France vs Poland Picks & Odds: Les Bleus Open Knockout Stage as Massive Favorites

France aim to continue their march towards a second straight FIFA World Cup title when they take on Poland on Sunday in round of 16 action. After clinching a berth in the knockout stage with wins over Australia and Denmark, Les Bleus dropped a 1-0 decision to Tunisia in their group stage finale but still ended up finishing atop the Group D table. Poland closed out their group stage schedule with a 2-0 loss to Argentina loss and a 1-1-1 record, but still managed to hang on to second place on the Group C table, ahead of Mexico, on the strength of tiebreakers.

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France vs Poland Sportsbook Odds 

Pegged as -300 favorites on the round of 16 Sportsbook odds, France have since vaulted to -345 chalk. Poland have faded to distant +1100 underdogs, and the total has held steady at 2.5. Sunday morning’s matchup marks the first non-friendly meeting between these European rivals since 1995 and their first date at the World Cup since 1982. While France have earned 1-0 win in two of three friendlies with the Eagles, they were forced to settle for draws in two Euro 96 qualifying matches and dropped a 3-2 decision when they faced Poland in a battle for third place at the 1982 World Cup. Overall, the French have not topped Poland in non-friendly action since posting a 4-1 win in Euro qualifying back in 1967.

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Mbappe Leading the Charge for Defending World Champions

France opened this year’s tournament on a tear, rolling to a 4-1 win over the Socceroos, which marked the third time since the start of the knockout stage in 2018 that they have scored at least four goals in a World Cup match. Striker Olivier Giroud powered the French attack with a pair of goals, extending a productive run with the national team that has produced five goals in seven matches.

However, the true star of this team at this year’s tournament has been Kyllian Mbappe. The Paris Saint-Germain superstar potted an insurance goal in the team’s win over Australia and followed up by scoring both goals in France’s 2-1 win over Denmark that launched them into the knockout stage. 

Mbappe’s three goals and one assist have helped vault him to the top of the odds to claim Golden Ball honors. The talented 23-year-old also takes an impressive track record at the World Cup into Sunday’s contest after scoring three times in knockout stage action during Les Bleus’ drive to glory four years ago.

Goals Coming at a Premium for Poland

Poland managed to back into the knockout stage despite getting outclassed by Argentina in the 2-0 loss that closed out their group stage. However, the French look beyond this talented group at their own peril. The Eagles allowed a goal for the first time in five matches across all competitions in Thursday’s defeat. And while this squad is not known for their lengthy runs at the World Cup, it is tough to ignore that they have advanced to the semi-finals in two of their past three knockout stage appearances.

After settling for a scoreless draw with Mexico in their group stage opener, Poland received a lift from Robert Lewandowski, who finally netted his first-ever World Cup goal in the team’s 2-0 win over Saudi Arabia. Poland’s all-time scoring leader and team captain also set up a goal in that contest.

However, Poland will need Lewandowski to build on that performance, which marked the first time the Barcelona star has scored for the national team in seven outings. It also extended a steady run for the Eagles, who have found the back of the net in five of their past six when Lewandowski finds the back of the net. 

France vs Poland Game Prop: France to Record Shutout Win

Sports bettors should not be distracted by France’s 1-0 loss to Tunisia to close out the group stage in a match where Les Bleus had nothing to gain. Indeed, this is a team on a mission, and the ability to accomplish it after scoring six times in the group stage, and 17 times over their past seven World Cup contests. Conversely, goals have come at a premium for Poland, who have blanked in four of their past seven overall matches. With Lewandowski also struggling to light the lamp, France offers good value as a -130 bet at Sportsbook to tally a shutout win.

France: Keys to Win

France must overcome their recent tendency to start slow, which has produced just two total goals in the first 45 minutes in seven overall matches since the start of the most recent round of UEFA Nations League play. And while Qatar 2022 is quickly becoming the Kylian Mbappe Show, contributions from the supporting cast would taken the pressure off the team’s biggest stars.

Poland: Keys to Win

The best chance of Poland knocking off the defending world champions will come in the form of a dominating performance from Robert Lewandowski, who has now scored four of the Eagles' past six goals in major tournament play. Equally important will be the continued steady play from goalkeeper  Wojciech Szczęsny, who has blanked opponents in five of his past seven appearances with the national team.

Soccer Computer Pick: Poland +1100

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