Odds Shift for Democratic Nevada Caucus

When Hillary Clinton descends on Las Vegas for the Nevada caucus on Saturday, the odds suggest the former Secretary of State is going to sweat this one out a little more than many anticipated only a short time ago.

Sportsbook is among those who has Clinton pegged as a heavy favorite at -400 to be the Democrats’ Presidential nominee but she’s set at just -140 this weekend to win the Nevada Caucus over Bernie Sanders, who is set at even money. 

“As the Nevada caucuses arrive, our odds reflect a small shift leaning towards Hillary Clinton,” says Verny, a Sports Analyst and oddsmaker with Sportsbook who prefers not to use his last name. “Our Sportsbook line between her and Bernie Sanders stated no favorite, however, we moved the line to -140 on Hillary after some square action taken on her side.” 

When you look around to other books, Hillary ranges from around -140 to -170 to win the Nevada Caucus, but it was only a week ago when the odds suggested Clinton was much more of a lock. Sportsbook had Clinton as high as -250 as of last Thursday but the UK based book dropped her to -150 this week when the most recent polls started making the picture a little less clear.  

A CNN/ORC poll from Wednesday said likely Democratic caucus attendees are split with 48 percent supporting Clinton and 47 percent siding with Sanders. 

Five-thirty-eight, meanwhile, suggests the juice on Clinton might just be worth a squeeze with their “polls-plus forecasting system“ predicting she has a 75 percent chance of winning on Saturday.  

Whatever happens, there odds and optics suggest Sanders has become less of a longshot in this campaign. Few expected him to obliterate Clinton in the New Hampshire Primary like he did (60.4 percent of the vote) and Clinton won by a fingernail in the Iowa Caucus amid some controversy. She is also listed as plus-money to be chosen as the next President for the first time since Joe Biden annouced he would not compete for the nomination.  

The Sanders campaign announced it raised $5.2 million in the 18 hours after winning in New Hampshire and he’s spent nearly twice as much on TV advertising. The Observer also wrote that Clinton has made four key mistakes in “writing off the Sanders campaign in Nevada”. So if you like the underdog, there are some out there suggesting it may not be a bad bet.   

What Sportsbook and most other books are really worried about is Donald Trump winning the U.S. Presidential election. Trump was +4000 to become President just nine months ago and bettors have hammered him down all the way to +225. 

“Square players started betting early on him. I will not be a happy person if he gets elected the new President,” says Verny. “As of late an interesting part of the public has been betting on Bernie Sanders (+500) but odds will reflect that on every shop that you go.”  

Trump is set at -500 to win Tuesday's Republican Nevada Caucus and -200 to win the Republican Presidential nomination.