In front of home supporters at Wembley Stadium, one of the best defensive records in a major international tournament and reliable offensive form are some of the reasons that make England (8-1-1, 5-2-3 ATS) huge favorites in this Euro 2020 semifinal against an unflappable Denmark (6-2-2, 6-3-1 ATS) team that has already overcome immense adversity. 

Sportsbook Odds Analysis

There has been movement across the board for this market but not significant by any means. England will continue as heavy favorites to advance considering they are playing in front of their home supporters at Wembley Stadium in this match. England, who started as -162 favorites, have now moved to -128 on the oddsboard.

The draw’s price has moved a bit, from +275 at Sportsbook to +264 currently. Denmark’s odds have shortened a fair bit. After starting at odds of +500 to beat England, they are now +440 underdogs in this semifinal. 

England News & Notes

England have been simply fabulous through this tournament. They started the competition a bit sluggishly on the offensive end. The old adage of defense wins tournaments rings true for England as they have kept five clean sheets to open Euro 2020. No team has ever kept six clean sheets to start a major international tournament. The records are here to be broken for a spectacular England team. 

England have now also found their offensive fluency at Euro 2020. They beat Ukraine 4-0 in a belligerent second-half performance against a tired defense. That form does not bode well at all for Denmark in the semis. Jadon Sancho was given the start by coach Gareth Southgate in the previous match but the manager may return to Bukayo Saka for this game given he brings plenty of creativity and quick feet to England’s now-firing offense. 

“We’ve got a fabulous opportunity. It’s a chance to make history as we’ve never been to a European Championship final,” England manager Gareth Southgate said. “It’s not so much pressure for this team; it’s another challenge that they’ve got the chance to take on, and at the moment they’re rising to those challenges. We had two games with Denmark in the autumn. I knew what a good side they were before and they’ve proved that again in this tournament. It is going to be a fantastic game to be part of.” 

The English have taken just 37 attempts on goal, which puts them 19th in the tournament. Only 15 of those attempts have been on target. However, they have more than made up for that with some efficient passing. They have completed a total of 2,314 passes out of 2,630 attempted passes, marking an accuracy rate of 87.4 percent while passing the ball. From a possession standpoint, they have maintained the ball for 53.4 percent of the time. England have also lost just 16 tackles, second fewest in the competition. And they have won 26 tackles, which is fifth in Euro 2020. 

Denmark News & Notes

The fact that the Danes have made the semifinal of Euro 2020 after the start they endured is a win in its own right. There are plenty of positive adjectives you can throw around and they are all appropriate for this team. They lost their first two matches and arguably their biggest threat in an offensive phase, Christian Eriksen, for the tournament against Finland. These are atypical, horrifying obstacles for a team to overcome over the course of months. 

Simon Kjaer, Kasper Hjumland and Denmark have done all that in the space of a few days as they came storming back into the tournament with three straight wins, all must-win encounters, to make the semis. In the quarterfinal, Denmark beat a resurgent Czech Republic team 2-1 after thrashing Wales 4-0 in the Round of 16. The only issue, which has been well-documented going into this match, is that the emotional toll some of these results have taken could be far too much against one of the best teams of Euro 2020 in their backyard. 

“It’ll be like playing an away game, but that also has its own charm, so we’re actually looking forward to it,” Denmark coach Kasper Hjulmand said. “We’re happy that people will be there and that the fans are back in the stadium, though obviously we would have loved it if half the stadium was dressed in Danish colors. Our motivation is to silence the spectators, but we know it’s going to be difficult.” 

Denmark have not let up on the offensive end at all. They have taken 90 shots on goal, third most at Euro 2020, behind only Italy and Spain. Of those shots, 37 have been on target, second most at this competition, behind only Spain. These are positive metrics for Denmark to bank on against an England team that has not conceded a goal all tournament.

They will, however, have to be more precise while passing the ball because they have an accuracy of just 82.4 percent, exactly five percentage points lower than England. They have kept more possession (54.3 percent) than England, which might change by the end of this match. 

Betting Pick 1: England -162

The English are simply too strong for Denmark in this fixture. Unlike some of England’s previous matches, I’m expecting the ball to move across phases much quicker against a tired Danish unit. That will give England plenty of chances to break effectively. One or more of those chances should be taken easily, considering the quality that is expected at the receiving end of those passes with Harry Kane and Raheem Sterling up front. Denmark will not be pushed over but England will not want to take this to extra time, as Southgate has already suggested. 

Betting Pick 2: OVER 2.5 goals (+130)

The sportsbooks do not expect Denmark to score in this one. I actually think they will break England’s impressive streak with persistence on the offensive end. However, England will have too much in the final third in a rare high-scoring match at Euro 2020. England will not care much about their defensive record as long as they can guarantee progress. A bit of a wild prediction but I’m going 3-1 to England.