+400+500+350+325
Elizabeth Warren+700+550+500+450+1500+1400+1200+500+1200+425
Gretchen Whitmer+1000+1000+1400+600+325+600+1500OTBOTBOTB
Catherine Cortez Masto+1800+1800+1600+2000+1000+900+2000+2000+2500+900
Val Demings+2000+2500+4000+4000+1400+1400+2000OTBOTBOTB
Tammy Duckworth+2500+3000+3000+5000+3000+5000+2200OTBOTBOTB
Hillary Clinton+3000+2000+2500+3300+2000+2000+2500OTBOTBOTB
Michelle Obama+750+750+1000+1800+3000+3000+2800+1400+1000N/A
Tammy Baldwin+10000+5000+4000+5000+5000+5500+3300OTBOTBOTB
Michelle Lujan Grisham+5000+3000+6000N/A+2400+5500+3500N/A+2000N/A
Tulsi Gabbard+10000+9500+9500N/A+5000+5000+5000OTBOTBOTB
Susan Rice+1600+1600+9500N/A+5000+6600+6000OTBOTBOTB

Odds as of May 20 at BetOnline, while the rest of the chart odds are via Bovada

Popular Vote vs Electoral College Vote Odds

Take a look at the updated odds from BetOnline on what’s going to transpire with both the popular vote and the Electoral College this time around.

The Dems are down from -330 favorites to win the popular vote to -275 over the past eight weeks, with the Republicans coming back as +200 underdogs.

For months, the likeliest election result for Trump has been that he’d win the Electoral College and lose the popular vote as he did in 2016. However, for the past five weeks, he’s now most likely to lose the Electoral College and popular vote. Granted, at +140, there is only 41.67 percent implied probability of it happening.

What’s striking is the gap between +140 to lose both electoral and popular and +225 to win electoral and lose popular. So, if you believe Trump wins this year’s election in a landslide, there is great value in that wager.

Donald Trump Election Special
OptionMay 20May 13May 6April 29April 22April 15April 8April 2March 25March 18March 10March 8
To win Electoral College, lose popular vote+225+225+225+225+225+225+200+200+200+200+200+150
To lose Electoral College and popular vote+140+140+140+140+140+140+110+110+110+110+125+200
To win Electoral College and popular vote+200+225+225+225+250+250+300+300+300+300+300+250
To lose Electoral College, win popular vote+1500+1400+1400+1400+1400+1400+2500+2500+2500+2500+1400+1400

Odds as of May 20 at BetOnline 

Which party will win the popular vote in the 2020 presidential election?
OptionMay 20May 13May 6April 29April 22April 15April 8April 2March 25March 18March 10March 8
Democrats-275-275-275-275-275-280-290-300-330-290-275-190
Republicans+200+200+200+200+200+205+210+220+235+210+200+145

Odds as of May 20 at Bovada

Which Party will Win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
PartyMay 20May 13May 6April 29April 22April 15April 8April 2March 25March 18March 13March 10March 8
Republican Party-125-125-125-125-125-125-125-115-115-115-115-130-160
Democratic Party-105-105-105-105-105-105-105-115-115-115-115EVENa+120

Odds as of May 20 at Bovada

Despite efforts to expedite a reboot of the American economy after more than a month offline, the country is full speed ahead toward another recession. The odds soared from -700 a couple of weeks ago to -3300 the third week of May thanks to a rising unemployment rate over 14 percent.

Will There Be a Recession in Trump’s First Term?
OptionOdds
Yes-3300
No+950

Odds as of May 20 at Bovada. The U.S. economy must experience two consecutive quarters with negative annual growth rate in real GDP (rounded to first decimal)