Arman Tsarukyan as pulled out of his title fight with Islam Makhachev due to a back injury. Renato Moicano has stepped up in his place to contend for the belt. See the Makhchev vs Moicano odds here.
BREAKING NEWS!!!!
— danawhite (@danawhite) January 17, 2025
Makhachev will now be facing Moicano for the lightweight title. #UFC311 is LIVE TOMORROW on @ESPNPlus PPV! pic.twitter.com/2JZevvpQP2
UFC 311 is almost here, so for extra betting insight into these odds, we've turned to our friends at BetMGM, who have us covered for the UFC 311 betting handles in trends.
A little teaser before we dive in: the most bet-on fight, per BetMGM, is Jamahal Hill vs Jiri Prochazka, with the Islam Makhachev vs Arman Tsarukyan main event coming in second. 92% of the handle is on Hill, while, surprisingly, the underdog Tsarukyan commands 78% of the handle in the lightweight title fight.
Remember, each sportsbook will receive slightly different action, but here are the most popular UFC 311 betting handles:
UFC 311 Betting Handles: Makhachev vs Tsarukyan 2
Islam's odds have gone up and down since this fight was announced. He opened around -350, moved to -450, and has settled back as a -350 favorite. Yet, at BetMGM, big money is coming in on the underdog Armenian Tsarukyan.
As of Friday, Tsarukyan commands 74% of the tickets and 78% of the handle. That's shocking, but here's the catch: Islam's odds haven't moved (-350). This suggests BetMGM is wary of moving the lines, as its sharp bettors are all over the champ to retain his belt. I agree that Arman's odds are too long, but I'm on Islam at UFC 311.
Read my best bets for that fight in this lightweight title fight.
Makhachev vs Tsarukyan Handle %
- Makhachev: 22%
- Tsarukyan: 78%
Makhachev vs Tsarukyan Ticket %
- Makhachev: 26%
- Tsarukyan: 74%
UFC 311: Merab Dvalishvili vs Umar Nurmagomedov Betting Handles
The public agrees with me with my Merab pick. Merab opened at +240 on BetMGM but has since moved to +220. 85% of the handle is on Dvalishvili to retain his belt, moving Umar's odds to a more reasonable -275.
Dvalishvili vs Nurmagomedov Handle %
- Dvalishvili: 85%
- Nurmagomedov: 15%
Dvalishvili vs Nurmagomedov Ticket %
- Dvalishvili: 87%
- Nurmagomedov: 13%
UFC 311: Most bet Fights (Tickets)
Jiri Prochazka (CZE) - Jamahal Hill (USA)
Merab Dvalishvili (GEO) - Umar Nurmagomedov (RUS)
Arman Tsarukyan (ARM) - Islam Makhachev (RUS)
Kevin Holland (USA) - Reinier de Ridder (NED)
Beneil Dariush (IRI) - Renato Moicano (BRA)
UFC 311: Most Bet Props (Tickets)
Jiri Prochazka (CZE) by KO/TKO or DQ +175
Jamahal Hill (USA) by KO/TKO or DQ +175
Merab Dvalishvili (GEO) by Decision/Technical Decision +350
Arman Tsarukyan (ARM) by KO/TKO or DQ +750
Jiri Prochazka (CZE) by Submission +1300
Given that Jiri vs Hill is the most bet-on fight at UFC 311, it makes sense bettors are hammering each side to win by knockout. I'm not as certain this fight ends inside the distance, but I understand the betting logic.
Further down the list, I like the bets on Merab to win by decision (+350). I outlined that bet in my UFC 311 props article earlier this week.
This fight is expected to go the distance (-260), so while the value on this prop bet isn’t incredible, as a firm Merab supporter, I’ll take it.
Umar is tough to stop, blending sharp striking with a crushing squeeze, but Merab’s relentless pressure and movement can disrupt even elite opponents like Sean O’Malley.Merab’s strength and takedowns smother opponents, as shown by his 10 decision wins in the UFC. Let’s make it 11.
