Sanders Suspends Campaign, Trump’s Election Odds Improve

Bernie Sanders and his supporters are down to the felt and the feels. The senior senator from Vermont ended his 2020 presidential campaign Wednesday and thus opened the door for former vice-president Joe Biden to secure the Democratic nomination and square off against President Donald Trump in November’s election.

Although some books like Sportsbook may decide to keep him on the board moving forward, Sanders’ odds to win the election “closed” at +3000 on the day he ended his presidential run. His odds to win the Democratic nomination on February 26, just six weeks ago, were -125, or 55.56 percent implied probability, but his momentum came to a screeching halt when Biden snatched South Carolina’s primary and dominated Super Tuesday.

Prior to learning of his clear path, Biden’s odds to win the 2020 election began April 8 ping-ponging between +140 and +135. In other words, his odds are flat week over week. Meanwhile, President Trump’s odds are slowly creeping up and creating separation between himself and the top Democratic challenger. Trump’s odds to win received a slight bump to -120, or 54.55 percent implied probability, up from -115 this time last week.

After a little taste of the presidential odds limelight last week, New York Governor Andrew Cuomo’s odds cratered from +1000 to +2500 week over week. He isn’t currently running.

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2020 U.S. Presidential Election Odds Tracker

Amid a global coronavirus health crisis and turbulent stock market sessions, online sportsbook Sportsbook has had to move odds just as quickly as the news continues to come out. Please check our updated 2020 election odds tracker that shows how the presidential favorites’ chances to win have changed over the past few months.

Odds as of April 8 at Sportsbook

2020 Election: Coronavirus Response

If you are blessed with the ability to parse the good news with the bad during this coronavirus pandemic, I tip my hat. To me, the daily reports, briefings and data dump overloads have the voting public drowning in information that many cherry-pick to their liking when, in truth, we still don’t know what we don’t know. However, according to one of the task force’s top voices, the tide may be turning.

Dr. Anthony Fauci said during a national television interview that while the number of coronavirus deaths will continue to spike through this week, we may be seeing the beginnings of a turnaround as recent data indicates new cases and hospitalizations are down. Now, this doesn’t mean social distancing and efforts to stop the spread cease and Americans can go back about their daily lives. The new normal remains in place indefinitely.

So, how do the most recent pandemic data point updates and the current state of things impact the president and his bid to win the 2020 election?

As I will continue to reiterate in this space, while the pandemic is not Trump’s fault, he has yet to own his attempts to play down the seriousness of the virus. However, during his April 7 briefing, this exchange stood out after a reporter challenged him on how quickly he claimed the virus would fade away.

“Well, the cases really didn’t build up for a while. But you have to understand, I’m a cheerleader for this country. I don’t want to create havoc and shock and everything else, but ultimately, when I was saying that, I’m also closing it down.”

To be honest, I’m surprised it took this long for Trump to find this exit strategy. If I’m reading this right, he claims he downplayed the seriousness to keep Americans calm, while indirectly creating a more lax, laissez-faire attitude toward efforts to mitigate the spread come early March. Don’t be surprised if he returns to this messaging as a way to dig himself out of this specific hole critics continue to harp on at each briefing.

As he preached efforts to calm the masses, Trump’s recent strategy to kick back and deflect responsibility to the governors of each state – which Nikki Haley (+10000) echoed in a NY Times op-ed piece – evolved to a global scapegoat this week. The World Health Organization was the primary target of the president’s ire during Tuesday’s press briefing. However, in his effort to threaten to cut United States funding, he made the mistake of once again talking out of both sides of his mouth. Perhaps this was an art of the deal snafu or he really doesn’t know what will come out of his mouth next. Here’s what I mean (from the White House transcript):

“And we’re going to put a hold on money spent to the WHO,” President Trump said. “We’re going to put a very powerful hold on it, and we’re going to see. It’s a great thing if it works, but when they call every shot wrong, that’s no good.”

Fifteen minutes later, this exchange between Trump and a reporter …

Reporter: Thanks. A quick follow-up on that. So is the time to freeze funding to the WHO during a pandemic of this magnitude?

PRESIDENT: No, maybe not. I mean, I’m not saying I’m going to do it, but we’re going to look at it.

Reporter: You did say that you’re going to —

PRESIDENT: We give a tremendous —

Reporter: You said you’d put a hold on it.

PRESIDENT: No, I didn’t. I said we’re going to look at it. We’re going to investigate it. We’re going to look at it. But we will look at ending funding.

This is what’s so confounding for many voters. What are you supposed to make of what the president just said? Does it matter to enough voters on November 3 to make a difference at the polls? The art of the deal is hard to track when the narrative changes every few minutes. Thus, it’s difficult to handicap the 2020 election unless you believe that enough of Trump’s staunch supporters and base remain loyal this fall and the Electoral College advantage he possesses remains the same.

If you believe that to be true, his odds are still cheap enough to drop some digits on him winning re-election.

2020 Election: Biden’s Muffled Message

So, former vice-president Joe Biden is about to earn the Democratic presidential nomination. From what I’ve noticed, he’s averaging about one national media hit per week at a time he could be energizing his base supporters and explaining, in detail, what he’d do during this pandemic if he were in charge. All signs point to the coronavirus cycling back and hitting the States again this fall and winter right around election time. His most recent national interview occurred on the third hour of NBC’s Today Show.

Watch @CraigMelvin's full one-on-one interview with former Vice President @JoeBiden. pic.twitter.com/B9AYWceNn1

— 3rd Hour of TODAY (@3rdHourTODAY) April 7, 2020

Per the norm, his message wasn’t as crisp and articulate as it needs to be in this moment. Bernie Sanders’ supporters aren’t the type of voters to just “vote blue no matter who” and he’s going to need them later this year. At this point, I sound like a broken record harping on Biden’s struggles to connect with his audience. While President Trump’s message is abrasive and at times confounding, the public understands the words coming out of his mouth. It’s sad to state but that’s where this race stands. The often uttered blue wave of Democratic support may become a ripple if Biden’s team doesn’t figure out a way to un-muffle the message.

2020 Election: More Political Prop Bets

Odds as of April 8 at Sportsbook

Since Biden established himself as the Democratic front-runner, odds are out on who his running mate will be. During the last debate, the former vice-president pledged to nominate a woman as his running mate.

Former candidate Amy Klobuchar opened as the favorite and Senator Kamala Harris remains the betting favorite at +250, but watch out for Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, whose odds have soared from +1500 to +325 over the past two weeks. A vocal and articulate critic of President Trump in a battleground state, this may be the cheapest her odds will be before Biden names his VP. Tammy Duckworth and Michelle Lujan Grisham also enjoyed notable odds bumps week over week.

Odds as of April 8 at Sportsbook

Popular Vote vs Electoral College Vote Odds

While President Trump won the 2016 Electoral College vote in a landslide, 304-227, Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by nearly three million votes.

Take a look at Sportsbook’s updated odds on what’s going to transpire with both the popular vote and the Electoral College this time around.

The Dems are down from -330 favorites to win the popular vote to -290 over the past two weeks, with the Republicans coming back as +210 underdogs.

For months, the likeliest election result for Trump has been that he’d win the Electoral College and lose the popular vote as he did in 2016. However, for the past four weeks, he’s now most likely to lose the Electoral College and popular vote. Granted, at +110, there is only 47.62 percent implied probability of it happening.

What’s striking is the gap between +110 to lose both electoral and popular and +200 to win electoral and lose popular. This update is pretty jarring, but the coronavirus response and shaky stock market have done President Trump no favors the past month. So, if you believe Trump wins this year’s election in a landslide, there is great value in that wager.

Odds as of April 8 at Sportsbook

Odds as of April 8 at Sportsbook

Odds as of April 8 at Sportsbook

If we are indeed turning a corner on the pandemic, perhaps a recession can be avoided. Bookmakers disagree at the moment as -750 carries an implied probability of 88.24 percent and remains flat week over week.

Odds as of April 8 at Sportsbook. The U.S. economy must experience two consecutive quarters with negative annual growth rate in real GDP (rounded to first decimal)