The UFC 304 co-main event is a highly anticipated interim heavyweight title fight between Tom Aspinall (-400 favorite) and Curtis Blaydes (+300 underdog).
The Aspinall vs Blaydes matchup takes place July 27 in Manchester, England. The Englishman Aspinall gets a chance to avenge his earlier loss to Blaydes in 2022, when he lost via injury TKO.
Here's a full betting preview of the Aspinall vs Blaydes odds and our best bets for UFC 304.
Aspinall vs Blaydes 2 Odds
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Tom Aspinall | -400 |
| Curtis Blaydes | +300 |
Odds as of July 26
Our odds calculator suggests Aspinall's -400 status awards him a 80% implied chance of victory, with a $100 bet paying out $120. At +300 odds, Blaydes gets a 25% chance and a $100 bet cashes $400.
If you're interested in a breakdown of the UFC 304 main event between Leon Edwards and Belal Muhammad, click here.
UFC 304 Betting Preview: How Aspinall Wins
UFC fans know Aspinall moves like a middleweight in a heavyweight's body. He's lightning quick, loose, and capable of exploding into a flurry of potent strikes at any moment. Aspinall wins this bout by keeping things on the feet, where he can systematically dismantle Blaydes with strikes.
Patience is the key to Aspinall's victory. Many opponents underestimate Blaydes' strength and bust into the pocket, where "Razor" can get his big mitts locked into a clinch or a wrestlefest. If Aspinall moves throughout the fight, a counter opportunity will open up and he can exploit Blaydes' chin.
Aspinall by knockout is the play, though I also don't hate an OVER 1.5 rounds bet.
UFC 304 Betting Preview: How Blaydes Wins
The longer this fight goes, the better it is for Blaydes. He might be able to lay some damage on Aspinall in an early scramble, but beyond that, he must lean heavily on his takedowns and grind away. Blaydes is a grinder, through and through, and his big wins are rarely pretty.
Cardio isn't a problem for the big fella, whose roots as a junior-college wrestler have equipped him with the talent and toughness to contend for the belt.
In the end, I'd bet Blaydes as a SU underdog. A small wager on Blaydes by decision isn't a terrible idea either if you really like the 33-year-old's chances.
aspinall vs Blaydes Pick
At the end of the day, Aspinall is the more talented fighter. He's a more explosive mixed martial artist and his upside shines very bright for me.
I'll be on Aspinall to win by knockout, plus the UNDER 1.5 Rounds (-165).
