As the MLS season comes to a close we've got two more weeks of regular-season action. Last week, I went 1-2 on my bets. My record is a respectable 21-15 (58%) with +4.89 units of profits.
Here's a recap of my three bets from last week:
- O3.5 Atlanta-Columbus (+115): Only 2 goals in this one. *Sad emoji*
- O2.5 New York-Toronto (-185): Three goals all from the Red Bulls who've covered O2.5 in 10 of 14 games.
- LA Galaxy ML (+280): I backed the wrong horse here. *Double sad emoji*
Here are my three bets for this Friday's group of matches on October 14:
MLS Expert Pick #1: UNDER 2.5 Goals (+120)
The Game: Dallas vs Colorado Rapids, October 14, 8:30PM ET
I like the UNDER in this matchup. We're looking at a matchup between the two worst offense teams in the West. Colorado is 13th for goals (36) and expected goals (34.2) while Colorado is 14th for goals (25) and expected goals (33.9).
Dallas has seen the total go below 2.5 goals four times in their last five games.
MLS Expert Pick #2: New England ML (+320)
The Game: Nashville vs New England, October 14, 8:30PM ET
Nashville are struggling hard with one win in their last 11 games. What's worse is they've only scored two goals in their last four games. Home losses to Orlando and Seattle don't give me much confidence in Nashville to turn the tide on their seasons. It doesn't help that 2022-23 Golden Boot winner Hany Mukhtar goalless in his last four games.
New England have scored twice in their last two away games. At the rate Nashville is playing, that's enough production to pick up all three points.
MLS Expert Pick #3: UNDER 3.5 (-120)
The Game: LA Galaxy vs Real Salt Lake, October 14, 10:30 PM ET
I know that LA has seen the total go OVER 3.5 goals six times in the last seven games. but nearly 60% of the goals scored in those games were scored by their opponents.
Salt Lake isn't great at scoring or generating scoring chances with 1.4 goals and 1.0 expected goals. This stays UNDER 3.5 goals.
