If political pundits had it their way, current Florida Governor Ron DeSantis would be campaigning for the better part of the next three years. Before we dig into a potential DeSantis vs President Donald Trump Republican primary and odds to win the 2024 presidential election, we must first turn our attention to this November’s Florida gubernatorial race.
Despite his laissez-faire response to COVID-19 and several controversial policies on everything from critical race theory to LGBQT rights, DeSantis’ approval ratings are through the roof and he remains the heavy favorite to win back his seat inside the governor’s mansion.
Florida Governor Odds
| Candidate | Odds |
|---|---|
| Ron DeSantis (R) | -1400 |
| Charlie Crist (D) | +700 |
Odds as of July 22 at Sportsbook
Florida’s primary isn’t until August 23. So, bookmakers at online sportsbook Sportsbook have stuck to highlighting odds for the Republican and Democratic nominee and not specific candidates. However, polling and simulations conducted by FiveThirtyEight.com suggest that DeSantis wins 95 percent of the time over likely Democratic challenger Charlie Crist.
That jives with the current odds too, as the incumbent is -1400 to win back his seat, which carries an implied probability of 93.33 percent. At 7-to-1, Crist’s implied probability to win is less than 13 percent.
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2024 Presidential Odds: DeSantis vs Trump
Despite reports that he’ll officially announce a 2024 presidential run in the near future, President Donald Trump has definitely lost some of the momentum he enjoyed in 2016 and throughout his presidency.
On top of two historic impeachments, the investigation into the January 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol has done nothing to save his reeling reputation among some conservatives looking toward the future. A recent opinion piece in “The Hill” hit the nail on the head when it comes to Trump’s potential primary bout against Ron DeSantis:
“Polling numbers are not the only problem for Trump. DeSantis has the momentum and is playing a disciplined long game. DeSantis is in office, pursuing actual policy, offering real alternatives rather than just complaints; he is capturing the fancy of some in the media and some celebrities such as Bill Maher and Elon Musk — things that used to be Trump’s territory.”
2024 Presidential Election Odds
| Candidate | Odds |
|---|---|
| Donald Trump | +250 |
| Ron DeSantis | +350 |
| Joe Biden | +650 |
Odds as of July 22 at Sportsbook
Although most of his attention these days is on blasting the January 6 committee and taking aim at President Joe Biden, Trump may want to start chipping away at DeSantis when an opportunity presents itself.
The 43-year-old governor of Florida possesses +350 odds to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election, while the 76-year-old former president is the +250 odds favorite to win back the White House. Current President Joe Biden owns the third-best odds at +650.
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Though political polling should have endured a fiery death after the mess it made ahead of the 2016 presidential election, media outlets and pundits continue to cite a whole slew of pollsters to generate some sort of headline on a regular basis. With that said, 2024 head-to-head presidential polling is thin two years out, but this past spring Biden beat out both Trump and DeSantis.
However, from the ongoing war in Ukraine to rising gas prices to soaring inflation, the political landscape has changed under Biden and he’s on shaky ground, to say the least, with an approval rating well below 35 percent as of mid-July.
It’s no wonder online sportsbook Sportsbook has started to turn their attention to alternative Democratic presidential nominees and created odds on whether they could beat DeSantis head-to-head.
DeSantis vs Yang Presidential Hopes
| Candidate | Odds |
|---|---|
| Ron DeSantis | -300 |
| Andrew Yang | +200 |
Odds as of July 22 at Sportsbook
Andrew Yang – who failed in his bid to win the 2020 presidential and 2021 New York City mayoral races – is a 2-to-1 underdog to advance further than DeSantis should the two run for the White House in 2024.
DeSantis vs Harris Presidential Hopes
| Candidate | Odds |
|---|---|
| Ron DeSantis | -180 |
| Kamala Harris | +190 |
Odds as of July 22 at Sportsbook
Vice-President Kamala Harris, the early favorite to win the Democratic nomination should Biden not seek a second term, is also an underdog to DeSantis to progress further along in the 2024 primaries and/or general election should both win the primary.
After breaking the glass ceiling as the first female vice-president in United States history, Harris has truly remained in the background of Biden’s administration, perhaps in an effort to protect herself from the growing list of policy faux pas and mounting frustrations over the state of the economy.
What a flip of the script it would be if Joe Biden’s best chance to earn a second term would be for Donald Trump to edge out the up-and-coming face of the Republican party.
