Anthony Smith is the underdog vs Ryan Spann

Ulberg vs Smith Odds & Picks: Lionheart A Big Underdog

The UFC 303 shuffle continues, as Carlos Ulberg is now a -450 favorite over Anthony Smith (+350 underdog) as the veteran steps in for a short-notice replacement on the main card.

The Ulberg-Smith matchup tees up a fun main card for UFC 303, which includes the new headlining fight between Jiri Prochazka vs Alex Pereira.

Here's our full Ulberg vs Smith preview, with odds, best bets and predictions to help you win big on June 29.

Ulberg vs Smith Odds

UFC 303: Ulberg vs Smith Odds
Carlos Ulberg-450
Anthony Smith+350

Odds as of June 18

Per our odds calculator, a $100 bet on Ulberg at -450 pays out $122.22. The same $100 on Smith pays out $450.

How To Watch UFC 303: Pereira vs prochazka 2

  • Date/Time: June 29, 6 p.m. ET
  • Location: Las Vegas, Nevada
  • Arena: T-Mobile Arena
  • Where to Watch: ESPN+, PPV

Betting Preview: How Ulberg wins

The Kiwi's chiseled frame arms him with destructive power — not quite Pereira-level, but not too far off either. Ulberg has finished four of his six UFC wins, including a 12-second knockout of Alonzo Menifield on May 11.

Now riding a six-fight win streak, Ulberg is confident and fighting better than ever before. The public also loves his style, too, as indicated by his massive chalk status. If you're betting on Ulberg, do so by knockout, as there's no purpose in tossing down your cash on him at -450 or so. 

I'd keep in mind that this is still Ulberg's toughest test to date, and Smith blossoms for a surprise finish every once in a while. In my mind, this fight is way closer than the odds suggest. So bet Ulberg cautiously if you're keen on it. I'd prefer to look elsewhere.

Betting Preview: How Smith Wins

How does Smith win? Who the hell knows?

At this point in his career, "Lionheart" doesn't possess a frightening skillset or a big-brain fight IQ. Yet somehow, he's quietly relevant, at least in some of the upsets he has pulled off. He's been an underdog in five straight fights, managing a respectable 2-3 record during that span.

Smith's latest win, a submission over Vitor Petrino at UFC 301, shows how wild the fight game is. Petrino is bigger, stronger, and faster, but Smith simply caught him in a guillotine and wouldn't let go. Ulberg likely won't waltz into the same position, but Smith might be tricky, especially on the ground.

Ulberg has only been taken down once in his UFC career, so I imagine Smith explores that avenue. From there, it's far closer to pick'em odds in the grappling game. 

I'm totally comfortable losing money after putting a unit on Smith at +350. The odds forced my hand in this fight, and I'll die on my sword knowing this bout is way closer than the line suggests.

Ulberg vs Smith Picks

The public has this one wrong. Ulberg is a tank, but he's not worthy of his massive chalk status. So enter Smith, a mostly washed-up fighter with a bit of life left. 

I could see this fight going to decision. And with that in mind, I'm taking Smith as the underdog and the OVER 1.5 rounds.

Pick: Smith (+350); OVER 1.5 rounds

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