Sweden and Switzerland face off Tuesday in a match that oddsmakers have decided is the closest of all the World Cup Round of 16 fixtures. That said, these knockout games have not been playing out the way the bookies have expected so we can’t rely on just the odds for an accurate picture of this matchup.
Taking a quick peek at the betting lines at Sportsbook, the Swiss are +170 moneyline favorites and the Swedes are coming back at +200. The draw can be had at +200 and the total is at 2 with the UNDER priced at -125.
Now, let’s break down the football to see where we might find a betting edge in this Round of 16 contest.
- Switzerland is unbeaten in 16 of its last 17 World Cup matches (including qualifiers).
- Sweden and Switzerland each have 10 wins in 27 all-time meetings in all competitions.
- Of the 6 games SWE and SUI have played at the 2018 World Cup, 5 have had 2 or more goals.
The Swiss Have Very Few Holes
They’re never going to blow you away with blinding skill or pace but the Swiss defend with the best of them and they don’t give up results. They’ve lost just one match in their last 17 World Cup games (including qualifying) and they managed a 1-1 draw with the World Cup favorites in the group stage.
Dropping just three points in qualification, Shaqiri and company had an easy time getting into the World Cup and they even earned a 2-0 win over Portugal in the first qualifier back in 2016.
Granit Xhaka has been the team’s X factor thus far and he could be asked a lot of in shutting down a Swedish counter that teams have struggled to defend at this tournament. The Arsenal midfielder has been winning tackles all over the park, helping his team hold the lion’s share of possession through Switzerland’s first three matches.
Sweden is not a team that’s going to bring the heat offensively so the Swiss will have to be careful not to walk into careless turnovers. The Blue-Yellow will be content to sit off the ball and wait for opportunities to fall their way so the Swiss cannot hold possession just for the sake of it in this match.
Who Will Take the All-Time Edge?
Dead even in their all-time head-to-head matchup (10 wins each with seven draws), one team will move the needle in their favor when it’s all done and dusted in St. Petersburg. It’s difficult to use that statistic when handicapping a soccer game with international results so scattered but it does help to illustrate just how close a matchup this is.
Should we Just Bet the OVER?
Of the six games Sweden and Switzerland have played at the 2018 World Cup, five have had two or more goals. We’ve already established that the total for this game is at 2 but it is interesting to see OVER priced at +105 given the aforementioned trend.
This fixture definitely has cagey potential given how these teams like to play but fading a trend like this is not easy – especially with these sides combining to score five goals in their Matchday 3 games.
Best Bets for Sweden vs Switzerland
As you might have guessed if you read the last paragraph, I’m taking OVER 2 at +105. It seems idiotic to think this game will have fewer than two goals when every single Round of 16 match so far has seen at least two goals cross the line.
Trends aside, both teams are capable of putting the ball in the net and with VAR in the mix, there’s a good chance one of these sides earns a penalty.
I’m also going to lay the chalk on Switzerland to advance at -120. I rate the Swiss as the better side and to be perfectly frank, I don’t care to watch any more of this park-the-bus-and-counter style of football that Sweden likes to play.
Once the Swedes are knocked out, Russia will be the only team remaining in the bracket that plays this soul-sucking form of the beautiful game and I fully expect Croatia to run the hosts out of the tournament.
