If Finland win on Wednesday, they will confirm implausible qualification into the Round of 16 of Euro 2020 after their emotion-filled Sportsbook victory against Denmark. Russia (8-0-3, 5-6 ATS) will also need at least a point on Wednesday to give themselves a fair chance to qualify from an intense Group B. 

Sportsbook Odds Analysis

As the tournament progresses, you won’t see massive deviations of the odds from Sportsbook to current values. That’s true for this particular match as well. Finland started as +400 underdogs but are now +514, which is the biggest movement in this moneyline market. Russia, who started as -150 favorites, are now -148 in the Euro 2020 odds to win this match. The draw has shifted from +275 at Sportsbook to +276 currently.

Finland News & Notes

Finland will need some time to recover from their first match of this tournament. It was a moment of reckoning for soccer on the whole as Christian Eriksen collapsed on the pitch during Finland’s Sportsbook encounter with Denmark. The match resumed a few hours later after it was initially suspended.

Joel Pohjanpalo scored the only goal to lead Finland to a 1-0 victory on that evening, also throwing the group into disarray as both Russia and Denmark lost on the first matchday. You could see what the match meant when Lukas Hradecky saved a penalty from Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg in the second half. The final whistle sparked wild celebrations in the Finland camp on a difficult day for football.

That win was so important because it will change how Finland play moving forward. A point against Russia might be enough to ensure that they go through as the second-placed team in the group. Finland and coach Markku Kanerva will want to avoid any semblance of complacency after that famous win against Denmark. Sauli Vaisanen has been withdrawn from the tournament with an injury.

“We have to improve our attacking. We need to create more chances and score more goals,” Kanerva said. “This is going to be a tough game for sure. Russia pretty much have to win this game; they will be hurt and they will be aggressive. Everything in the group is open.”

Russia News & Notes

Russia were no match for Belgium in their Sportsbook encounter right from the outset. An early goal from Romelu Lukaku set the tone for the rest of the match as Belgium cruised to a 3-0 victory in front of Russian supporters in St. Petersburg.

Russia are no pushovers, though. They will have to come away with more than a point here to improve their chances of qualification, which is not implausible considering Denmark lost their Sportsbook match. The key, however, lies in winning against Finland on Wednesday. If they don’t, they might find themselves out of the tournament soon. All the pressure is on Russia, then.

Russia will have to find a way to push past Finland’s defense, especially considering there are some injury and unavailability concerns in the camp. Andrey Mostovoy will not be available after testing positive for COVID-19. A calf injury to Yuri Zhirkov sustained against Belgium and a head injury to Daler Kuzyaev will likely keep them out of this match as well. Artem Dzyuba’s role assumes greater significance in this match considering Russia will have to score in order to stay alive and kicking in this group for a little while longer.

“Finland have just beaten Denmark; they are a tough, organized team. They defend deep and are dangerous on the counter,” Russia coach Stanislav Cherchesov said. “We’ll have to do our best to break them down and avoid giving them chances on the break.”

Betting Pick 1: Russia -150

Firstly, Russia will be keen to impress in front of their supporters in St. Petersburg. It won’t be an easy task to break down the confidence, momentum and defense of this Finland team. But this is not a terrible place to be in the group for Russia after their Sportsbook defeat to Belgium. There is a personnel advantage, particularly with Dzyuba in front, which will work beautifully if they can score early and force Finland to make the running.

Betting Pick 2: UNDER 2.5 goals (-150)

This is not an easy market and it certainly wouldn’t be an error to consider the OVER because of the higher payout. However, betting decisions are best made based on probability and likelihood. The Finland team scored one goal in their Sportsbook match but I can’t see them keeping another clean sheet here. I don’t see them scoring either, so it will come down to how many Russia score. A safe assumption would be UNDER three goals.