UFC 313 Betting Handles & Trends: Tons Of Action On Poatan

UFC 313: Pereira vs Ankalaev is finally here, so for extra betting insight into these odds, I've linked with my friends at BetMGM, who've provided the UFC 313 betting handles in trends.

No surprise here: Alex Pereira vs Magomed Ankalaev is the most bet-on fight of the evening, followed by the co-main between Justin Gaethje and Rafael Fiziev. 

While each sportsbook will receive slightly different action, here are the most popular UFC 313 betting handles:

UFC 313: Pereira vs Ankalaev Betting Handles

The Pereira vs Ankalaev handle reveals some interesting insight. "Poatan" opened at -125 on BetMGM, and, from there, the action poured in on him. Currently, 71% of the handle is on Pereira, yet the odds moved slightly in Ankalaev's favor. It's not a crazy swing, but this slight discrepancy suggests BetMGM's sharps are on Ankalaev to win, or several sharp accounts have placed very large wagers on the challengers.

The Pereira vs Ankalaev odds have flip-flopped almost daily during fight week, so I won't consider these betting trends outrageous; more so, just something to note as you gauge who the public has in this UFC 313 title fight.

Pereira vs Ankalaev Handle %

Pereira vs Ankalaev Ticket %

UFC 313: Gaethje vs Fiziev Betting Handles

There's nothing abnormal to derive from the Gaethje-Fiziev odds. Fiziev opened as a slight favorite, and the BetMGM public has pushed 61% of the handle in the Azerbaijani's favor. I'm skeptical of betting Fiziev after his ACL injury, though I've consumed enough Fight Week content to understand why Fiziev is seeing such heavy action. There's reasonable skepticism about Gaethje's chin and durability at 36 years old. 

Gaethje vs Fiziev Handle %

Gaethje vs Fiziev Ticket %

UFC 313: Most bet Fights (Tickets)

UFC 313: Most Bet Props (Tickets)

I rate the Pereira by knockout bet; it's an easy way to move your odds from -125 to plus-money territory. In all likelihood, that's how Poatan gets it done, as eight of his 10 UFC fights (and each of his four LHW title fights) have ended in a finish. Along similar lines, Pereira in Round 3 or Round 4 are fun longshot bets. Ankalaev is incredibly durable, so I doubt Poatan finds any KO windows before Round 3.

Ankalaev by submission is interesting. He has zero submission wins in 14 UFC fights, so I suppose the logic here is that Poatan is vulnerable to grappling, and Ankalaev will control him on the ground. I don't love that bet as anything more than a small flyer, as I'm not even sure +800 is fair value for that outcome. 

Lastly, I'd love to indulge in the same sin spinach that Pereira by submission bettors are smoking. Poatan is 1-for-1 lifetime on takedown attempts (Israel Adesanya - UFC 281) and has attempted three career submissions but never came close to sealing the deal. Ankalaev, by far the most proficient grappler Pereira has ever faced, will not be yielding a submission on Saturday. Steer clear, amigos.