A pair of new managers clash for the first time as Maurizio Sarri and Chelsea host Unai Emery and Arsenal in what is Matchday 2’s marquee contest in the Premier League. Chelsea looked very solid in a 3-0 win over Huddersfield on Matchday 1 while Arsenal struggled in Emery’s first game in charge, albeit against the best team in the league in Manchester City.
Sarri and Chelsea are favored here at -130 in moneyline markets at Sportsbook with Arsenal +335 and the draw at +290. The total is at 2.5 with OVER at -155 and UNDER at +130.
Though it’s been just one match apiece, it appears as if Chelsea has taken to Sarri’s tactics quicker than Arsenal to Emery’s. Can we really take anything from Arsenal’s 2-0 defeat to defending champion Manchester City, however? Probably not, but another Arsenal slip-up against a top-level club would not be an ideal start to the Emery era.
Let’s take a look at what’s in store for Saturday’s game.
- OVER 2.5 has gone 3-1 in the last four Premier League meetings.
- Chelsea has won five and drawn one in the last six Premier League meetings at Stamford Bridge.
- Arsenal managed just three shots on target in its Matchday 1 loss to Manchester City, 14th lowest in the league.
View Chelsea vs Arsenal Matchup Page
Chalky, But Recent History Points to OVER
With two clubs of this stature and players of a world-class level peppering each team sheet, it shouldn’t really come as a surprise that there have been goals when these two teams meet. In fact, in the previous four Premier League meetings, there has been OVER 2.5 goals three times.
The last time these two met (in January of last season) the teams combined for four goals thanks to markers from Eden Hazard, Marcos Alonso, Hector Bellerin and the since-departed Jack Wilshere. The other two OVER 2.5s were a 3-1 Blues win and a 3-0 Gunners win back in 2016-17.
As I write this on a Tuesday, OVER 2.5 is priced at -155, so it’s a bit of chalk but not a bad wager. Chelsea tallied three against Huddersfield and, to be honest, Arsenal’s defending was mildly shambolic in Matchday 1, but again, it’s Man City.
Newcomer Sokratis and the out-of-position Ainsley Maitland-Niles (while he was on) had their hands full against City’s sparkling attack. It won’t be easier for this new-look backline at Arsenal against the likes of Eden Hazard, Willian and Pedro, so if you’re willing to pay, OVER 2.5 looks pretty solid.
Stamford Bridge Has Been Trouble for Arsenal
Five of the last six Premier League meetings at the Bridge have resulted in Chelsea wins with the sixth a 0-0 stalemate in September of last season. The five wins, however, have been largely one-sided with the Blues outscoring the Gunners 15-2 in those five fixtures. Now, one of those was a 6-0 Chelsea win in 2014 leading to a large chunk of that goal haul, but still, Chelsea has owned this fixture down the years.
There is good value here on the home side at -130, especially after a lovely 3-0 victory over Huddersfield on Matchday 1. Chelsea dominated possession (60.2 percent) and completed 88.4 percent of its passes, both second-best in Matchday 1. Plus, the Blues got goals from Pedro, N’Golo Kante and Jorginho, the latter two being a bit of a surprise.
Arsenal was dreadful on the road last season with just 16 points from 19 games and had a -11 goal differential. Chelsea, on the other hand, were sixth-best on home turf with 37 points and a +14 goal differential.
New managers, some new players and new identities with both of these clubs, but this is a trend that feels like it’s going to continue.
Gunners Futile in Possession
Against Manchester City, Arsenal mustered just nine shots overall (ranks 15th) and only three of those hit the target (ranks 14th). Only Newcastle (two), West Ham (two), Huddersfield (one), Cardiff (one) and Brighton (zero) hit the target fewer times than Arsenal so far in the league.
Arsenal only had the ball 42 percent of the time against Man City and it won’t be any easier against a Sarri-managed side that dominated possession in its opener as mentioned above. While managing Napoli, Sarri’s Partenopei led Serie A in possession all three seasons he was manager. This is the style of football he wants and with one match down at Chelsea, he’s gotten just that.
It’s going to be a tough contest for Emery and Arsenal, but a great place to start would be picking Lucas Torreira and Alexandre Lacazette in the starting XI. Both showed flashes of what they can bring to the table against City so don’t be surprised to see them start on Saturday. Perhaps at the expense of the underwhelming Mesut Ozil and Matteo Guendouzi.
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