On Monday, January 20th, 2025, Donald Trump will be inaugurated as President of the United States for the second time. You've joined me already to handicap Trump's Presidential odds throughout his election campaign, now join me as I handicap odds and props for his inauguration.
Props like: "How long will Trump's inauguration address be?" With Trump's first inaugural speech being nice and short see below why I expect much of the same from him this time around.
Person To Attend Donald Trump's Second Inauguration
| Person | Odds |
|---|---|
| Barack Obama | -15000 |
| Hillary Clinton | -15000 |
| Kamala Harris | -15000 |
| Bill Clinton | -10000 |
| George W. Bush | -10000 |
| Joe Biden | -10000 |
| Michelle Obama | -10000 |
| Nancy Pelosi | -1250 |
| Javier Milei | -1000 |
| Rudy Giuliani | -400 |
| Volodymyr Zelensky | +175 |
| Tesla Bot (Humanoid) | +400 |
| Taylor Swift | +3000 |
| Xi Jinping | +4000 |
| Kim Jung Un | +10000 |
| Vladimir Putin | +15000 |
Odds as of January 17 at Sportsbook
You need to immediately ignore some of the more outlandish suggestions on this list. Kim Jung Un and Vladimir Putin will not leave their countries for this ceremony, both are paranoid and rarely leave their borders, specifically to venture into what is still a hostile US, even with Trump as President.
And while the thought of a robot at the inauguration sounds outlandish the suggestion that we might see a humanoid Tesla Bot isn't too crazy. We know that Tesla owner Elon Musk is part of Team Trump and he will be present for the inauguration and speak at a pre-inauguration rally. We also know that Musk has big plans for his robots, suggesting recently that Tesla will produce up to 100,000 units in 2026, what better time to announce this than in front of all the cameras at Trump's inauguration?
Number of Times Crowd Size Is Mentioned By Trump In Inaugural Address
| Odds | |
|---|---|
| None | -120 |
| 1 or 2 | +175 |
| 3 or 4 | +800 |
| 5+ | +500 |
Odds as of January 17 at Sportsbook
You might feel like 1 or 2 mentions of crowd sizes for Trump is a safe bet but we have to remember that he never technically mentioned crowd size in his first inaugural address. In that speech, Trump was polished and stuck to the script on the teleprompter. The closest he came to mentioning crowd size in his 1,444-word address was this passage:
"You came by the tens of millions to become part of a historic movement the likes of which the world has never seen before." - Trump's First Inaugural Adress
We also have to remember that thanks to a polar vortex the inauguration has been moved indoors and not in front of the Capital building where the address is typically given. So Trump won't be able to look out over his crowd and admire its size (or spit "alternate facts").
Number of Words In Trump's Inauguration Address
| Person | Odds |
|---|---|
| Over 2500 | +225 |
| 2001 to 2500 | +250 |
| 1501 to 2000 | +250 |
| 1500 And Under | +250 |
Odds as of January 17 at Sportsbook
I'm shocked that OVER 2,500 words have the best odds at +225. Again, Trump's first address had 1,444 words, it was the shortest address we've seen since Jimmy Carter's 1,229-word address in 1977. Presidents don't typically add another 1,100 words to an inaugural speech the second time around.
Since Nixon, the average change to a second inaugural address has been around an additional 110 words.
We also have to remember Trump's age, at 78 years old, Trump isn't about to perform a marathon address in front of the nation. He's going to keep it nice and short as he did the first time around. To me, 1500 words or less at +250 is the right play.
