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Italy hopes to build on victory over Poland when Portugal comes to town

Cristiano Biraghi Italy Portugal UEFA Nations League soccer betting odds

Italy hosts Portugal in the UEFA Nations League on Saturday hoping to build on its last-minute victory last time out against Poland. Portugal sits two points clear at the top of the group, meaning that a win for the Azzurri would help them leapfrog their opponents prior to the final round of matches in Europe’s newest competition.

  • Portugal has won the two most recent meetings between these two teams.
  • Italy has won 17 of the 25 previous meetings between the two countries.
  • Portugal has won its last three matches in a row across all competitions.

Italy needs to build on momentum

One of the biggest problems for Italy over the last year or so has been a lack of consistency. The former world champions failed to qualify for the World Cup earlier this summer and have looked far from convincing in the UEFA Nations League so far, losing 1-0 to Portugal before snatching victory over Poland with a 93rd-minute strike.

Portugal, by way of comparison, has been in much better form as it heads to the San Siro for this clash. The team has won its last three matches in a row and will come into this encounter full of confidence – they are certainly capable of taking all three points against an Italy side that does not seem quite sure of itself right now.

Nevertheless, it is Italy that comes into this match as the favorite to pick up its second successive victory in the UEFA Nations League. You can back the home side to take the points at +125, while Portugal is out at +260 to do the same. A draw is priced in the middle at +230.

Portugal could cause an upset

But with the Portuguese in much better form ahead of this key contest, we fancy their chances of causing an upset in Milan. It is of course never easy trying to predict the exact scoreline of a match, but a 2-1 away win here is priced competitively at +1100, and may well be worth backing when you consider the recent form of both teams.

A result like that would then allow you to back OVER 2.5 goals in the game, which is at +137, and both teams to score, which comes in at +100. However, you could try to boost your potential earnings even further by making some combo bets – selecting multiple outcomes from the game at higher odds.

For example, a Portugal win combined with both teams to score is priced much higher at +650, with an Italy win and both teams scoring at the shorter price of +400. You can also back an away victory and OVER 2.5 goals in the game at +550 (again, an Italy win with OVER 2.5 goals comes in shorter, at +300).

Italy needs points, consistency

There is no doubt that the pressure will be on Italy, with home advantage and a need to take all three points. With that in mind, we may well see Italy come racing out of the blocks, trying to dictate the tempo from the first whistle, and you can back OVER 0.5 goals in the first 10 minutes at +400, with Italy at +900 to be ahead within that time period.

However, we are still expecting Portugal to continue its fine form – they have recently won on the road at Poland in this competition, and against Scotland in a friendly. Portugal could well come from behind to win this match and you can back them to do that here at a price of +1200.

Portugal is at just +110 to win either half, while they are at the higher price of +450 to score in both halves. But who could get the goals?

Italy forward Ciro Immobile is at the shortest odds to get on the scoresheet and you can back the Lazio man at +150 to net at any time during the match. For Portugal, Andre Silva is at +225 to net in the 90 minutes, while you can back him at +600 to score either the first or the last goal of the game.