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Super Bowl 53 Coin Toss Prop Bet Odds

UPDATE: The coin toss for Super Bowl 53 went to Tails with the Rams deferring to the Patriots. 

Super Bowl Sunday is for eating your body weight in wings, yelling at your friend for being a Pats fan and making prop bets. The coin toss is one of many Super Bowl 53 prop bets you can make with minimal effort because we’ll put in the effort so you don’t have to.

This year the Dark Army New England Patriots are facing off against the Los Angeles Rams. As with any professional sporting event, there will be a coin toss.

Coin Toss Prop Odds

Whether you’re a casual bettor looking to make your first-ever Super Bowl bet, or a seasoned pro, betting on the coin toss is a fun wager that can take your mind off the game for a second, allowing you to forget that the Evil Empire Patriots are going to take the field for their 11th appearance. Barf.

While some NFL bets require intense handicapping, the coin toss yields one of two results. You pick either HEADS or TAILS. That’s it. There’s a 50/50 chance that the coin lands on what you picked. You don’t have to factor in a player’s past performance or coaching decisions. You can, however, look at historical data – we’ll cover that below – to determine if you want to pick HEADS or TAILS.

Coin Toss Betting History

Jacob Bernoulli, a 17th-century Swiss mathematician, analyzed the statistics of random experiments with two possible outcomes. His Bernoulli trials became world-famous, mostly because there was nothing to do back then except math.

If Bernoulli were alive today, he would love football since every game starts with a Bernoulli trial (coin toss). He’d probably also be a Rams fan but one of those people who doesn’t shut up about how they loved the team when they were first in LA before their move to St. Louis. It’s like, we get it, you’ve always been a Rams fan. Relax.

Since the first Super Bowl, HEADS has come up 25 times and TAILS 27 times. The winner of the Super Bowl has won the coin toss 24 times with HEADS coming up 12 times (half). Bernoulli would consider this a success since it proves that the coin toss is random and won’t always land the same way for each Super Bowl.

Let’s break down the historical coin toss data for both teams.

Patriots Historical Coin Toss Data
Super Bowl #TossGame
Super Bowl 20LostLost to Bears
Super Bowl 31HEADSLost to Packers
Super Bowl 36LostWon against Rams
Super Bowl 38LostWon against Panthers
Super Bowl 39LostWon against Eagles
Super Bowl 42LostLost to Giants
Super Bowl 46HEADSLost to Giants
Super Bowl 49LostWon against Seahawks
Super Bowl 51LostWon against Falcons
Super Bowl 52HEADSLost to Eagles
Rams Historical Coin Toss Data
Super Bowl #TossGame
Super Bowl 14HEADSLost to Steelers
Super Bowl 34TAILSWon against Titans
Super Bowl 36HEADSLost to Patriots

If you look at these charts, you can see that in Super Bowl 36 when the Pats played the Rams, LA won the toss but lost the game. The Rams would also win the toss in Super Bowl 14 but lose to the Steelers. However, in Super Bowl 34, LA won the toss and the game. The Pats chose HEADS a lot and lost the coin toss three times in their 10 Super Bowl appearances.

Are the Patriots really bad at coin tosses or are the Rams really bad at winning Super Bowls? Because the Icelandic hockey team of villains from the D2: The Mighty Ducks New England has appeared in more Super Bowls than Los Angeles, it’s hard to say if the Rams have better luck on the coin toss. 

Does the Coin Toss Impact the Game?

The coin toss can have an impact on the game. Generally, teams that win the coin toss choose to receive the ball. When you receive the ball, you get the first scoring chance. Even if you don’t score a touchdown, you can still move the ball downfield enough to get into field-goal range. Unless the other team’s defense is that good and you can't move the ball at all. This is possible considering it’s the dang Super Bowl and you don’t get there with a crappy defense. If you’re the Rams, you want to win the toss and try to throw up some points on the Patriots on your first drive to give yourself some padding.

My Coin Toss Picks

I predict that the Agent Smith-led Patriots will win the coin toss by calling HEADS. Why? Because life isn’t fair. I also predict that the Pats will win the Super Bowl again, because, yeah, life isn’t fair. Plus, they generally call HEADS and often win Super Bowls.

I am not a conspiracy theorist, although I’ve seen every X-Files episode multiple times, but I do believe that the Patriots are the superior team (unfortunately) and Ramsay Bolton Roger Goodell will do everything in his power to ensure that the New England dynasty lives on forever until we all die of polio from people not vaccinating their kids.

I’m not saying the refs were paid to blow calls in the NFC and AFC championship games. However, there is something fishy about all this and it does not smell like fresh tilapia. It’s more like a rotten whale carcass washed up on Nantasket Beach.

Odds as of February 3 (9:30am EST) at Bovada

Will the coint toss Result be Heads or Tails?
  • Heads -105
  • Tails -105
What Team Will Win the Coin Toss?
  • New England -105
  • Los Angeles -105
Will The Team That Wins The Coin Toss Win The Game?
  • Yes -105
  • No -105
All-Time Super Bowl Coin Toss Results
Super Bowl #ScoresCoin TossCT WinnerGame Winner
Super Bowl 1Green Bay 35, Kansas City 10HeadsPackersPackers
Super Bowl 2Green Bay 33, Oakland 14TailsRaidersPackers
Super Bowl 3NY Jets 16, Baltimore 7HeadsJetsJets
Super Bowl 4Kansas City 23, Minnesota 7TailsVikingsChiefs
Super Bowl 5Baltimore 16, Dallas 13TailsCowboysColts
Super Bowl 6Dallas 24, Miami 3HeadsDolphinsCowboys
Super Bowl 7Miami 14, Washington 7HeadsDolphinsDolphins
Super Bowl 8Miami 24, Minnesota 7HeadsDolphinsDolphins
Super Bowl 9Pittsburgh 16, Minnesota 6TailsSteelersSteelers
Super Bowl 10Pittsburgh 21, Dallas 17HeadsCowboysSteelers
Super Bowl 11Oakland 32, Minnesota 14TailsRaidersRaiders
Super Bowl 12Dallas 27, Denver 10HeadsCowboysCowboys
Super Bowl 13Pittsburgh 35, Dallas 31HeadsCowboysSteelers
Super Bowl 14Pittsburgh 31, LA Rams 19HeadsRamsSteelers
Super Bowl 15Oakland 27, Philadelphia 10TailsEaglesRaiders
Super Bowl 16San Francisco 26, Cincinnati 21Tails49ers49ers
Super Bowl 17Washington 27, Miami 17TailsDolphinsRedskins
Super Bowl 18LA Raiders 38, Washington 9HeadsRaidersRaiders
Super Bowl 19San Francisco 38, Miami 16Tails49ers49ers
Super Bowl 20Chicago 46, New England 10TailsBearsBears
Super Bowl 21NY Giants 39, Denver 20TailsBroncosGiants
Super Bowl 22Washington 42, Denver 10HeadsRedskinsRedskins
Super Bowl 23San Francisco 20, Cincinnati 16Tails49ers49ers
Super Bowl 24San Francisco 55, Denver 10HeadsBroncos49ers
Super Bowl 25NY Giants 20, Buffalo 19HeadsBillsGiants
Super Bowl 26Washington 37, Buffalo 24HeadsRedskinsRedskins
Super Bowl 27Dallas 52, Buffalo 17HeadsBillsCowboys
Super Bowl 28Dallas 30, Buffalo 13TailsCowboysCowboys
Super Bowl 29San Francisco 49, San Diego 26Heads49ers49ers
Super Bowl 30Dallas 27, Pittsburgh 17TailsCowboysCowboys
Super Bowl 31Green Bay 35, New England 21HeadsPatriotsPackers
Super Bowl 32Denver 31, Green Bay 24TailsPackersBroncos
Super Bowl 33Denver 34, Atlanta 19TailsFalconsBroncos
Super Bowl 34St. Louis 23, Tennessee 16TailsRamsRams
Super Bowl 35Baltimore 34, NY Giants 7TailsGiantsRavens
Super Bowl 36New England 20, St. Louis 17HeadsRamsPatriots
Super Bowl 37Tampa Bay 48, Oakland 21TailsBuccaneersBuccaneers
Super Bowl 38New England 32, Carolina 29TailsPanthersPatriots
Super Bowl 39New England 24, Philadelphia 21TailsEaglesPatriots
Super Bowl 40Pittsburgh 21, Seattle 10TailsSeahawksSteelers
Super Bowl 41Indianapolis 29, Chicago 17HeadsBearsColts
Super Bowl 42NY Giants 17, New England 14TailsGiantsGiants
Super Bowl 43Pittsburgh 27, Arizona 23HeadsCardinalsSteelers
Super Bowl 44New Orleans 31, Indianapolis 17HeadsSaintsSaints
Super Bowl 45Green Bay 31, Pittsburgh 17HeadsPackersPackers
Super Bowl 46NY Giants 21, New England 17HeadsPatriotsGiants
Super Bowl 47Baltimore 34, San Francisco 31HeadsRavensRavens
Super Bowl 48Seattle 43, Denver 8TailsSeahawksSeahawks
Super Bowl 49New England 28, Seattle 24TailsSeahawksPatriots
Super Bowl 50Denver 24, Carolina 10TailsPanthersBroncos
Super Bowl 51New England 34, Atlanta 28 (OT)TailsFalconsPatriots
Super Bowl 52Philadelphia 41, New England 33  HeadsPatriotsEagles
Super Bowl 53New England vs Los AngelesTailsRams 

 

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