Here are a few numbers you may want to be aware of heading into the Round of 16 of Euro 2016.
If you follow me on Twitter, you know I have retired from betting fixedball and feel obligated to say so but I still watch with a bettor’s eye. Hope these numbers help:
Average goals per game
The qualifying round saw just 1.92 goals per game so it’s been a low-scoring tournament so far. That’s reflected in the totals for the Round of 16 with none of the standard offerings going higher than two goals and we are even seeing some 1.5’s (Wales-Ireland and Italy-Spain).
OVER/UNDER records
With fewer than two goals per game so far it won’t surprise you that UNDER bettors are cashing in with an O/U record of 11-18-7. Books noticed too. That’s why the totals have dropped.
There might be some value here if you feel better competition breeds more scoring, which is one theory I’ve seen out there.
Favorites suck so far
The favorites are just 15-10-11 on 3-way moneyline wagering so far (41.6%) so chances are your bankroll is feeling it if you’ve been blindly taking the chalk.
Late goals trend
In-game bettors should be aware of this one. Twenty of the tournament’s 69 goals have been scored after the 75th minute and thirteen goals have been scored after 86th minute.
Attempts on target
Call me crazy but I believe hitting the target fosters scoring. Portugal (22), Germany (21) and Wales (21) all lead Euro in shots on target while Poland (7), Slovakia (7) and Northern Ireland (8) have the fewest of the teams remaining.
