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Israel Adesanya (right) is favored in the Adesanya vs Pereira odds

The UFC announced a middleweight title fight recently, as the champion Israel Adesanya (23-1) will defend his strap vs Alex Pereira (6-1) at UFC 281 in November.

The five-round main event will highlight the pay-per-view at Madison Square Garden, where “The Last Stylebender” will face the only opponent who has ever knocked him out cold. Pereira defeated Adesanya in Glory Kickboxing, first by decision in 2016, then by KO in 2017. 

Despite those losses, Bodog likes Adesanya’s chances inside the Octagon. He’s a -170 favorite in the Adesanya vs Pereira odds.

Israel Adesanya vs Alex Pereira Odds

Adesanya vs pereira Odds
FighterOdds
Israel Adesanya-170
Alex Pereira+140

Odds as of August 18 via Bodog

Using our sports betting calculator for the Adesanya vs Pereira odds, Izzy’s -170 odds translate to an implied win probability of 62.96 percent. Pereira’s +140 odds suggest he has a 41.67 percent chance to win. That means a successful $10 bet on the champion would pay out $15.88, while the same bet on the challenger earns you $24.

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For more information on how these numbers work, including the Adesanya vs Pereira odds, head over to our How to Bet on UFC page. Also, feel free to visit our many UFC betting sites, as well as our main UFC betting news page for all the latest news from inside the Octagon.

Israel Adesanya vs Alex Pereira Betting Odds Analysis

Pereira, ranked fifth in the middleweight division, has just three fights in the UFC but is still deserving of his fast-track route to a title shot.

“Poatan” finished Sean Strickland with a vicious left hook at UFC 276, ending that fight in the first round and cashing in on his slight favorite status at -130. Before that, the Brazilian secured victories over Bruno Silva (-200) and Andreas Michailidis (-275), whom he stopped by flying knee. 

Adesanya, on the other hand, has bounced back after a decision loss to Jan Blachowicz during his light heavyweight debut at UFC 259. The Nigerian has since worked three consecutive decision victories over Marvin Vettori (-260), Robert Whittaker (-300) and Jared Cannonier (-550). 

Adesanya vs Pereira Preview: Watch Out For Alex’s Left Hook

Pereira’s sharp left hook is one of the most dangerous weapons in mixed martial arts today. It was talked about plenty – we’ll get to his past KOs in a moment – but the UFC saw it for real in the 35-year-old’s bout vs Strickland. Pereira maintained a very upright stance, bouncing lightly on his feet (sort of like Adesanya) and using his long frame to pop off straight shots. Strickland kept advancing, so the Brazilian exploded out of orthodox stance, walloping the American with the left hook and sleeping him with shots in tight afterward.

In both Glory Kickboxing fights between Adesanya and Pereira, Poatan employed a similar approach. Pereira pressured him and threw combos that finished with exotic high kicks, which for the most part Izzy could dodge and counter. But when the duo got in close, it was the short but fast left hand that hit the Nigerian on the chin and folded him to the canvas.

Adesanya is one of the more skilled counterpunchers in the UFC, but there’s no doubt he’ll be hesitant to engage Pereira due to the challenger’s powerful left hook. This gives a big advantage to Pereira.

Are Takedowns The Way To Victory For Izzy?

While Adesanya was caught on camera practicing takedowns ahead of his fight vs Cannonier, the champ never needed to break out the ground game. Instead, he tapped his way to a decision victory. Pereira won’t go gently into that good night, which is why Adesanya needs to be much more creative. 

The Last Stylebender will be Pereira’s most intelligent UFC opponent, by far. Strickland, a very good wrestler, wanted to prove himself as a striker vs Pereira. He deviated from his game plan, drifted into a kickboxing match and got his lights shut off. Adesanya won’t play into the challenger’s strength.

That said, Adesanya has never landed a takedown in the UFC, but that doesn’t mean he shouldn’t try at least some variation of a level change. The champ spent plenty of time on the mat with Whittaker at UFC 276 but never looked overmatched. He was always able to maintain a safe defensive position or get to his feet when needed. Also, Pereira’s only MMA loss has come by submission.

He’s been humbled once before, so Izzy shouldn’t feel the need to out-strike Pereira. He needs to win at all costs, and while the entry might be challenging, wrestling could be a path to victory.

Adesanya vs Pereira Betting Pick

This is truly an exciting fight. Adesanya hasn’t faced a test like this in a while, and with the pair’s heated history of competition, we expect this fight will end in a finish. 

Adesanya strikes better than most of the UFC roster, but Pereira has a strong chin – he showed that off in his bout vs Silva. The champ has grown a little comfortable lately, leading to some doubts about whether he still possesses the killer instincts that got him to the top.

We think Izzy snaps out of his lull, resulting in an electric kickboxing match where Pereira finishes The Last Stylebender and becomes the new champ at 185 pounds.

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Pick: Pereira (+140); UNDER 4.5 Rounds (TBD)