Russia has home-ground advantage and won’t have to face Kevin De Bruyne. Still, Belgium (7-3 ATS) begins as a heavy favorite to ease to a tournament-Sportsbook win in St. Petersburg when the two teams open their respective campaigns in this Group B fixture Saturday.

Sportsbook Odds Analysis

There are two key factors that impact the movement of the Sportsbook odds for this Euro tournament: one, the lead-up through international friendlies and, two, injury news. Both have had an impact on this line as well. Firstly, Russia’s odds have lengthened significantly, moving from +376 to +445. Russia drew 1-1 against Poland and then beat Bulgaria 1-0 in the friendlies. Despite Kevin De Bruyne’s absence, Belgium’s odds have shortened slightly from -121 to -133. Belgium drew 1-1 against Greece and then beat Croatia 1-0.

Belgium News & Notes

Firstly, massive injury news from Belgium. Kevin De Bruyne underwent surgery after suffering an acute nose bone fracture and left orbital fracture in the Champions League final against Chelsea. He will not be available for this match. He has joined up with the Belgium squad, though, which is heartening for Roberto Martinez should the team push into the deeper end of the tournament.

“He watched the Croatia game and is looking forward to slowly taking his own pace with the medical team,” Martinez said. “But it makes a big difference when he’s with the players and is part of the group.”

Despite his absence, there are several high-profile attacking options for Belgium, including Romelu Lukaku, Eden Hazard and Dries Mertens. Thorgan Hazard is also available for selection for Martinez. Defensively, Martinez is settled with plenty of options, such as Jan Vertonghen and Toby Alderweireld. Youri Tielemans is expected to hold the midfield together.

Belgium has warmed up well, with a solid 1-0 win against a gritty defensive team in Croatia. Lukaku started as the solitary striker and scored the Sportsbook. Thorgan Hazard scored Belgium’s only goal in a 1-1 draw against Greece.

Russia News & Notes

Russia will not be too perturbed by their run into the tournament, which included conceding just one goal in 180 minutes of play. Russia has a methodical, concerted preference for moving the soccer ball, which fits well against a strong attacking force in Belgium.

That’s important because there will be several chances for Russia on the counterattack in open play. Artem Dzyuba will be the key player in this phase of the match. He led Russia in qualifying in goals scored, which will make him a potent force in the final third and one that Belgium will have to be wary of.

Dmitri Barinov was hit on the nose in the 1-0 win against Bulgaria but should be fine to return to the starting XI for the opener. Unfortunately for Russia, though, Fedor Kudryashov has been ruled out due to a calf issue.

Russia will be confident after a strong qualifying campaign, which only included losses to Belgium. Russia is well known for failing to qualify past standard expectations, apart from the sporadic brilliant performance, like the 2008 edition that finished with a semifinal exit. If they are to repeat the heroics of that campaign, they will need to challenge a strong team like Belgium.

Betting Pick 1: Belgium -133

De Bruyne’s absence is unlikely to change the outcome of this match significantly because Belgium still has a discernible advantage from a personnel standpoint. Russia will be playing in front of a sizable, raucous home crowd but that won’t help much if they are unable to score. Apart from Dzyuba, there aren’t too many offensive options for Russia, which is certainly not the case on the other end of the pitch.

Betting Pick 2: Total goals OVER 2.5 (-101)

Belgium possesses one of the quickest-moving styles of soccer. If the ball is moving rapidly across the phases, the shots on goal increase. And that, in turn, increases the probability of one of those shots beating the keeper. I would expect Belgium to score at least two, which should put bettors in a strong position to profit from OVER 2.5 goals in this match.