Trump, Biden Election Odds Flat as American Economy Looks to Reopen

It appears 2020 election odds are following America’s stay-at-home guidelines this week as the two-horse race between President Donald Trump and former vice-president Joe Biden didn’t budge since last Wednesday. Despite holding court during daily coronavirus task force press conferences, Trump’s odds to win remained at -125 or about where they were back in early January. Though less visible, Biden’s election odds are +125 and in underdog plus money for a fifth consecutive week.

New York Governor Andrew Cuomo, who traveled to the White House for a face-to-face meeting with the president this week, is still on the oddsboard at +3300 even though he has no intention of running. As crazy as it may sound, in any other election year, sans pandemic, one could make a very strong case for a brokered Democratic convention this summer. Hampered logistics make it impossible and, learning from mistakes made back in 2016, the left side of the aisle seems hell-bent on portraying a unified voice over these next six months leading up to the November 3 trip to the ballot box.

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2020 U.S. Presidential Election Odds Tracker

Amid a global coronavirus health crisis and turbulent stock market sessions, online sportsbook Sportsbook has had to move odds just as quickly as the news continues to come out. Please check our updated 2020 election odds tracker that shows how the presidential favorites’ chances to win have changed over the past few months.

Odds as of April 22 at Sportsbook

2020 Election: Coronavirus Response

Late last week, President Trump made the following announcement:

Therefore, my administration is issuing new federal guidelines that will allow governors to take a phased and deliberate approach to reopening their individual states. I’ve dealt with them now a long time, and we’ve had a great relationship — Democrat, Republican, the relationship has been good. This strategy is based on hard, verifiable data.

It’s been nearly a week since his “reopening of America” commentary and details of the three-phased rollout remain a little cloudy on a state-by-state basis. Georgia and Colorado governors appear focused on a swift economic reboot by allowing businesses like hair salons and gyms to open their doors. Other governors are collaborating with their neighbor states to reopen regionally when it makes sense and is “safe” to ease into the old normal again. Regardless, Trump has kind of waffled on his “governors’ choice” as to when they should reopen.

While his prepared statements noted above specifically say “allow governors to take a phased and deliberate approach to reopening,” he’s also been criticized for a trio of social media posts that vividly said “LIBERATE MINNESOTA!” “LIBERATE VIRGINIA!” and “LIBERATE MICHIGAN!” These comments were timely because at the same time Trump posted them, protestors took to the streets and state capitals demanding governors immediately remove stay-at-home guidelines and open businesses back up.

Even before the “liberate” tweets, Trump’s “governors’ choice” guidelines appeared to insulate him from political blowback and led me to draw this analogy:

***MOM CALLS A FAMILY MEETING***

MOM: GREAT NEWS! I WANT YOU TWO KIDS TO HAVE DESSERT, BUT YOUR DAD WILL BE IN CHARGE OF WHEN TO SERVE THE POISONED AND NON-POISONED SLICES OF CAKE.

DAD: WAIT, WHAT?

MOM: NOW, IF DAD SERVES THE SLICES BEFORE DINNER, THERE’S A GREATER CHANCE OF BEING POISONED, BUT IF HE WAITS A LITTLE LONGER, THERE’S STILL A CHANCE OF SICKNESS, JUST NOT AS GREAT. ALSO, IF HE WAITS TOO LONG, DAD’S INDECISION WILL FORCE US TO SELL THIS HOUSE.

HOWEVER, DON’T FORGET THAT IT’S UP TO DAD WHEN TO SERVE DESSERT.

CHILD: DAD, WE’RE READY FOR DESSERT!
CHILD 2: YEAH, DESSERT NOW!

DAD: BUT I’M NOT SURE WHICH ONES ARE POISONED?

CHILD: DESSERT!
CHILD 2: TOMMY, I’M NOT SO SURE WE SHOULD—
CHILD: SHUT UP BILLY. DAD, DESSERT!

MOM: SOUNDS LIKE YOU SHOULD GIVE THEM THE DESSERT, BUT IT’S YOUR CHOICE, DAD. I’LL LEAVE THIS DECISION UP TO YOU.

DAD: MAYBE WE SHOULD THINK ON THIS.

CHILD: MAYBE YOU SHOULD GIVE US DESSERT NOW.

DAD: HMMMM.

MOM: DAD, LIBERATE DESSERT!

DAD: WE’RE GONNA WAIT.

MOM: SORRY CHILDREN, DAD ISN’T PREPARED AND OBVIOUSLY DOESN’T WANT YOU TO HAVE DESSERT WHEN YOU WANT IT.

DAD: OK, OK, WE’LL SERVE DESSERT.

CHILD: YAY, WE LIBERATED DESSERT!
CHILD 2: I’M NOT HUNGRY.

DAD: IT’LL BE OK. HERE YOU GO. HAVE SOME CAKE.

CHILD: BECOMES ILL
CHILD 2: BECOMES ILL

MOM: IT’S OBVIOUS THAT DAD DID NOT MAKE THE RIGHT DECISION OF WHEN TO SERVE DESSERT.

Now you could parse and poke holes in the above analogy all you want, but the bottom line is essentially this: the governors are currently in a no-win situation.

Whether they remain cautious or loosen up restrictions, some segment of the state electorate are going to chew them out. Meanwhile, Trump can stand back and instigate criticism from afar and from the comfort of his Twitter account. While the national media will continue to find ways to criticize the OVERALL handling of this pandemic, Trump’s efforts to reboot the economy are aggressive (in praise) as they are passive (in critique).

On top of all this, Attorney General Bill Barr made public statements yesterday indicating that governors who drag their feet and/or implement overly strict stay-at-home measures could be charged unless they ease up.

“We’re looking carefully at a number of these rules that are being put into place,” Barr said. “And if we think one goes too far, we initially try to jawbone the governors into rolling them back or adjusting them. And if they’re not and people bring lawsuits, we file statement of interest and side with the plaintiffs.”

To recap, with Trump a -125 favorite to win the 2020 election, the governors are in charge of reopening their states’ economies over three phases, but with a subtle nudge to make that occur sooner rather than later.

And all of this under active pandemic conditions where hospitalizations and deaths appear to be trending down, but hot spots remain and most medical experts are urging that social distancing measures remain in place indefinitely and suggest that the only way America can truly reopen is via nationwide testing policies that appear to be weeks if not months away.

The electorate may be a red and blue dichotomy that demands black and white decisions, but the nation’s current state of affairs remains in a constant fog of gray.

It’s a tough bet to cap.

2020 Election: More Political Prop Bets

Odds as of April 22 at Sportsbook

Since Biden established himself as the Democratic front-runner, odds are out on who his running mate will be. During the last debate, the former vice-president pledged to nominate a woman as his running mate.

Now, Sportsbook has pulled odds to be named vice-president off their boards the past two weeks, while Sportsbook believes Kamala Harris is a strong favorite to earn the nomination over Amy Klobuchar (+400) and Elizabeth Warren (+450).

Odds as of April 22 at Sportsbook, while the rest of the chart odds are via Sportsbook

Popular Vote vs Electoral College Vote Odds

While President Trump won the 2016 Electoral College vote in a landslide, 304-227, Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by nearly three million votes.

Take a look at Sportsbook’s updated odds on what’s going to transpire with both the popular vote and the Electoral College this time around.

The Dems are down from -330 favorites to win the popular vote to -275 over the past four weeks, with the Republicans coming back as +200 underdogs.

For months, the likeliest election result for Trump has been that he’d win the Electoral College and lose the popular vote as he did in 2016. However, for the past four weeks, he’s now most likely to lose the Electoral College and popular vote. Granted, at +140, there is only 41.67 percent implied probability of it happening.

What’s striking is the gap between +140 to lose both electoral and popular and +225 to win electoral and lose popular. This update is pretty jarring, but the coronavirus response and shaky stock market have done President Trump no favors the past month. So, if you believe Trump wins this year’s election in a landslide, there is great value in that wager.

Odds as of April 22 at Sportsbook

Odds as of April 22 at Sportsbook

Odds as of April 22 at Sportsbook

If we are indeed turning a corner on the pandemic, perhaps a recession can be avoided. Bookmakers disagree at the moment as -700 carries an implied probability of 87.50 percent and remains relatively flat week over week.

Odds as of April 22 at Sportsbook. The U.S. economy must experience two consecutive quarters with negative annual growth rate in real GDP (rounded to first decimal)