Odds Shark Top Sportsbooks
*Terms and Conditions apply to all bonus offers on this website. Visit operator for details.

Australian Open Men’s Semifinal: Tsitsipas vs Medvedev

Stefanos Tsitsipas and Daniil Medvedev will meet in the 2021 Australian Open men's semi-final.

On Thursday, Novak Djokovic handled his business by defeating 27-year-old qualifier Aslan Karatsev, sending Cinderella home at the Australian Open. With Djokovic set as one of the two contenders in the final, that leaves Stefanos Tsitsipas and Daniil Medvedev to fend for the other spot.

Australian Open Betting Odds: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Daniil Medvedev
  • Tsitsipas (+185) vs Medvedev (-210)
  • Tsitsipas +1 sets (+105) vs Medvedev -1 sets (-135)
  • Tsitsipas +2.5 sets (-260) vs Medvedev -2.5 sets (+200)

How They Got Here

Medvedev has been the beneficiary of a friendly draw. He is now on a 19-match win streak that includes titles at the 2020 Paris Masters and the 2020 ATP Cup. Having won both his first- and second-round matches in three carefree sets, he had a bit of a hiccup in his third-round match against Filip Krajinović.

Up two sets to love, Medvedev went on to lose the next two in an error-filled performance. He grew increasingly frustrated and at one point his coach walked out of the arena to allow Medvedev to regain his composure without the pressure of his presence.

Injury perhaps played a part because midway through, he did receive treatment on his left glute. The medical timeout certainly helped as he went on to bagel Krajinović, winning the fifth set 6-0 for the match.

The toughest opponent he faced was countryman Andrey Rublev in the quarterfinal. Don’t let the straight-sets win fool you. It was a grueling, daunting and exhausting match. The temperature was hot and the points were long. The rallies grew longer and the two even exhausted a 43-shot rally that showed its effects on both the rest of the way. Medvedev required a massage on his left thigh to relieve cramps after the match.

Tsitsipas has also had a bit of an easy draw. His hiccup came against Thanasi Kokkinakis in the second round when he lost the opening set, recorded 10 double faults and converted just five of 22 break points.

His best performance of the tournament – and perhaps in his career – came against Rafael Nadal in the quarterfinal. Down two sets to love, Tsitsipas fought through some of Nadal’s best tennis to force a third-set tiebreaker, in which Nadal committed a run of uncharacteristic errors to lose. Tsitsipas was focused and held his nerves to gain revenge for his straight-sets loss to Nadal in the 2019 Australian Open semifinals.

What’s on the Line

For Tsitsipas, this is his third Grand Slam semifinal. He reached the 2019 Australian Open semis and the 2020 French Open semis but has yet to reach the final in a Grand Slam singles event.

For Medvedev, he is also eyeing his first Grand Slam title. He made the final at the 2019 U.S. Open but ultimately lost to Nadal in a five-set match. He became the first Russian man to reach a Grand Slam final since Marat Safin at the 2005 Australian Open.

Semifinal Preview

Medvedev enjoys a 5-1 head-to-head record against Tsitsipas. The last time these two faced each other, Tsitsipas won 7-6 (5), 6-4 at the ATP Finals but that was back in 2019. Both players have since adapted and excelled in their games.

One thing Medvedev has going for him is his serve, which is on fire right now. In this tournament, he has blasted 57 aces compared to Tsitsipas’ 26 and has won 80 percent of his points from his first serve. No one has shown the ability to handle his serve, so for Tsitsipas, patience will be key. The opportunities for him will have to come from a Medvedev second serve.

Tsitsipas’ first serve will be important. He’ll need to keep his mind right to avoid double faults, which has been his weak point. He’s had 14, with 10 of them coming in his second-round match against Kokkinakis. If he can avoid those errors, keep the point short and work the forehand to dictate play, he might be able to get some break opportunities.

This comes down to who will handle tiebreaks, the stressful points because there will be tight games. This is a bet on who can handle the pressure spots and who can play clutch when it’s needed.

I’m sticking with Medvedev here and what has me locked is knowing that Tsitsipas did not take the win from Nadal. Instead, it was Nadal who let Tsitsipas in. He played perfect tennis for nearly three full sets but collapsed in the tiebreak. Nadal missed an easy overhead, dumped one into the net, shanked a routine backhand, then hit one long to lose the third set.

Then in the fifth set, he had four unforced errors to lose serve at five-all. It was a complete gift for Tsitsipas.

Is it possible that Medvedev could falter? Sure. But you’re not on a 19-match win streak if you are a player who doesn’t have his mental game right.

Nadal let Tsitsipas back in and I don’t see the same happening here against Medvedev.

Pick: Medvedev to win