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2021 Wimbledon Odds: Predictions and Best Bets

Novak Djokovic is the heavy favorite in 2021 Wimbledon odds.

The ATP’s third major of the year, Wimbledon, starts Monday, June 28, in London. After not seeing a grass-court season in 2020 due to the pandemic, world No. 1 Novak Djokovic returns to defend his 2019 title.

A lot is on the line for Djokovic, who already has five Wimbledon titles to his name. If he were to win Wimbledon, he would tie Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal for the all-time Grand Slam record of 20 and, after having won the 2021 Australian Open and the 2021 French Open, he would be one step closer to completing a calendar slam.

Rod Laver was the last man to do it, in 1969. He’s also the only man to do it twice, first accomplishing the feat in 1962. Winning all four majors in the same year in this decade of tennis would be unreal. It all starts with winning Wimbledon.

Who are the ATP Wimbledon Betting Favorites? 

Odds to win 2021 Men’s Wimbledon
Novak Djokovic-120
Daniil Medvedev+650
Stefanos Tsitsipas+700
Roger Federer+1000
Matteo Berrettini+1200
Alexander Zverev+1400

Odds as of June 25 at BetOnline Sportsbook

The Surface

Grass court is the fastest surface on tour, which translates to complementing big servers. Tennis is all about rhythm, and big servers disrupt that rhythm. If a player has a big serve with a solid net and slice game, then that’s a dangerous player to be facing.

ATP Wimbledon Odds: Top Half of the Draw

The top half of the gentleman’s singles offers a friendly roadway to the final for Djokovic. His first stop starts with British wild card Jack Draper and he could see matches against Kevin Anderson, Gael Monfils and Andrey Rublev.

At first glance, facing Anderson and Monfils in the early rounds appears to be trouble for Djokovic. If this were 2015 to 2018, then I’d agree. However, there simply is no player in Djokovic’s quarter that poses a serious threat. His first true test likely won’t be until Rublev in the quarterfinal. Djokovic is the more consistent player, the better grass-court player and by the quarters he would have found a solid tempo to build off.

The rest of the draw is tougher to call. The second quarter has two-time Wimbledon winner Andy Murray and a cluster of next-gen players in Denis Shapovalov, Karen Khachanov, Alex de Minaur, three-time Wimbledon quarterfinalist Feliciano Lopez and former Wimbledon semifinalist Roberto Bautista Agut.

Multiple players in this quarter have the capability of reaching the semifinal. A third-round matchup between Murray and Shapovalov will be interesting to see how Shapo handles the pressure of facing the home-crowd favorite. Lopez’ fitness will be tested, Agut’s baseline game could be troublesome and de Minaur’s recent grass success of having made back-to-back semifinals could roll over into a breakout major.

My best guess, we could see Djokovic face Agut, Shapovalov or de Minaur in the semifinal.

ATP Wimbledon Odds: Bottom Half of the Draw

The bottom half of the gentleman’s singles is perhaps one of the toughest draws to call I’ve seen in a while. The Wimbledon committee must have had a meeting and decided to throw all of the big servers into the bottom half.

It’s not just one or two, either. You have Italian Matteo Berrettini, Americans John Isner, Reilly Opelka and Sam Querrey, Australian Nick Kyrgios, Croatian Marin Cilic, Germany’s Jan-Lennard Struff and Alexander Zverev, Canadian Felix Auger Aliassime, and then… eight-time Wimbledon champ Roger Federer with world No. 2 Daniil Medvedev.

While Djokovic has a friendly draw to the final, Federer would have a turbulent ride. Federer’s last Wimbledon title came in 2017 and the previous one in 2012. In 2021, he’s played eight matches and has gone 5-3. Federer certainly passed the eye test at Roland Garros, having made it through the Round of 32. However, he withdrew in the Round of 16 before facing Berrettini.

My worry: His stamina and mental state. Federer lost to Aliassime in the Round of 16 at Halle 6-4, 3-6, 2-6 but it was that third set that’s troubling. He got highly discouraged in that set in one of his most successful tournaments leading up to Wimbledon. Entering Halle, Federer had won in 10 of the last 17 years, including 2019. In all 17 years, he made the quarterfinal or better, including 13 finals in Halle. However, in that third set against Aliassime, Federer showed that he had given up on that match.

Berrettini is coming in with perhaps the most momentum, having won the second grass title of his career at Queen’s Club with 61 aces racked up en route to his fifth ATP title. He can slice, he can drop-shot, he has a heavy serve and forehand, and he’s coming into Wimbledon with confidence. Biggest concern: the only top 10 player he’s defeated was Dominic Thiem in 2019 at Shanghai. By every metric, Berrettini is a better player now who is winning 89 percent of his service games. This could be his breakout tournament.

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ATP Wimbledon Prediction

If you follow me on Twitter, then you are holding a nice +150 futures ticket on Djokovic to win.  

His current odds at -120 no longer offer value. However, it’s Djokovic’s tournament to lose. He’s won five Wimbledons in the last nine years, four in the last six. He holds a 95-18 career record on grass and is 50-8 in the last 52 weeks and 26-3 in 2021 alone. 

What Djokovic has going for him coming into Wimbledon: this year, he is making 66 percent of his first serves, which is one point higher than his career average. He’s increased his acing percentage by nearly one additional ace per match, the best ace-serving average of his career.

I mentioned how grass complements servers. Well, Djokovic had 102 aces at this year’s Australian Open, the most of any ATP player in the field. He’s the best returner in the world and has improved his serving, a dangerous combination.

Who else is making the final? I think it’s too tough to call. In a perfect world, we get a rematch of one of the most thrilling matches ever played, the 2019 Wimbledon Final between Djokovic and Federer that saw Djokovic win 7-6, 1-6, 7-6, 4-6, 13-12. 

However, Berrettini is looking to be the more likely opponent. If Berrettini were to fall, it could be to Isner in the third round or Zverev in the quarterfinal. The fourth quarter, it’s a toss-up between Federer, Querrey, Cilic, Medvedev or even Struff.

One thing I’m confident in, is that Djokovic is reaching the final. The question is, who will he face?

2021 Wimbledon Odds and Best Bets

Djokovic to win his quarter (no odds yet)

Djokovic to reach the final (no odds yet)

Djokovic to win (-120)

Long Shots to consider:

Berrettini +1200, Federer +1000, Zverev +1400, Medvedev +650, Querrey +35000.

How to Bet on Wimbledon 

Understanding how to read Wimbledon tennis odds is crucial in making smart picks. The best part is, you don’t need to be Steffi Graf in order to comprehend Wimbledon betting odds. Our tennis online gambling guide details how the sport is scored, so you can smash all of your men’s and women’s tennis wagers.