In arguably the most delectable clash of the group stage of Euro 2020, Germany will host France in the group of death on Tuesday from Allianz Arena. Both Germany (7-0-1) and France (8-1-1) are so close together in the Euro 2020 moneyline odds that the draw is the most unlikely result. 

Sportsbook Odds Analysis

From Sportsbook, the odds have moved furthest for Germany. They started at odds of +222, but those Euro 2020 odds have shortened to +186. The draw has lingered around the same since Sportsbook (+215 at Sportsbook, +222 currently). The odds for France have lengthened, moving from +147 at Sportsbook to +177. Odds have not been closer for any other match of the tournament so far. Much further movement in this match is unlikely unless there is a significant injury.

France News & Notes

France played with full-strength squads across both their international friendlies in the lead-up to the main stage. They first beat Wales 3-0 before beating Bulgaria by the same scoreline on June 9.

France haven’t lost their first game of the European Championship for 61 years; the only other time was back in 1960 when they lost 5-4 to Yugoslavia. As far as probability goes, France will have to work the hardest they ever have to continue that impressive record. On a side note, coach Didier Deschamps will be looking for a unique place in history as the only person to win the World Cup and the European Championship as player and manager.

“I am friends with Joachim Low. We like each other. We have met several times,” Deschamps said of his relationship with the German coach. “When we face each other in a match, we are both focused on the event and on our players. I have a lot of respect for what he has done and, again, his longevity with Germany at such a high level despite the few difficult – sometimes very difficult – times he has been through.”

France don’t have too many injury concerns despite Karim Benzema coming off against Bulgaria with an apparent knock. He should be fine to lead the attack against Germany along with Antoine Griezmann and Kylian Mbappe. Paul Pogba and N’Golo Kante will be crucial in the middle of the field in their respective roles, particularly against the preferred high press of Germany. Hugo Lloris will start in goal for France.

Germany News & Notes

Germany have had a typical run into this tournament as they first drew 1-1 with Denmark before an absolute annihilation of Latvia 7-1. Scoring seven is not new for Germany, who will move the ball with more vigor than any other team at the European Championship. That’s just how they play their soccer, making for increasingly compelling viewing.

Jonas Hofmann and Leon Goretzka are not expected to play any part in this game with their injuries. There are still plenty of attacking options for Low to utilize. Toni Kroos, Ilkay Gundogan, Joshua Kimmich and Serge Gnabry will occupy the middle of the field in various capacities, while Thomas Muller and Kai Havertz will be entrusted with converting chances into goals in the final third of the pitch.

“France have the most adaptable team in the world. We know how they play, yet they are nearly impossible to predict,” Low said about this matchup. “We have a good dynamic in our team, the atmosphere is very good. If we deploy our strengths properly, we can go into this match with confidence.”

From a defensive standpoint, Manuel Neuer will start in goal, with Antonio Rudiger, Mats Hummels and Matthias Ginter ahead of him. These back three will be key players to prevent a successful counter-attack.

Betting Pick 1: Draw +222

If this match was played at a neutral venue, France would have been favored. At Allianz Arena, Germany will receive a boost from their home supporters. France certainly has an advantage, albeit very slight, in terms of quality of personnel, but that might not mean much if Germany score early. In handicapping, when a match is as tight as this to predict, that usually shows on the pitch as well because even subtle factors can’t separate them.

Betting Pick 2: UNDER 2.5 goals (-125)

These two teams prefer differing approaches to the soccer ball. Germany can tear apart opponents with their quick-moving style of soccer that helps them create several more opportunities in the final third. France, on the other hand, transition slowly and methodically across phases, which is why N’Golo Kante is such an important player in their squad. France have the ability to counteract that German press for long periods of time. As a result, a 1-1 draw is not an unlikely result.