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Winning Group A At Stake as Italy Host Resurgent Wales

Nicolo Barella's team Italy are the favorites in the Italy vs Wales odds for Euro 2020.

Italy (12-0-0, 11-1 ATS) are already through to the Round of 16 but they would still want to top this group by beating a solid Wales team in Rome on Sunday afternoon in a Group A fixture in Euro 2020. Italy begin as substantial favorites in their quest to continue their exceptional unbeaten run across competitions.

Italy vs Wales
  • Date/time: June 20, 12 p.m. ET
  • Stadium: Stadio Olimpico, Rome
  • Opening odds: Italy -250, Draw +320, Wales +800 (Line History)
  • Italy vs Wales (Matchup Report)

Opening Odds Analysis

Italy’s odds have lengthened rather significantly (-250 at opening to -196 currently). That’s because while they have been simply sensational this season, they have ensured their qualification into the Round of 16. That could mean Roberto Mancini might rest some of his bigger stars against Wales, exactly like he had hoped at the start of the tournament. The price of the draw has moved from +320 at opening to +301 currently. Wales, who started as +800 underdogs, are now at +782 to beat Italy in a slight adjustment to their odds.

Italy News & Notes

Italy have brought a lot of confidence and momentum to the start of this tournament. They have scored three goals apiece in both of their matches so far, against Turkey and Switzerland, after failing to consistently find the net in previous editions. That will please Mancini immensely because they have done that while also maintaining defensive soliditythe back end. Italy are yet to concede a goal at Euro 2020.  

Italy will want to ensure they finish at the top of the group so there won’t be a complacent approach, but Mancini will also want to ensure that his players aren’t run into the ground come the knockout stages. This is a short, high-intensity tournament so keeping his players fresh will be imperative to success in the Round of 16.

"We have so many options in attack. We must try to give 100% in every game. There's another important test coming up and we will aim to win that too,” Domenico Berardi said about their approach to Wales.

It will be interesting to see how exactly Italy set up in this match. A point will be enough to keep them at the top of the group but don’t expect them to go into the game wanting just a draw. That’s not how they have managed to stay unbeaten for 29 matches across competitions. If they don’t lose to Wales, this will be Italy’s joint-longest unbeaten run ever, after also achieving the remarkable feat in the period between November 1935 and July 1939.

Wales News & Notes

Wales, as expected, have been tough to beat at this competition. Credit where it’s due as they have scored vital goals and have also remained compact defensively against some solid teams, including Switzerland and Turkey. Wales first drew to Switzerland before beating Turkey to open up a plethora of options to ensure they qualify into the Round of 16. A point against Italy is the simplest guarantee of booking their spot in the Round of 16.

"We can't plan for [qualification], if four points is good enough to get through then brilliant. We'll pick a team and formation to go out against Italy and compete, and get the win. We want to win every game we play, and it's no different on Sunday,” Wales manager Robert Page said.

With four points already, Wales have an excellent chance to qualify even without a win against Italy as the top four third-placed teams will advance. However, Wales will not want to tempt fate after so much diligence in the early part of this tournament. Page is unlikely to experiment much with his squad, and should still utilize his playmakers and key assets in order to ensure they at least have a chance to take a draw out of this match.

Kieffer Moore has been exceptional as the solitary striker and could continue to occupy that position against Italy, particularly with his aerial strength and prowess. Gareth Bale and Daniel James will be the playmakers, entrusted with, in part, feeding Moore with deliveries in the air, as was the case in their match against Turkey.

Betting Pick 1: Italy -196

Italy are unlikely to dawdle in this match. It will all come down to the formation and players Mancini deploys. If Wales win, then Italy will finish as the second-placed team in this group. That’s not an advantageous position to be in for ease of opponents in the knockout stages.

As a result, Mancini will still play his stars, and substitute them early. That should still result in an Italy win. This won’t be a thrilling encounter, particularly because both teams will want to escape without injury concerns.

Betting Pick 2: Under 2.5 goals (-125)

Italy have historically not scored too many goals at this tournament. The first two matches showed us how they can move the ball quickly and pick out teams on the counter, if required. Italy’s modus operandi is usually to stay solid at the back and transition as required. Wales might not have the offensive depth to break that in Rome.

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Shark Bites
  • Italy’s recent record is 12-0-0.
  • Italy have an 11-1 ATS record.
  • Wales’ recent record is 5-3-2.