Denmark (6-4-2, 7-4-1 ATS) will look to continue their astonishing comeback into Euro 2020 as they seek an unlikely spot in the semi final when they face Czech Republic (7-1-4, 6-3-3 ATS) in the third quarter final of the tournament on Saturday night in Baku. 

Sportsbook Odds Analysis

Not much movement has ensued after the line was opened for this market. That’s a fair indicator that apart from major injury news from training or unavailability, majorly due to the coronavirus, there should be no major odds movement to the moneyline.

Czech Republic began as +260 underdogs to beat Denmark. That has now moved slightly to +288. The draw’s price has also changed from +225 to +232 presently. Denmark’s price has also undergone a very minor change: from +110 at Sportsbook to +116 currently. 

Czech Republic News & Notes

Czech Republic had to overcome one of the biggest challenges of the tournament in Netherlands in the Round of 16. There was a clear and apparent personnel mismatch in that contest, but Czech Republic stayed solid at the back and when an opportunity came around, they fully capitalized as Matthijs De Ligt was sent off. Czech Republic then scored two goals with the man advantage, more than enough to send Netherlands crashing out of the competition. 

"Diamonds can cut diamonds. Both teams base their football on teamwork and intense bursts of pace. Both try to counter opponents' higher individual skills using these assets, too. We have similar weapons,” Jiří Chytrý, Czech Republic assistant coach, said. 

Jan Boril will be available for selection after serving his suspension in the previous match. He should return into the starting XI for Czech Republic. Apart from that inclusion, there are unlikely to be too many changes to the team that beat Netherlands. Czech Republic will continue to rely on the services of Patrick Schick in the final third, as they have done right through Euro 2020 to date.

It is fairly interesting to note that Czech Republic have not been excellent in the passing department. They have a pass completion rate of just 77.3 percent (1,271 passes completed out of 1,641 passes attempted), which is not close to where they should be. From a possession standpoint, they have managed just 46.3 percent in their matches, which is extremely low for a quarter finalist. These are metrics that Denmark will view with lots of interest as areas of potential weakness. How exactly does Czech Republic shore up these departments? They have already shown they do not necessarily need to pass the ball well to succeed. 

Denmark News & Notes

This has been one of the most memorable tournaments for Denmark at the European Championship. It all started in the first group-stage match against Finland, a 1-0 defeat after their playmaker collapsed on the pitch as he suffered a horrifying cardiac arrest. After a subsequent 2-1 loss to Belgium, it is somewhat miraculous that Denmark have a fantastic chance to making the semi finals of this competition. 

Denmark won their next two matches, including a flawless performance against Wales in the Round of 16 which ended in a 4-0 victory. The confidence that these last two results would have given Denmark after the start they suffered cannot be understated. Yussuf Poulsen, Daniel Wass and Simon Kjaer are expected to be fit and available for selection. While Kjaer should ease back into the starting XI, Poulsen might have to start from the bench considering Denmark found some fluency in the final third in the previous match. 

"It's the kind of chance we might never have again, a chance that we have worked incredibly hard for, for a long time. It's a childhood dream. It's many, many years' work for lots of people. We want to make the most of it and do everything to the best of our ability, prepare really well, follow through, and see what we have out there and how far that will take us,” Denmark coach Kasper Hjulmand said. 

Denmark have been significantly better than Czech Republic in two key metrics: passing accuracy and possession. Denmark have a passing accuracy rate of 84 percent (1,791 completed passes out of 2,128 attempted). They also have a possession rate of 56 percent, almost 10 percent more than Czech Republic. If that continues in this quarter final, Denmark should cruise past Czech Republic. Denmark are also second in Euro 2020 in attempts on goal (77), behind only Italy’s 87. However, they are leading the entire tournament in shots on target (30), with just 24 off target. 

Betting Pick 1: Draw +232

These two sides have a slight difference in style and skill. Czech Republic, however, have continually proved that they can win despite the odds stacked against them. Just that grit and pluck might be the reason Denmark will find it hard to break them down defensively. It might be a high-scoring match but it could potentially end locked after 90 minutes. 

Betting Pick 2: Both Teams to Score: Yes (+100)

These are two teams that move the ball around neatly. Based on the evidence of the previous match, Denmark have too much offensive fluency not to score a goal. Czech Republic will struggle to keep out the constant barrage of chances that Denmark will create. When Denmark score, Czech Republic will certainly throw all they have back at Denmark. This could even be a high-scorer.