With 2018 in the books, I hope you all had a profitable year betting the Premier League and footy in general. Now we flip our calendars to 2019 and it’s time to take a look at some potential wagers that I’ll be examining closely on a spot-by-spot basis.
I’m going to break down some teams that I’ll be looking to play on, some “to score anytime” options (with great betting value), some referee capping and more. These are not necessarily meant to be played every game, but fuel for you to pick your own spots and add value to a bet you possibly already had thought of.
In any event, here are some potential wagers I’ll be keeping in mind in 2019, but whatever you do, best of luck. Here’s to beating the book some more in the new year.
Play-On Team: Burnley
Burnley had an atrocious first half to the season but started the second half of the 2018-19 campaign by playing its best football of the season in a 2-0 win over West Ham on Matchday 20. Sitting 18th in the table on just 15 measly points, I suspect we see more Burnley wins in 2019 and they will be a play-on team for me in spots when we flip our calendars.
Let us not forget that this club finished seventh in the table in 2017-18 with 54 points and qualified for the Europa League, no small feat for the club. This side is so much better than what we’ve seen thus far and Sean Dyche is certainly capable of getting much more out of his squad.
It’s a quick turnaround after Sunday’s win over the Hammers, but 2019 begins with a date at Huddersfield on Wednesday and at +310, Burnley’s moneyline value looks like a dream for a club that will look to string together its first back-to-back wins of the season.
Play-On Team: Southampton
Here we have another team that hasn’t had much going for it this season but with new manager Ralph Hasenhüttl (formerly of RB Leipzig) now patroling the sideline, the Saints are another play-on team I’ll have my eye on in 2019.
Southampton had one win prior to Hasenhüttl taking over from the sacked Mark Hughes in December, but in five games in charge, the Austrian has posted two wins with one of those coming against Arsenal.
Hasenhüttl has brought with him a penchant for aggressive, attacking football which we all enjoyed during his Leipzig days and while it will take some time and potential personnel changes for this to be fully integrated in the south of England, the Saints could go from a snoozefest to a team that we might actually want to watch.
I’m not suggesting backing Southampton (and Burnley, for that matter) every time they take the pitch, but if you pick your spots and find good value, both Burnley and Southampton could be decent moneymakers to finish the season.
Cardiff City to be Relegated
Currently at EVEN money, I realize this isn’t a stretch but at 16th in the table entering the new year, the value on this might not get much better.
Cardiff has punched above its weight at times with wins over Wolves and Leicester and is three points clear of the relegation zone ahead of a midweek clash with Spurs.
To his credit, Neil Warnock has gotten a lot out of this side, but I can’t see that resuming in 2019. They have as many wins (five) as Crystal Palace! This cannot keep up. They are ahead of Southampton, Burnley and Fulham, each of whom is a better side and will finish ahead of the Bluebirds come season’s end.
To Be Top Goalscorer: Harry Kane
There is currently a three-way tie at the top of the goalscorer standings in England with Tottenham’s Kane, Arsenal’s Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah all square at 13 goals. Take your pick, with good value on all three hitmen to be top scorer, but I’ll be backing Kane.
But I have a feeling this bet will be won or lost in January.
Kane, who is always leaned on in North London to bag goals, will have to put in extra duty considering the absence of Spurs’ second-highest scorer Son Heung-Min, who is off to the Asian Games and could potentially miss around three Premier League games – each of those opponents could be ripe for the picking for Harry.
After the club releases Sonny following the Man United game, Spurs travel to Fulham and host Watford and Newcastle without their South Korean star. If Kane picks up the slack, there are a ton of goals there.
The Englishman is currently the favorite at online shop [custom:bovada-link] at +225 with Salah +250 and Aubameyang +350. I’ll be tracking Kane, but as I stated, there is good value on three of the world’s top scorers.
OVER Bookings in Mike Dean Games
I quite enjoy capping officials in sports and potentially none more so than in soccer. Nobody in England likes to show a yellow card more than Mike Dean as he has pulled out 63 yellows, three second yellows and four reds in just 15 matches.
Take, for example, Dean’s Matchday 21 assignment: Huddersfield vs Burnley. There’s some decent value here with OVER 2.5 Huddersfield bookings at +135, OVER 2.5 Burnley bookings at +125 and OVER 4.5 total bookings at -110. Burnley is the third-most booked team in the Premier League with 40 bookings. Just some interesting potential wagers for some midweek games, but definitely something to consider in 2019.
Penalty to be Given in Michael Oliver Games
Speaking of capping referees, Michael Oliver hands out pennos like it’s going out of style. Oliver leads all Prem match officials with six penalties awarded in 17 games. Typically this bet can be had at around 2/1 to 4/1 with “will a penalty be scored” normally offered around 3/1 to 5/1.
Sadly, there will be no Michael Oliver on Matchday 21 as he’s assigned the fourth official role in, coincidentally, the Huddersfield-Burnley game with Mike Dean. But with Oliver one of the busier match officials in the league, keep an eye on his assignments from here on out.
To Score Anytime Markets
I love betting players to score anytime and there will be a few players whom I’ll be keeping my eye on in 2019 beyond the usual suspects like Kane, Salah, Aubameyang, Hazard, etc.
One player who has finally started finding the back of the net is Brighton’s Jürgen Locadia. The Glenn Murray well has dried up slightly as he’s been held scoreless in five straight but Locadia has picked up the slack, scoring in back-to-back games entering their midweek game at West Ham. The Dutchman is currently +360 to score anytime at online shop [custom:bovada-link].
You’ll always catch great value backing any defender in these markets and Everton’s Lucas Digne has recently raised some eyebrows with a few golazzos in recent games.
The left-back has three goals this season and bagged an impressive brace in Everton’s 5-1 win at Burnley on Boxing Day.
Digne is able to get forward in Marco Silva’s Everton setup and he’s a deadly threat from set pieces and from distance as two of his three have come from dead balls and the third was a rocket from outside the box. The Toffees host Leicester in Matchday 21 and at +650, he’ll be worth a look in 2019.
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