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Trump Can’t Shake Off Biden In Latest 2020 Election Odds

Well, it’s Groundhog Day … again, not only for many Americans following social-distancing and stay-at-home measures over the past five-plus weeks, but also for 2020 election odds, which are currently stuck in a political quagmire. 

While President Donald Trump’s odds to win this November’s election rose five points week over week to -120, former vice-president Joe Biden’s ticked up five, too, from +125 to +120. It’s truly difficult to read too much into the current presidential odds market as both favorites are running in place for office.

Hillary Clinton’s odds to win in 2020 jumped from 50-to-1 to 40-to-1, which makes little sense considering she just endorsed Biden for president earlier this week. The only caveat to that line of thinking is that bookmakers believe Biden could name Clinton his running mate and, at times, vice-presidential candidates possess presidential odds.

Although the region isn’t completely out of the woods yet, progress is being made in New York and state governor Andrew Cuomo’s odds to win in 2020 rose for the first time in three weeks up from 33-to-1 to 30-to-1.

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2020 U.S. Presidential Election Odds Tracker

Amid a global coronavirus health crisis and turbulent stock market sessions, online sportsbook Bovada has had to move odds just as quickly as the news continues to come out. Please check our updated 2020 election odds tracker that shows how the presidential favorites’ chances to win have changed over the past few months.

2020 Presidential Election Odds Tracker
CandidateApril 29April 22April 15April 8April 2March 28March 18March 16March 14March 8Mar 4Feb 27Feb 13Feb 5Feb 4Jan 29Jan 21Jan 14Jan 7
Donald Trump-120-125-125-120-115-115-105EVEN-115-130-150-180-170-150-140-135-140-145-115
Joe Biden+120+125+125+140+140+130-105-105+115+125+160+2000+1600+850+600+550+450+550+400
Andrew Cuomo+3000+3300+3300+2500+1000+2200             
Bernie SandersOTBOTBOTB+3000+1800+3000+4000+3000+2500+1600+1200+275+375+425+350+250+500+500+700
Mike Pence+6000+5000+5000+5000+6000+6000+4000+3000+2800+20000+20000+12500+15000+12500+12500+12500+12500+8000+8000
Hillary Clinton+4000+5000+5000+6600+6600+6600+5000+5000+6000+10000+6000+8000+6600+5000+5000+5000+5000+4000+4000
Nikki Haley+15000+15000+15000+10000+10000+10000OTB+10000+10000+20000+50000+30000+20000+15000+15000+15000+10000+10000+10000

Odds as of April 29 at Bovada

How can betting odds predict the next POTUS?

Check out our How to Bet on the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election article to learn more about political betting.

Read Here

2020 Election: Coronavirus Response

Over the past four weeks, I’ve used this space to analyze the Trump administration’s efforts to slow the spread of the coronavirus, share treatment updates and path toward a vaccine. However, since my last election odds update on April 22, this pandemic arena truly jumped the shark. So, instead of rehashing UV rays, disinfectant digestion, social media attacks, finger-pointing and the reams of memes satirizing this critical moment in history, I’ll leave you with this summation.

For many Americans who will vote in this year’s presidential election, they wake up more confused than they were the day before, unsure why their president is riffing about Nobel Peace Prizes and why a former vice-president and Democratic favorite isn’t more visible, even if that means stepping up to the virtual plate.

It’s hard to move forward and reopen the country when so many are stuck in neutral. This scene from the movie “Forgetting Sarah Marshall” paints a vivid picture of how lack of clarity and conflicting messages from various sources have caused so much political frustration.

2020 Election: Poll Position

Back in 2018, FiveThirtyEight ran a piece called “Which Pollsters to Trust in 2018”.

Now, I know what you’re thinking and what many of you are verbally blurting out or mumbling in the general direction of this screen. I know, I get it, but humor me for a second.

In the piece, site founder Nate Silver touches on what you’d expect, i.e. lessons learned, etc., but he also calls out two pollsters I think bettors can and should lean on for insight the next six months. While no poll is perfect, Rasmussen – which Silver praises for its national polling accuracy in the days leading up to the 2016 election – and Monmouth were among his top-rated pollsters based on a site metric called Advanced Plus-Minus, which was created by Silver. Here’s which polling outlets fared the best, according to FiveThirtyEight, in last November’s elections.

In the latest national Monmouth Poll, which was released on April 9, Biden held a four-point lead on President Trump, but the poll was conducted before Bernie Sanders dropped out of the race. We’ll get more insight once their next national poll drops here in a week or so.

As for Rasmussen / Pulse Opinion Research, its latest polling as of April 29 showed that 46 percent of likely voters approve of President Trump’s job performance compared to 52 percent who disapprove. The pollster also released details that indicated likely voters are more excited about the Trump-Biden presidential matchup when compared to the previous two elections, Trump-Clinton and Obama-Romney. 

Earlier this week, the outlet reported that only 35 percent of likely voters believe the country is headed in the right direction. To be fair, this polling is occurring during a pandemic. However, if those polled truly believed Trump-Pence were guiding us out of this with transparency, wouldn’t that number be higher? 

It’s also worth noting that Rasmussen does tend to skew Republican / Conservative. Keep this in mind when digesting the data.

2020 Election: More Political Prop Bets

Will Trump Complete his First Term?
OptionOdds
Yes-900
No+500

Odds as of April 29 at Bovada

Since Biden established himself as the Democratic front-runner, odds are out on who his running mate will be. During the last debate, the former vice-president pledged to nominate a woman as his running mate.

While Kamala Harris remains a heavy favorite to earn the nomination at +190 this week, look at Michelle Obama’s odds up from +3000 to +1000 in less than a month’s time. Many pundits would believe Stacey Abrams is a steal at 12-to-1.

Who Will Joe Biden Choose As His Vice-Presidential Running Mate?
OptionApril 29April 22*April 8April 2March 25March 13March 10March 8
Kamala Harris+190-150+250+210+175+200+250+300
Amy Klobuchar+360+400+400+300+300+250+175+220
Stacey Abrams+1200+1200+900+1000+400+500+350+325
Elizabeth Warren+500+450+1500+1400+1200+500+1200+425
Gretchen Whitmer+1400+600+325+600+1500OTBOTBOTB
Catherine Cortez Masto+1600+2000+1000+900+2000+2000+2500+900
Val Demings+4000+4000+1400+1400+2000OTBOTBOTB
Tammy Duckworth+3000+5000+3000+5000+2200OTBOTBOTB
Hillary Clinton+2500+3300+2000+2000+2500OTBOTBOTB
Michelle Obama+1000+1800+3000+3000+2800+1400+1000N/A
Tammy Baldwin+4000+5000+5000+5500+3300OTBOTBOTB
Michelle Lujan Grisham+6000N/A+2400+5500+3500N/A+2000N/A
Tulsi Gabbard+9500N/A+5000+5000+5000OTBOTBOTB
Susan Rice+9500N/A+5000+6600+6000OTBOTBOTB

Odds as of April 29 at BetOnline , while the rest of the chart odds are via Bovada

Popular Vote vs Electoral College Vote Odds

While President Trump won the 2016 Electoral College vote in a landslide, 304-227, Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by nearly three million votes.

Take a look at the updated odds from BetOnline on what’s going to transpire with both the popular vote and the Electoral College this time around.

The Dems are down from -330 favorites to win the popular vote to -275 over the past five weeks, with the Republicans coming back as +200 underdogs.

For months, the likeliest election result for Trump has been that he’d win the Electoral College and lose the popular vote as he did in 2016. However, for the past four weeks, he’s now most likely to lose the Electoral College and popular vote. Granted, at +140, there is only 41.67 percent implied probability of it happening.

What’s striking is the gap between +140 to lose both electoral and popular and +225 to win electoral and lose popular. This update is pretty jarring, but the coronavirus response and shaky stock market have done President Trump no favors the past month. So, if you believe Trump wins this year’s election in a landslide, there is great value in that wager.

Donald Trump Election Special
OptionApril 29April 22April 15April 8April 2March 25March 18March 10March 8
To win Electoral College, lose popular vote+225+225+225+200+200+200+200+200+150
To lose Electoral College and popular vote+140+140+140+110+110+110+110+125+200
To win Electoral College and popular vote+225+250+250+300+300+300+300+300+250
To lose Electoral College, win popular vote+1400+1400+1400+2500+2500+2500+2500+1400+1400

Odds as of April 29 at BetOnline 

Which party will win the popular vote in the 2020 presidential election?
OptionApril 29April 22April 15April 8April 2March 25March 18March 10March 8
Democrats-275-275-280-290-300-330-290-275-190
Republicans+200+200+205+210+220+235+210+200+145

Odds as of April 29 at Bovada

Which Party will Win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
PartyApril 29April 22April 15April 8April 2March 25March 18March 13March 10March 8
Republican Party-125-125-125-125-115-115-115-115-130-160
Democratic Party-105-105-105-105-115-115-115-115EVENa+120

Odds as of April 29 at Bovada

If we are indeed turning a corner on the pandemic, perhaps a recession can be avoided. Bookmakers disagree at the moment as -700 carries an implied probability of 87.50 percent and remains relatively flat week over week.

Will There Be a Recession in Trump’s First Term?
OptionOdds
Yes-700
No+425

Odds as of April 29 at Bovada. The U.S. economy must experience two consecutive quarters with negative annual growth rate in real GDP (rounded to first decimal)