Denmark is favored over Finland in Saturday's Group B matchup in Copenhagen.

Eriksen, Denmark Appear Too Strong for Finland

Denmark will open the Euro 2020 tournament at home in Parken in Copenhagen on Saturday against Finland, who will be bereft of confidence after losing all three international friendly games in the lead-up to the tournament. Denmark starts as a -222 favorite to beat Finland. 

Denmark vs Finland
  • Date/Time: June 12, 12 p.m. ET
  • Stadium: Parken, Copenhagen
  • Sportsbook Odds: Denmark -183, Draw +305, Finland +592
  • Denmark vs Finland Matchup Report

Sportsbook Odds Analysis

When the Sportsbook odds were posted, Denmark was already a fairly massive favorite for this match. After they came through their friendly matches without a loss (a 1-1 draw against Germany and a 2-0 win against Bosnia-Herzegovina), those odds have moved further, with Denmark now favored to win at -222. Finland’s odds have lengthened slightly, moving from +592 to +625. As usual, the draw has stayed around where it opened. 

Denmark News & Notes

Denmark is a well-drilled team as was evident in their 1-1 draw against Germany in the friendly. Yussuf Poulsen, who scored that evening, will continue to hold a central midfield role in the starting XI. Denmark is capable of moving its lines as coach Kasper Hjulmand deems appropriate, either holding a high defensive line to catch opponents offside or a deeper line to ensure that the defense is compact in the middle. 

For this reason, it’s hard to see Finland scoring in this match. Other reasons include Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg’s presence in a holding midfielder role and Denmark’s ability to transition between phases easily. Denmark is also a fairly experienced team in this fixture: Christian Eriksen is the most experienced and should be joined by Simon Kjaer, the second-most experienced player on the Denmark team, on defense. 

Now that it has been ascertained that it will be incredibly hard for Finland to break Denmark defensively, we have to analyze the offense to see if there is the potential for a big win. Jonas Wind has scored three goals at this level of soccer and should get the starting role for this match as well. Eriksen will be the playmaker from the middle of the pitch, along with Martin Braithwaite and Andreas Cornelius. Both of them scored in a 2-0 win against Bosnia-Herzegovina, which will hold them in good stead from a confidence perspective. 

Finland News & Notes

Finland is one of the few teams to have a despondent lead-up to this tournament. They were beaten in all three international friendlies – 3-2 by Switzerland, 2-0 by Sweden and 1-0 by Estonia – which will not do much for them in terms of momentum and confidence. That’s a shame for the neutral spectator because Finland will need all of that against a quality team like Denmark. 

There was an injury scare for Teemu Pukki with an ankle issue but he looks set to start against Denmark. The rest of the team is made up largely of unknown players who will be looking to punch above their weight. Tim Sparv will likely be the midfielder the ball revolves around, entrusted with pushing it wider to stretch the field or hold a solid center. 

Maybe that’s where Finland’s real chance is in a competitive group like this, as coach Markku Kanerva said: “Denmark are a really tough team and they get to play on home soil, but we have proved we can challenge even bigger countries than Denmark.” 

Betting Pick 1: Denmark -222

There is just too much on the side of Denmark in this fixture. On paper, they hold the edge in almost all factors, including but not limited to confidence, skill of personnel and home-ground advantage considering this match will be played at Parken. It has a capacity of over 38,000. While the stadium won’t be packed, that factor will play a part in a comfortable win for Denmark. 

Betting Pick 2: Total goals UNDER 2.5 (-125)

Again, a lack of firepower for Finland could be the primary reason for a clean sheet for Denmark. If that indeed pans out as expected, then Denmark will have to score three to take the total OVER 2.5. That’s not implausible, but considering the additional payout for the UNDER, it seems like the better decision. I’m going for a 2-0 Denmark win. 

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Shark Bites
  • Denmark is 5-2-1 ATS in its last 8 games.
  • Finland is 4-5-1 ATS in its last 10 games.
  • Finland is 4-0-1 ATS at home in its last 5.
Denmark is 5-2-1 ATS in its last 8 games.away Finland is 4-5-1 ATS in its last 10 games.home Finland is 4-0-1 ATS at home in its last 5.away
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