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UFC: Adesanya vs Romero Odds Analysis

UFC 248: Adesanya vs Romero Betting Odds

After unifying the interim middleweight title at UFC 243 in October, Israel “The Last Stylebender” Adesanya is set to make his first title defense at UFC 248 on March 7 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. His opponent is the three-time title challenger and former Olympian, Yoel “Soldier of God” Romero. Adesanya hand-picked Romero to be his first defense and he is a -260 favorite to retain his title, with the Soldier of God coming back at +200.

Odds Analysis

The Last Stylebender is back to being a favorite after closing as a very slight -105 underdog in his title fight with Robert Whittaker in October. Prior to that bout, Adesanya had been favored in all of his UFC bouts and ran through his competition, running his record to 18-0 with 14 of those triumphs coming by knockout.

Meanwhile, Romero, the former and once again title challenger, is on a two-fight losing slide but when the champ calls his shot, he gets the man he wants. Although the Cuba native has dropped his last two fights, they were both extremely close and very well could have been scored in his favor. Due to the defeats, though, it’s no surprise to see him as a ‘dog.

Israel Adesanya vs Yoel Romero Betting Odds
Israel Adesanya-260
Yoel Romero+200

Odds as of February 23 at Bovada

How Will This Fight Play Out?

Romero is a very dangerous fighter with real power in his hands and high-level wrestling skills. The 42-year-old has an odd striking style, slowing the tempo a lot and lulling his opponents to sleep before exploding forward looking to end the fight or drag it to the floor. In striking exchanges, he rolls with punches a lot but rarely fires back when he’s pressured.

As for the champion, he has shown tremendous wrestling defense, stuffing 85 percent of takedown attempts. In the standup game, the Nigeria native has outstruck all seven of his UFC counterparts and he has outstanding accuracy and reflexes, looking like a young Anderson Silva at times. I anticipate Adesanya will keep the fight standing and use his long punches and kicks to pick away at Romero.

Which Fighter Has the Better Value?

Although it’s not overly exciting to wager on a -260 favorite, Adesanya possesses more value than Romero. He should have a significant speed advantage and combining that with a seven-inch reach advantage could make for a long night for the Soldier of God. The Last Stylebender specifically called for this fight so I think he sees something that he can take advantage of and secure the victory.