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Aldo vs. Hominick Betting Preview

Mark Hominick will have 55,000 local fans cheering for him to become the next UFC Featherweight title holder when he steps into the Octagon at UFC 129, but he’s got to beat one of the best pound-for-pound fighters in the world to do it.

The co-main event on the UFC 129 fight card will feature UFC Featherweight champion Jose Aldo defending his title against scrappy Ontario native Hominick. MMA oddsmakers at 5Dimes have the cheapest line on the favored Aldo at -410, while some other books have him as expensive as -500.

The lopsided lines are that way for a reason. Aldo has won 11 straight fights dating back to 2004, and that includes two WEC Featherweight title defenses. He’s a lethal combination of world-class Muay Thai skills and a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. Aldo is clearly above and beyond anyone else in the division, and laying action that he dominates Hominick looks like safe money to us.

Hominick is a much improved mixed martial artist with good Muay Thai skills of his own, but he’s not at the champion’s level. Even if he’s able to get the best of a stand-up battle he’ll still have to make sure to stay off his back, where Aldo will have lots of submission options. That’s why Bovada is offering MMA odds of +350 on a Hominick upset. As big a payout as that may be, we still can’t justify betting against the obvious best 145-pounder in the world.

When Hominick steps into the Octagon against Aldo we expect him to endure Aldo’s crushing leg kicks and quick combinations for a round or two until something gives. Even once he starts to break down Hominick will likely keep pushing forward and will eventually walk into a heavy shot. Once the challenger goes down to the canvass a fast submission, likely a choke, should solidify the victory for Aldo.

The only scenarios where we can imagine Hominick getting the upset would include a lucky shot that might stun the champ long enough for Hominick to swarm him. There is the outside chance that Hominick is able to check the heavy leg kicks that Aldo will be sure to be throwing and compete with the champ in a stand-up battle for a decision win.

Anything is possible in an MMA fight, and Hominick will have huge energy behind him at  Rogers Centre at UFC 129, but we’re going to pass on betting on the underdog local boy this time and go with an Aldo KO.