UFC Fight Night Ottawa: Iaquinta vs Cerrone Odds and Picks

The UFC heads north of the border as the Octagon will be set up in Canada’s capital, Ottawa, at the Canadian Tire Centre. This event marks the first time the UFC has been in Ottawa since UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Thompson in 2016. The card is headlined with a tilt in the lightweight division as “Raging” Al Iaquinta squares off with Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone. The No. 4 ranked Iaquinta is a -125 favorite with the No. 8 ranked Cerrone coming back at -105. I have a breakdown and pick for each fight on the main card.

Iaquinta vs Cerrone Fight Center

Al Iaquinta vs Donald Cerrone

Iaquinta (-125) is looking to get back on a winning streak following his decision victory over Kevin Lee in December. Raging Al had won five straight fights from 2014 into 2018 before he was a last-minute replacement to fight Khabib Nurmagomedov at UFC 223 after Tony Ferguson had to pull out with a knee injury. Iaquinta lost by decision in that bout, just his third loss in the UFC as he has a 9-3 record in the Octagon.

The New York native has a granite chin that has seen him survive some wars but has never been knocked out. He likes to fight in a phone booth which makes for entertaining fights as he lands 4.3 strikes per minute while absorbing 4.05. However, he is able to make his opponents miss 62 percent of their strike attempts with his good footwork. Half of his 14 professional victories have come by knockout.

Cerrone (-105) is aiming to collect his third straight win for the first time since he rattled off four in a row in 2016. Cowboy had a 10-fight stint in the welterweight division following his loss to Rafael Dos Anjos for the lightweight strap in 2015. Things went just OK in the 170lb division, sporting a record of 6-4, but he dropped back down to lightweight in his last fight earning a second-round knockout triumph over Alexander Hernandez.

The 36-year-old is a very well-rounded fighter that has the ability to stand and trade or hit the floor and grapple. This is apparent in his record as 27 of his 35 professional wins have been finishes, 10 by knockout and 17 by submission. He utilizes his leg kicks to open up his punches, and he does so with little fear of being taken down as he works well off his back.

A fantastic main event between two scrappy veterans with a pile of wins in the lightweight division. Iaquinta’s only loss since September of 2014 was for the title against the current lightweight champ, Khabib Nurmagomedov, while Cerrone has won nine of his last 10 lightweight bouts with his only defeat also coming in a title fight against Rafael Dos Anjos. Cowboy has 17 submission victories to his name and Raging Al has been submitted three times, while Iaquinta has seven knockout wins and Cerrone has been knockout out four times.

Prediction: Donald Cerrone (-105) via submission

Iaquinta vs Cerrone Fight Center

Derek Brunson vs Elias Theodorou

Brunson (-115) is looking to avoid his first-ever three-fight losing streak. The 35-year-old has a record of 9-5 since stepping into the Octagon in 2012, but his losses have come against top-end talent in Yoel Romero, current middleweight champion, Robert Whittaker, former middleweight champion Anderson Silva, Jacare Souza and current interim middleweight champ, Israel Adesanya. Most recently, he lost to Souza and Adesanya, both by first-round knockout.

The North Carolina native has good footwork and uses leg kicks to open up opportunities to land his heavy hands. The southpaw does tend to leave his hands low which leaves him susceptible to being punched in the face, but he only absorbs 2.55 strikes per minute. Of his 18 professional wins, 11 have been by knockout, all of which coming in the first round. That being said, five of his seven pro losses have also come in the same manner and four of those came in the first.

Theodorou (-115) is aiming to pick up his first-ever four-fight winning streak in the UFC. The Canada native won The Ultimate Fighter Nations season by earning a second-round knockout win over Sheldon Westcott in the finals in 2014. Since then, “The Spartan” has put together a 7-2 record in the Octagon with eight of those bouts going to the judges’ scorecard.

The 30-year-old has tremendous cardio that allows him to push the pace for the entire 15 minutes of a fight. He stays on the outside constantly bouncing around looking for openings to lunge in with long punches. He does utilize his kicks well to keep his opponents at bay, but he doesn’t have a lot of power behind them.

A true battle between a one-punch knockout artist in Brunson and a cardio king that goes to the judges’ scorecards in Theodorou. Brunson does average 2.74 takedowns per 15 minutes and “The Spartan” has stuffed just 60 percent of takedown attempts. This fight really comes down to if Brunson can find a spot to land those heavy hands while Theodorou will have to maintain distance and avoid the big strikes.

Prediction: Derick Brunson (-115) via decision

Brunson vs Theodorou Fight Center

Cub Swanson vs Shane Burgos

Swanson (+130) is looking to pull out of his career-long three-fight losing slide. During this skid, he has fought some tough competition in Brian Ortega, Frankie Ortega and Renato Moicano. The 35-year-old has been a staple with the featherweight division since 2011 sporting a record of 10-6, and his last five wins have come by decision.

He is a very active fighter with tremendous head and foot movements that results in his opponents missing 70 percent of their strike attempts. Additionally, he has great conditioning that allows him to be able to be very aggressive in the Octagon and in his fight vs Artem Lobov in 2017, he landed 209 significant strikes which are the fifth-most in a single fight. Of Swanson’s 25 pro wins, 11 have been by knockout, but he hasn’t earned a win in that manner since 2013 when knocked out Dennis Siver.

Burgos (-160) is searching for his second win streak in the Octagon following his first-round submission win over Kurt Holobaugh at UFC 230 in November. “Hurricane” began his UFC career with three straight wins before a third-round knockout loss to Calvin Kattar at UFC 220, the only professional loss on his record. Overall, he is 4-1 in the Octagon with two wins by decision one by knockout and one by submission.

The 28-year-old likes to get in brawls with his opponents and fight up-tempo scraps. He averages 6.54 strikes per minute but also absorbs 5.47 strikes per minute. He has landed 85 or more strikes in four of his five UFC fights, with only his latest fight landing just 17, but it was a first-round submission win. That being said, he was tagged and dropped in the Holobaugh fight but was able to secure an armbar during the ground and pound.

This has all the makings of a fight of the night between two guys that are willing to stand and trade with one another. It will be a massive step up in competition for Burgos as Swanson is a crafty vet that may not have the power he once had but still has the ability to stick and move and avoid a lot of strikes.

Prediction: Cub Swanson (+130) via decision

Swanson vs Burgos Fight Center

Brad Katona vs Merab Dvalishvili

Katona (+155) is aiming to remain undefeated as he lays his perfect 9-0 record on the line and is seeking his third victory in the UFC. The Canadian earned a dominant unanimous decision victory over Jay Cucciniello in the Ultimate Fighter 27 finals and followed that up with a unanimous decision triumph over Matthew Lopez at UFC 231.

“Superman” has a high-level fight IQ constantly moving around on the outside throwing feints looking to find ways to capitalize on his opponents. With his constant movement, he does a great job at avoiding strikes, but when his foes are able to close distance and get into a phone booth with him, he has no problem biting down on his mouthpiece and swinging for the fences. He averages 4.9 strikes per minute while absorbing 2.77 and his opponents miss 59 percent of their attempts.

Dvalishvili (-190) is attempting to pick up back-to-back wins for the first time in the UFC. The Georgia native lost his first two bouts in the Octagon but put in a terrific performance in a unanimous decision win over Terrion Ware last September. Overall, Dvalishvili has a professional record of 8-4.

The 28-year-old is a fantastic wrestler in which he lands 7.33 takedowns per 15 minutes and hits 41 percent of his takedown attempts. His record in the UFC should probably be 2-1 not 1-2 as his debut against Frankie Saenz he landed 11 takedowns but lost via split decision. In the standup battle, he tends to over-extend with looping punches, with the ultimate goal of closing distance.

An intriguing battle between a striker and grappler. Dvalishvili is going to march forward doing his best to get his hands on Katona and drag this fight to the floor. However, Superman has fantastic movements and is a smart fighter in the cage, rarely getting himself in much trouble. That being said, he was taken down four times in his fight with Matthew Lopez at UFC 231.

Prediction: Merab Dvalishvili (-190) via decision

Katona vs Dvalishvili Fight Center

Walt Harris vs Serghei Spivak

Harris (-175) is back in action following his no contest against Andre Arlovski at UFC 232. “The Big Ticket” earned a split decision victory in that bout but failed the post-fight drug test, but he was able to prove there was a tainted supplement. Harris has had a rocky road in the UFC, sporting a record of 4-6 with one no contest.

The 35-year-old has extreme knockout power as all 11 of his professional victories have ended in a knockout. Additionally, he tends to stalk forward looking to close the distance to let his hands fly. He has good head movement that allows him to get in the pocket offensively and avoid major strikes as he makes his opponents miss 61 percent of their strikes.

Spivak (+145) is making his Octagon debut and in doing so lies his perfect 9-0 record on the line. “The Polar Bear” has finished all of his victories, four by knockout and five by submission with only one of his bouts entering the second round.

The 24-year-old is a patient fighter that takes the center of the cage looking to close in on his opponents but doesn't use a lot of extra movement in doing so. He has really fast hands and works well behind his jab. Defensively, he has fairly decent footwork that allows him to get out of danger when he’s being pressured. The Moldova native has a nasty Muay Thai clinch where he can throw his knees.

This could be a don’t blink situation when these two heavyweights enter the Octagon. Harris has massive power that Spivak may not have faced in his career to date. However, the Polar Bear is extremely versatile having the ability to put his opponents away in the clinch or sink in a fight-ending submission.

Prediction: Walt Harris (-175) via knockout

Harris vs Spivak Fight Center

Marc-Andre Barriault vs Andrew Sanchez

Barriault (+145) is making his Octagon debut and is looking to extend his eight-fight winning streak. “Power Bar” is the TKO middleweight and light heavyweight champion. Overall, the Canadian has an 11-1 record with eight of those victories being knockouts.

The 29-year-old has a good chin that was tested in his last fight under the TKO banner to win the light heavyweight strap. His lone defeat came via split decision in 2015. He is a patient fighter that stalks forward but doesn’t use a lot of extra energy chasing his foes and he uses his grappling skills against the cage to nullify his opponents’ forward attack. He has a strong wrestling game and when the fight hits the floor he has a good ground and pound.

Sanchez (-175) is eying his second winning streak in the UFC, returning to the cage for the first time since August of last year. “El Dirte” won his first two bouts in the Octagon but followed it up with back-to-back losses before his unanimous decision triumph over Markus Perez last year. Overall, he has a record of 10-4 with five of his 10 wins coming by knockout.

The 31-year-old is very light on his feet, constantly shifting his weight from his back foot to his front aiming to time his opponents when they move forward. He has suffocating pressure and averages 4.83 strikes per minute, but also absorbs the same amount. He uses his wrestling game to earn victories as he has averaged 2.79 takedowns per 15 minutes, but only lands 37 percent of his attempts and he has never been taken down in the UFC.

A pair of grapplers open the main card. Barriault was a two-division champion in TKO and has great heart and thunder in his hands. However, Sanchez has the experience and great cardio that has seen him land 100 or more strikes in four of his five UFC bouts.

Prediction: Marc-Andre Barriault (+145) via knockout

Barriault vs Sanchez Fight Center

Here’s a look at the full list of odds for UFC Fight Night Ottawa: Iaquinta vs Cerrone: