Odds to win 2020 Presidential Election

Obama, Warren & Sanders Endorse Biden; Trump’s Election Odds Improve

The enemy of my enemy is my friend.

Contrary to popular belief, President Donald Trump’s lone “enemy” the rest of this election cycle is not the media nor the World Health Organization nor the coronavirus itself, but rather former vice-president Joe Biden. He has to beat this enemy to earn four more years.

And to be fair, the term “enemy” is likely too strong a word, but we know Trump is no fan of former president Barack Obama or Biden’s Democratic nominee challengers Senator Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders. And it’s evident that those feelings are mutual back across the Oval Office. Any individual message by this Democratic trio could be drowned out by the president’s daily airing of grievances, but after all three political figures, in a presumed coordinated effort, endorsed Biden for president this week, the unified message against a common “enemy” could go a long way toward galvanizing those portions of the electorate interested in a new path come November.

Although the endorsements failed to significantly close the odds gap between Biden and the president, Biden’s odds to win the 2020 election improved from +140 to +125 week over week. Trump’s odds to win were EVEN on March 16, but improved for the fourth consecutive week and are back up to -125.

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2020 U.S. Presidential Election Odds Tracker

Amid a global coronavirus health crisis and turbulent stock market sessions, online sportsbook Sportsbook has had to move odds just as quickly as the news continues to come out. Please check our updated 2020 election odds tracker that shows how the presidential favorites’ chances to win have changed over the past few months.

2020 Presidential Election Odds Tracker
Candidate April 15 April 8 April 2 March 28 March 18 March 16 March 14 March 8 Mar 4 Feb 27 Feb 13 Feb 5 Feb 4 Jan 29 Jan 21 Jan 14 Jan 7
Donald Trump -125 -120 -115 -115 -105 EVEN -115 -130 -150 -180 -170 -150 -140 -135 -140 -145 -115
Joe Biden +125 +140 +140 +130 -105 -105 +115 +125 +160 +2000 +1600 +850 +600 +550 +450 +550 +400
Andrew Cuomo +3300 +2500 +1000 +2200                          
Bernie Sanders OTB +3000 +1800 +3000 +4000 +3000 +2500 +1600 +1200 +275 +375 +425 +350 +250 +500 +500 +700
Mike Pence +5000 +5000 +6000 +6000 +4000 +3000 +2800 +20000 +20000 +12500 +15000 +12500 +12500 +12500 +12500 +8000 +8000
Hillary Clinton +5000 +6600 +6600 +6600 +5000 +5000 +6000 +10000 +6000 +8000 +6600 +5000 +5000 +5000 +5000 +4000 +4000
Tulsi Gabbard OTB OTB +50000 +50000 +50000 +20000 +50000 +50000 +50000 +50000 +30000 +15000 +15000 +15000 +15000 +15000 +15000
Nikki Haley +15000 +10000 +10000 +10000 OTB +10000 +10000 +20000 +50000 +30000 +20000 +15000 +15000 +15000 +10000 +10000 +10000

Odds as of April 15 at Sportsbook

How can betting odds predict the next POTUS?

Check out our How to Bet on the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election article to learn more about political betting.

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2020 Election: Coronavirus Response

After he completed the scripted prologue of last Friday’s task force briefing, President Trump was ready to start fielding reporters’ questions, but with this request:

“OK, it’s Good Friday. Let’s be nice. OK,” President Trump said. “Let’s be real nice. Yeah, please. Go ahead.”

Two days later, on Easter Sunday, the president tweeted more than three dozen times with mostly not-so-nice social posts aimed at blasting the media, directing governors, and taking political shots at the other side of the aisle. This ongoing tug of war between the media and administration leaked into Monday as the president continues to find new ways to deflect responsibility for anything associated with the pandemic.

During Monday’s press briefing, Trump played a best-hits video montage of news segments, which insinuated that the media (also?) played down the seriousness of the pandemic back in January. A reporter later followed up on what many referred to as a quasi-campaign video.

Reporter: Your video has a complete gap: the month of February.

THE PRESIDENT: On January 30th —

Reporter: What did your administration do in February with the time that your travel ban bought you?


Reporter: What?

THE PRESIDENT: A lot. And, in fact, we’ll give you a list — what we did. In fact, part of it was up there. We did a lot.

Reporter: It wasn’t in the video. The video had a gap.

THE PRESIDENT: Look. Look, you know you’re a fake. You know that. Your whole network — the way you cover it — is fake. And most of you — and not all of you — but the people are wise to you. That’s why you have a lower — a lower approval rating than you’ve ever had before, times probably three.

As you can see, when challenged on the topic, Trump embraced tried and true tropes that have been the hallmark of his campaign messaging. However, his mission to find a pandemic scapegoat was just heating up.

The president started Tuesday’s press briefing in the Rose Garden by announcing that his administration would halt funding of the World Health Organization, until a review of the WHO’s role in the handling of the coronavirus was completed. He’s of the opinion that the WHO is biased toward China and (also?) culpable in playing down the severity of the virus in the early months, thus leaving the United States susceptible to its current rate of cases and deaths.

All of this circles back to these overarching themes:

  • No, the president is not at fault for the virus
  • Yes, mistakes at many levels were likely made during a once-in-a-lifetime pandemic
  • The president continues to take no responsibility nor admit he downplayed the seriousness of the virus on into early March

If what the president suggested is true, that the WHO and media both played down the seriousness of the moment, and yet he doesn’t take any responsibility in his public comments in late February and early March, this won’t cost him votes within his base supporters – they’ll vote to re-elect no matter what. But those independents and moderates may have been nudged to the left side of the aisle after these latest acts of showmanship in the days following Easter weekend.

Must we also remember that by stacking new emotionally fueled headlines each day, he’s also attempting to bury the emotionally fueled “it’s like the flu”-type headlines of just a few weeks ago. There’s a method to all of this.

2020 Election: Bidens Endorsements vs Electability

We’ll keep this portion short and sweet.

Those interested in wagering on the outcome of the 2020 United States election need to weigh everything touched on in the previous section versus the strength of Biden’s endorsements (do they matter?) + Biden’s electability (do people truly believe he’s the right man for the job?). The recent election odds movement suggests Trump is gaining back some of the backing he lost in the early days of the virus outbreak, while former vice-president Biden is kind of just along for the ride until November. 

As we know, so much can change between now and then, but before placing that bet, weigh those factors. Despite Trump’s recent issues, it’s hard to gauge if Biden is riding any blue wave of momentum or just riding the last Democratic nominee standing.

2020 Election: More Political Prop Bets

Will Trump Complete his First Term?
Option Odds
Yes -875
No +490

Odds as of April 15 at Sportsbook

Since Biden established himself as the Democratic front-runner, odds are out on who his running mate will be. During the last debate, the former vice-president pledged to nominate a woman as his running mate.

Former candidate Amy Klobuchar opened as the favorite and Senator Kamala Harris remains the betting favorite at +250, but watch out for Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, whose odds have soared from +1500 to +325 over the past two weeks. A vocal and articulate critic of President Trump in a battleground state, this may be the cheapest her odds will be before Biden names his VP. Tammy Duckworth and Michelle Lujan Grisham also enjoyed notable odds bumps week over week.

Who Will Joe Biden Choose As His Vice-Presidential Running Mate?
Option April 8 April 2 March 25 March 13 March 10 March 8
Kamala Harris +250 +210 +175 +200 +250 +300
Amy Klobuchar +400 +300 +300 +250 +175 +220
Stacey Abrams +900 +1000 +400 +500 +350 +325
Elizabeth Warren +1500 +1400 +1200 +500 +1200 +425
Gretchen Whitmer +325 +600 +1500 OTB OTB OTB
Catherine Cortez Masto +1000 +900 +2000 +2000 +2500 +900
Val Demings +1400 +1400 +2000 OTB OTB OTB
Tammy Duckworth +3000 +5000 +2200 OTB OTB OTB
Hillary Clinton +2000 +2000 +2500 OTB OTB OTB
Michelle Obama +3000 +3000 +2800 +1400 +1000 N/A
Tammy Baldwin +5000 +5500 +3300 OTB OTB OTB
Michelle Lujan Grisham +2400 +5500 +3500 N/A +2000 N/A
Tulsi Gabbard +5000 +5000 +5000 OTB OTB OTB
Susan Rice +5000 +6600 +6000 OTB OTB OTB

Odds as of April 8 at Sportsbook

Popular Vote vs Electoral College Vote Odds

While President Trump won the 2016 Electoral College vote in a landslide, 304-227, Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by nearly three million votes.

Take a look at Sportsbook’s updated odds on what’s going to transpire with both the popular vote and the Electoral College this time around.

The Dems are down from -330 favorites to win the popular vote to -280 over the past three weeks, with the Republicans coming back as +205 underdogs.

For months, the likeliest election result for Trump has been that he’d win the Electoral College and lose the popular vote as he did in 2016. However, for the past four weeks, he’s now most likely to lose the Electoral College and popular vote. Granted, at +140, there is only 41.67 percent implied probability of it happening.

What’s striking is the gap between +140 to lose both electoral and popular and +225 to win electoral and lose popular. This update is pretty jarring, but the coronavirus response and shaky stock market have done President Trump no favors the past month. So, if you believe Trump wins this year’s election in a landslide, there is great value in that wager.

Donald Trump Election Special
Option April 15 April 8 April 2 March 25 March 18 March 10 March 8
To win Electoral College, lose popular vote +225 +200 +200 +200 +200 +200 +150
To lose Electoral College and popular vote +140 +110 +110 +110 +110 +125 +200
To win Electoral College and popular vote +250 +300 +300 +300 +300 +300 +250
To lose Electoral College, win popular vote +1400 +2500 +2500 +2500 +2500 +1400 +1400

Odds as of April 15 at Sportsbook

Which party will win the popular vote in the 2020 presidential election?
Option April 15 April 8 April 2 March 25 March 18 March 10 March 8
Democrats -280 -290 -300 -330 -290 -275 -190
Republicans +205 +210 +220 +235 +210 +200 +145

Odds as of April 15 at Sportsbook

Which Party will Win the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election?
Party April 15 April 8 April 2 March 25 March 18 March 13 March 10 March 8
Republican Party -125 -125 -115 -115 -115 -115 -130 -160
Democratic Party -105 -105 -115 -115 -115 -115 EVEN a+120

Odds as of April 15 at Sportsbook

If we are indeed turning a corner on the pandemic, perhaps a recession can be avoided. Bookmakers disagree at the moment as -700 carries an implied probability of 87.50 percent and remains relatively flat week over week.

Will There Be a Recession in Trump’s First Term?
Option Odds
Yes -700
No +425

Odds as of April 15 at Sportsbook. The U.S. economy must experience two consecutive quarters with negative annual growth rate in real GDP (rounded to first decimal)