Copa America Expert Picks Today: Uruguay vs. Colombia

Copa América 2024 Expert Picks Today: Uruguay vs. Colombia Semifinal Preview

After a tense shootout victory over Brazil in the quarterfinals, Marcelo Bielsa's Uruguay battle Colombia in a thrilling Copa America semifinal. On the other side, Los Cafeteros will be riding high after a 5-0 victory over Panama.

Let's jump into all the odds and our best bets for the Uruguay vs. Colombia Copa America semifinal.

Uruguay vs. Colombia Copa América Odds

Uruguay+201+181Over 2 Goals (+108)-0 (-101)
Colombia+194 Under 2 Goals (-119)+0 (-107)

Odds as of July 9

Nick Holz's Pick: Uruguay to Qualify (-107)

Uruguay will be eager to avenge their 4-2 penalty loss in the Copa America 2021 quarterfinals.

La Celeste have conceded only one goal all tournament, and their backline will be tough for even the prolific Colombians to crack. The likes of James Rodriguez, Luis Diaz and Jhon Cordoba are dangerous in front of goal.

However, as they demonstrated against Brazil, Uruguay are unafraid of taking tactical fouls to slow the run of play. They also lead the Copa in recoveries in the attacking third, aerial win rate, and true-tackle win rate. Bettors can take great solace in knowing they are a ferociously tenacious group. The stalwart play of defensive midfielder Manuel Ugarte has led the way in the middle of the pitch. Plus, Darwin Nunez has been prolific in a Uruguayan shirt, scoring seven goals in his last six matches for his country.

I'm buying all the shares of Uruguay I can get, with the intensity of Bielsa ball set to come through once again in the Copa America semifinals.

Michel Anderson's Pick: OVER 2.5 Goals (+187)

In Uruguay and Colombia's eight combined matches, the total has gone over 2.5 goals five times (63%). It's crazy to me that the line for OVER 2.5 goals is +187. These are two sides built to "go for it".

Though both sides might differ in how they "go for it", of course. Uruguay plays a direct style with a tournament high 31 line-breaking passes. They'll find space behind that Colombian back line. Meanwhile, Los Cafeteros boasts the best attack in the competition with 11 goals and the second-highest xG after Argentina's 8.7.

I get that we're all shell-shocked following Uruguay's ugly game against Brazil. But in my opinion that's more about Brazil not knowing how to approach the game stylistically. Brazil were playing not to lose instead of trying to win. Colombia doesn't have that problem. They play to win. I'm sure were get offensive fireworks in this one.

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