While we are unfortunately entering the international break, an incredibly lopsided betting trend has emerged in the Premier League and OVER bettors are laughing all the way to the bank.
Sure, admittedly, this is still a small sample size, but through 38 Premier League games so far, the OVER has a record of 24-11-3, cashing at a rate of 68.6 percent (taking the three pushes out of the equation, of course).
Four clubs – Arsenal, Manchester United, Brighton and Leicester – have yet to play a match that has finished UNDER the closing total and have a combined 13-0-2 O/U record. There are only two clubs – Sheffield United and Southampton – that have sub-.500 O/U records (1-2-1 O/U, 1-3 O/U respectively).
That means 18 clubs in the Premier League have O/U records of .500 or better, with 14 of those owning O/U marks of 2-1 or better.
An amazing start to goal scoring in the Prem. That, or defending in the Premier League has been an abject failure.
Thus far, there have been an average of 3.79 goals scored per game in England. That is up significantly over the 2.72 per game in the interrupted 2019-20 campaign.
For the sake of comparison, the Bundesliga has produced 3.4 goals per game in 27 matches played so far. In La Liga, there have been 2.2 goals per game and in Italy, there have been 3.39 per game (counting Verona-Roma as 0-0, which was the original scoreline and how books would have graded it, before Roma’s clerical error that made it a 3-0 Verona win).
Liverpool and Manchester United have produced the highest-scoring games so far this season. Liverpool, fresh off an insane 7-2 thrashing at the hands of Aston Villa, is playing to an average of 5.5 combined goals in its games. United, blitzed 6-1 by Tottenham in its last game, sits at 5.33 combined goals per game.
Does an above-.500 record mean you’re a profitable OVER wager, especially this early in a season? Not necessarily when you take the juice into account. But 15 of the Premier League’s 20 clubs have been profitable ventures if you’ve just gone ahead and blindly bet the OVER in each game.
Leicester’s matches would have fetched you a profit of $301.19 if risking $100 on each of its four games – the most profitable in the league so far. Brighton is right behind at $291.74 with Arsenal at $261.58 and United at $215.02.
The five clubs that would be costing you money right now are Southampton (-$204.76), Sheffield United (-$113.04), Newcastle (-$64.25), Leeds (-$29.09) and Tottenham (-$27.84).
As stated, this is a small sample size and I’m not recommending we all go out and blindly bet the OVER when the Premier League resumes on October 17, but there could be something to this throughout the season. Are teams finally figuring out how to counter the high line? Is centerback and keeper play just really awful this season? Are penalties going to be called at the ridiculous clip we’ve seen so far?
Whatever the case, the international break is upon us and we have a bit of time to think about how to proceed. And if you’ve been betting the OVER in Premier League games, you have a bit of time to spend that money you’ve been winning.
Premier League OVERS
| Club | O/U Record | OVER Profit | Combined GPG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leicester | 3-0-1 | $301.19 | 4.76 |
| Brighton | 4-0 | $291.74 | 4.5 |
| Arsenal | 3-0-1 | $261.58 | 3.25 |
| Manchester United | 3-0 | $215.02 | 5.33 |
| Crystal Palace | 3-1 | $176.43 | 3.0 |
| West Brom | 3-1 | $173.10 | 4.5 |
| Everton | 3-1 | $166.03 | 4.5 |
| Fulham | 3-1 | $165.54 | 3.5 |
| Chelsea | 3-1 | $164.98 | 4.0 |
| Liverpool | 3-1 | $154.07 | 5.5 |
| Manchester City | 2-1 | $93.07 | 4.33 |
| Wolves | 2-1-1 | $89.07 | 2.75 |
| Aston Villa | 2-1 | $74.07 | 4.33 |
| Burnley | 2-1 | $45.78 | 3.67 |
| West Ham | 1-1-2 | $15.00 | 3.0 |
| Tottenham | 2-2 | -$27.84 | 4.25 |
| Leeds | 2-2 | -$29.09 | 4.25 |
| Newcastle | 2-2 | -$64.25 | 2.75 |
| Sheffield United | 1-2-1 | -$113.04 | 1.75 |
| Southampton | 1-3 | -$204.76 | 2.75 |
