Arsenal Gets Favorable Matchup with West Ham Visiting

Two London clubs with new managers and a shared desperation for points clash at the Emirates as Arsenal hosts West Ham in Premier League action Saturday. Both teams enter Gameweek 3 with zero points but the Hammers look to be worse off through two games.

Oddsmakers have the Gunners as lofty home favorites at -290 with the Hammers at +700 and the draw +425. In spread betting, Arsenal is the -1.5 fave and the total is at 3.5 with OVER at +115.

The “rivalry” here has been criminally one-sided down the years and Unai Emery and his squad will expect nothing less than a full three points. But how does this match break down and what can we expect? Let’s take a look inside Arsenal versus West Ham.

View Arsenal vs West Ham Matchup Page

Hammers Have Been Cannon Fodder

There are one-sided rivalries, and then there’s Arsenal-West Ham. The Gunners enter Saturday’s contest with 15 wins, four draws and just one loss in the last 20 league games against their London rivals. The lone loss in there came in August 2015 when the Hammers won 2-0 at the Emirates.

Last year’s fixture resulted in a 4-1 Arsenal thumping thanks to a brace from Alexandre Lacazette and single tallies from Nacho Monreal and Aaron Ramsey. Marko Arnautovic found the scoresheet for the visitors.

Furthermore, 10 of those 20 games were Arsenal clean sheets and the Gunners have outscored the Hammers 47-14 over that span. Not a great outlook for the Hammers no matter how you slice it.

Considering the lack of value in moneyline markets (unless you use Arsenal on a parlay card), let’s look at that -1.5 spread. In the last 10 meetings at the Emirates, Arsenal covered that number seven times.

While much has been made about Arsenal’s zero points through two games, they haven’t necessarily played poorly. Yes, the defensive line leaves a lot to be desired, but this squad is undeniable in possession and could have beaten Chelsea last week if chances were finished.

Manchester City at home and Chelsea away is about as rough a start as you can get and the Gunners now face a run of games where they could bag a lot of points and surge up the table. But it all starts at home against West Ham on Saturday. If Emery gets the result we all expect here, Arsenal’s season truly begins.

Card Counting

Not much has gone West Ham’s way through two games and bookings are at the forefront. The Hammers lead the Premier League with eight yellow cards entering this contest with Andriy Yarmolenko, Angelo Ogbonna, Fabián Balbuena, Felipe Anderson, Jack Wilshere, Mark Noble, Pablo Zabaleta and Michail Antonio each getting slapped with yellows.

For the sake of comparison, Arsenal is third in the league in bookings but has just four yellows compared to West Ham’s eight. Chelsea, Wolves and Fulham each enter Gameweek 3 with just one booking.

Why do I bring this up? Well, you can bet on it, of course! You’ll have to pay a bit as books are offering a number of 2.5 cards with OVER at -175. The way the Hammers have been going, with two cards against Liverpool and then six against Bournemouth last week, this feels like a solid bet.

London Calling

Now obviously we only have a small sample size this season, but looking at last season, Arsenal at home and West Ham away is yet another glaring discrepancy and it doesn’t bode well for the latter.

Nobody conceded more goals away from home last season than West Ham, who allowed hosts to slot home a whopping 42 goals. That’s four more than the next highest (Leicester and Stoke). Arsenal, on the other hand, scored the second-most goals at home with 54, only seven behind champions Manchester City and nine more than next highest (Liverpool).

There are a pair of 3.5’s on the Premier League board this week with Liverpool and Brighton being the other, and there’s decent value there at +115. I like goals in this one but I doubt I’ll pull the trigger on that this week.

I might rue that choice.