A battle of Latin American countries ensues on Monday when Mexico and Brazil meet at the Cosmos Arena with a spot in the World Cup quarterfinals on the line. The far better team on paper, Brazil is unbeaten against Mexico in four all-time World Cup matchups and La Canarinha comes into this Round of 16 fixture with far more momentum.
Betting odds at Sportsbook have the tournament faves installed as -215 moneyline chalk with the underdog Mexicans coming back at +700. The draw has the action balanced at +330 and the five-time World Cup winners are 1-goal favorites according to the spread.
A total of 2.5 could have bettors peeking UNDER with each of the last four meetings between these teams seeing two or fewer goals.
- Brazil and Mexico drew 0-0 when they met on Matchday 2 at the 2014 World Cup.
- Mexico has lost in the Round of 16 in six straight World Cups.
- Brazil has kept a clean sheet in 10 of its last 13 World Cup matches (including qualifying).
El Tri Will Try to Replicate 2014 Performance
While this matchup is far from ideal for manager Juan Carlos Osorio, Mexico tends to step up when playing bigger competition and he can help draw inspiration from their group stage performance against Brazil at the 2014 World Cup that resulted in a nil-nil draw.
The only side to hold Brazil off the scoresheet at the 2014 Finals – not including the Netherlands in that farce of a bronze-medal game – Mexico will not be intimidated in this matchup.
With a 1-0 upset win over Germany already on their 2018 World Cup resume, Mexico revels in the underdog role and their +340 odds to advance past Brazil will be nothing more than great bulletin board material.
A Daunting Record is Likely to be Extended for Mexico
If they were to fail in this spot, however, Mexico would make it a seventh straight loss in the Round of 16. That’s not a record El Tri are keen on advancing and it should only add to their already staggering list of motivations.
The main issue for Mexico is that Brazil is a spectacular team that’s favored to win the World Cup for many justifiable reasons.
Brazil has the most threatening attack at the competition, they’re well-managed and their star forward Neymar might be the best player remaining in the tournament.
Brazil’s Backline is Incredibly Underrated
When talking about Brazil and their marvelous attacking players, it’s easy to forget just how solid the Green and Yellow are defensively. Allowing just one goal this calendar year, Brazil has kept a clean sheet in 10 of its last 13 World Cup competitions (including qualifying) and Mexico is not exactly the most lethal offensive team in Russia.
Brazil could, however, be without Real Madrid man Marcelo for the start of the match after the dynamic defender sustained an injury to his back against Serbia. This would be a massive knock to La Canarinha at both ends of the pitch given Marcelo’s pace and control on the ball.
Felipe Luis is a serious downgrade at the fullback position and he could be exposed by Mexico’s speedy counter if he gets too far forward.
Best Bets for Brazil-Mexico
A punt on this thing to go to extra time at +315 wouldn’t be the worst bet you could make. Mexican goaltender Guillermo Ochoa will have to have a massive performance for that to happen but he’s definitely up for it.
That said, my favorite bet for this game is a simple UNDER 2.5 bet at -105. Goal-scoring chances will be few and far between for the Tricolor and Brazil hasn’t been all that clinical around the goalmouth.
