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Spain Heavy Favorites Against Giant Killers Switzerland

Spain and Switzerland meet in the Euro 2020 Quarter Finals

Spain (10-4-0, 5-9 ATS) and Switzerland (6-4-2, 5-7 ATS) will open the quarter final schedule from Euro 2020 with a match in St. Petersburg on Friday. Spain will start as heavy favorites despite Switzerland high on confidence after knocking out title contenders France in the Round of 16.

Switzerland vs Spain
  • Date/Time: : July 2, 12 p.m. ET
  • Stadium: St. Petersburg Stadium, St. Petersburg
  • Opening Odds: Switzerland +475, Draw +260, Spain -162
  • Switzerland vs Spain Matchup Report

Opening Odds Analysis

As expected, there isn’t major movement of the odds since opening. Switzerland will start as massive underdogs, a tag they are rather accustomed to, to beat Spain and advance to the semis in normal time. Their odds opened at +475 and have now moved to +512. The draw, while unlikely, has been quite lucrative in the Round of 16. The price of the draw is presently +289 after opening at +260. Spain are huge favorites to win in normal time. That becomes additionally crucial because Spain will want to ensure there is no luck of the penalty shootout, and would want to ensure this is done within regulation time.

Switzerland News & Notes

Switzerland will be overjoyed with the success they have achieved in the Round of 16. This was billed to be one of the best fixtures of Euro 2020 with France expected to face Spain in the quarters. Instead, a fantastic save from Yan Sommer off Kylian Mbappe’s penalty sparked wild celebrations as fans were put through an emotional rollercoaster with Switzerland trailing France 3-1 in the closing stages of the match.

That match came alive in the second half. There was a missed penalty in normal time from Switzerland but they put in a nerveless display of strength in the shootout against France. They will be overly confident but there is a sense that the emotional toll of that result could have an impact against Spain. If Switzerland can collect their composure and energy, this could be an interesting fixture. However, Switzerland will miss the services of Granit Xhaka in this match after he picked up a yellow card against France.

"The next step is always the most important. We want to make it to the next round, even if we're facing one of the favourites in Spain. We need to show our hunger on the pitch and I'm confident they will. We will miss a player like Xhaka a lot but what I want to see against Spain is that everyone gives a little more, not just to replace him but also to beat Spain. We want to progress, with all the respect for the opponent. Xhaka will take a different role but everyone in the squad will support and help the team,” Switzerland coach Vladimir Petković said.

Switzerland are currently fourth in the tournament in shots taken (60). Of those 60 shots, 20 have been on target, 26 off target and 14 have been blocked by opposing defenders. This will be important because Spain will not be dispossessed of the ball easily. When Switzerland get the ball in shooting range, they will take shots on goal. If one manages to find its way past Unai Simon, this could be another thriller. From a defensive standpoint, Switzerland have attempted 63 tackles, third most at Euro 2020. However, only 27 of those have been successful tackles.

Spain News & Notes

Spain have also come through an emotional match against Croatia, which swung one way and then the next within very short time periods. Eventually, Croatia were good enough to level that match 3-3 after normal time. A spectacular goal from Alvaro Morata – well controlled from a cross and then a fizzing finish – broke the deadlock in extra time. Spain came through 5-3 to advance into the quarters.

"People said that Spain couldn't score, but I never thought that. When you work hard, you get rewards. I don't care who we play in the quarter-finals. We will go into any game believing that we depend on ourselves – driven by pride and ambition,” Ferran Torres said.

Spain are likely to stick with the same combination that worked so well against Croatia. Ferran Torres, Morata and Pablo Sarabia should make up the offensive core while Unai Simon will continue at goal after a stellar performance against Croatia, including a match-saving block in extra time.

Switzerland will need to be at their best across phases because Spain have already shown how effective they can be, offensively and defensively. Spain have 272 official attacks in Euro 2020, comfortably the most at this tournament. They have also won 28 corners, also highest at this competition. The more relevant stat in this context is probably their possession rate, which is 67.5 percent, a fair distance ahead of the rest. They have done this through sharp, precise passing (Spain have a passing accuracy rate of 89 percent). Spain have completed the most passes at Euro 2020 (2,945) on most passes attempted (3,304).

Betting Pick 1: Spain -153

Spain will be keen to ensure there are no flutters because Switzerland already have a history of knocking big teams out after normal time. Even though Spain conceded three goals against Croatia, there are no problems with their defense. That should help immensely because keeping a tight defensive line against Switzerland is close to half the job done. Spain also have enough on the offensive end to score a goal or two and then enjoy match management: keeping the ball, taking time out of the clock and playing for the whistle.

Betting Pick 2: Under 2.5 goals (-150)

The previous match for both these teams was an anomaly on a large scale. That should not happen here even though Switzerland like to take shots on goal. Spain will keep a compact defense, keep the ball for long periods and subject Switzerland to early running. That will, in turn, open up the match in the second half. The UNDER looks quite tempting in this one.

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Shark Bites
  • Spain have a 10-4-0 recent record.
  • Spain’s OVER/UNDER record is 7-6-1.
  • Switzerland have a 5-9 ATS record.