The 12th round of action in Italy’s Serie A is set to get underway this coming weekend and on Saturday evening, high-flying Napoli will look to put pressure on champions and table toppers Juventus. With the Old Lady not playing until Sunday, Carlo Ancelotti’s side has the perfect opportunity to close the gap at the top of the table to just three points – temporarily, at least.
- Genoa has not won in five Serie A games.
- Napoli has won three of its last four Serie A matches.
- Napoli has won 12 of the past 22 meetings between these two teams.
Genoa set to struggle against in-form Napoli
This match would appear to be an uphill struggle from the get-go for home side Genoa. The Rossoblu have not won any of their last five league clashes, losing their last two, and as a result have slipped down to 13th in the standings.
Of a more pressing concern is Genoa’s poor defensive record. The team is leaking goals at a rate of over two goals per game, which is relegation form, and with Napoli’s rampant attack, that record is unlikely to improve this weekend.
Napoli has won three of its last four league matches and furthermore has scored in each of its last eight Serie A contests. They currently sit third in the table with eight wins to their name already, and they are the joint top scorers in the league, alongside Juventus, with 24 strikes so far.
Napoli comes into this match as the clear favorite to take all three points. You can back the visitors to win on the road at just -175, while Genoa, despite home advantage, is out at +450 to get a vital victory. A draw is priced in the middle at +300.
Napoli should cruise to victory
We do not envisage too many problems for Napoli in this match against a Genoa side that is struggling for both form and confidence. While it is never easy trying to predict the exact scoreline of any given game, a comfortable 3-1 win for the visitors is priced competitively at +1100 and, given the recent form of both teams, could well be worth backing in the circumstances.
That in turn would allow you to back OVER 2.5 goals in the game, which comes in short at -138, as well as both teams to score, which is also at the low price of -125. In order to try to increase any potential winnings from this tie, it is worth considering combo betting, where you can opt for multiple outcomes at higher odds.
For example, a Napoli win coupled with both teams to score comes in at the much higher price of +225, while an away win with OVER 2.5 goals in the game is at +130. OVER 2.5 goals and both teams to score is priced at +120.
Napoli to make a fast start again?
Last time out against Empoli, Napoli raced into the lead after only nine minutes as they went on to thrash their opponents 5-1, rarely giving them a look in. We are expecting Ancelotti, despite being away from home on this occasion, to try to employ similar tactics on this occasion.
We therefore believe it could be worth backing OVER 0.5 goals in the first 10 minutes at a price of +300. Napoli is at double that (+600) to be in front by the end of that period of time.
In short, this is a match that Napoli should be controlling from start to finish. You can back the away side to win either half at just -334, while they are at +137 to score in both halves and +300 to go on and win both halves.
Ancelotti and his charges have been presented a chance to cut Juventus’ lead at the top, and it is one they must take if they are to remain in the title race as the winter months arrive. With Genoa badly out of form, this should be a comfortable evening’s work for the visitors.
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