UFC Fight Night St. Petersburg: Overeem vs Oleinik Odds and Picks

For the second time ever, the Octagon will be set up in Russia and the card will be headlined with a heavyweight tilt between Alistair “The Demolition Man” Overeem and Aleksei “The Boa Constrictor” Oleinik. These experienced mixed martial artists have a combined 101 professional wins and Overeem is a -235 favorite with Oleinik coming back at +185. I have a breakdown and a pick for each fight on the main card.

Overeem vs Oleinik Fight Center

Alistair Overeem vs Aleksei Oleinik

Overeem (-235) is looking to put together consecutive wins after his first-round knockout win in November following back-to-back losses. The Demolition Man has been a staple in the UFC heavyweight division since his first-round knockout win in his debut against Brock Lesnar at UFC 141 in 2011. In the Octagon, the Netherlands native has a record of 9-6 with six of his wins coming by knockout and all six of his defeats coming in the same fashion.

The 38-year-old is a fantastic kickboxer, but in his last time out he secured a takedown and rained down a vicious ground and pound. Overeem is a well-rounded fighter who has the ability to strike at range or get in nasty clinch brawls with his opponents. In the 61 professional fights he has had, only once has he been submitted, which is crucial for this bout.

Oleinik (+185) is looking for his first-ever three-fight winning streak in the Octagon as he is currently riding his third two-fight winning streak since joining the UFC in 2014. The only two setbacks the Russia native has had in the UFC were a majority-decision loss to Daniel Omielanczuk and a doctor’s stoppage TKO loss to Curtis Blaydes at UFC 217. All six of his UFC wins have been finishes, five by submission and one by knockout.

The Boa Constrictor is exactly what his name suggests, a brilliant submission artist who has 45 professional submission victories in his career. Additionally, he became the first fighter in the UFC to win by an Ezekiel choke when he finished Viktor Pesta in the first round in January 2017 and then did it again to Junior Albini at UFC 224 last year. Of his 11 pro losses, five have come by knockout.

A classic striker vs grappler match as Overeem is going to look to keep this fight standing and at long range where he can kick Oleinik. Meanwhile, the Boa Constrictor is going to attempt to bring the fight to the floor so he can clasp those hands together and sink in a fight-ending submission. I think Overeem’s experience will allow him to stay out of the grappling danger.

Prediction: Alistair Overeem (-235) via knockout

Overeem vs Oleinik Fight Center

Islam Makhachev vs Arman Tsarukyan

Makhachev (-325) is looking to collect his fifth straight win in the UFC and extend his two-fight finish streak as well. The Russia native was knocked out in his second fight in the Octagon, by Adriano Martins at UFC 192 in 2015, but has picked up four wins in a row since. Overall, the 27-year-old is 16-1 with 10 of his wins being finishes, seven by submission and three by knockout.

Like many other Dagestani fighters, Makhachev puts suffocating pressure on his opponents, looking to get into striking distance or get his hands on them to drag the fight to the floor. He averages 4.33 takedowns per 15 minutes and lands 86 percent of his attempts, while only absorbing 0.82 significant strikes per minute.

Tsarukyan (+250) is making his Octagon debut and brings with him a 12-fight winning streak. The Russia native has finished 10 of his 13 professional wins, five by knockout and five by submission. Recently, Tsarukyan earned a three-round unanimous decision over former UFC fighter Junior Assuncao in May of last year.

The 22-year-old has really good footwork and uses it well to set up his powerful kicks. He does a good job bouncing in and out of range constantly looking for his opportunities to land. Additionally, he uses a lot of spinning attacks seeking the flashy knockout.

Both fighters like to use forward pressure to impose their will on their opponents and it’ll be interesting to see who does it better. I think Tsarukyan’s spinning attacks will be his demise against Makhachev because he will read it and storm forward and take the fight to the floor where he will land heavy ground and pound.

Prediction: Islam Makhachev (-325) via submission

Makhachev vs Tsarukyan Fight Center

Sergei Pavlovich vs Marcelo Golm

Pavlovich (-265) returns to the Octagon for the first time since his first-round knockout defeat to Alistair Overeem in November last year. That was not a great debut for the Russia native, snapping his perfect 12-0 record as the Demolition Man dragged him to the floor and used heavy ground and pound to put him away.

The 26-year-old has real thunder in his hands and nine of his 12 professional wins have come by knockout. Before getting taken down by Overeem, Pavlovich had the opportunity to show off how quick his hands were as he fired from the hip with tremendous power and accuracy with nice uppercuts.

Golm (+205) is looking to get back in the win column after dropping his last two fights, the only two losses in his career. The 26-year-old began his UFC career with a first-round submission victory over Christian Colombo but was dealt back-to-back unanimous-decision losses by Tim Johnson and Arjan Bhullar in 2018. Overall, Golm is 6-2 with five of his wins coming by knockout.

The 26-year-old is predominantly a counter-striker, but he does a good job throwing leg kicks when his opponents are out of punching range. Although he is a counter-striker, he doesn’t have great footwork or head movement to avoid strikes to land his own punches. He is an active fighter with 4.26 significant strikes per minute but he also absorbs 3.92 significant strikes per minute.

This is going to be a war between two fantastic strikers. I think Pavlovich has better hand speed and likely more power in his punches. However, Golm has really good leg kicks and if he can land those and get out of the way, he may find some success in slowing Pavlovich down. That being said, if he misses those kicks and doesn’t keep his hands high, he’s in trouble.

Prediction: Sergei Pavlovich (-265) via knockout

Pavlovich vs Golm Fight Center

Ivan Shtyrkov vs Devin Clark

Shtyrkov (-185) lays his perfect record on the line as he makes his Octagon debut. “Ural Hulk” brings a 15-0-1 record with six wins by knockout, five wins by submission and four by decision. Most recently, he earned victories over former UFC fighters Thiago Silva and Fabio Maldonado.

The Russia native is a really active fighter using fantastic head movement and forward pressure to get in the face of his opponents. Additionally, he’s very quick for his size and when he closes the distance and is able to get his hands on his opponent, his strength allows him to just rag-doll his foes.

Clark (+150) is aiming to improve upon his 3-3 record in the UFC and is coming off a first-round knockout loss to Aleksandar Rakic at UFC 231 in December. “Brown Bear” was a perfect 6-0 before earning a UFC contract and all three of his wins in the Octagon have been by decision, while his three losses have been finishes, two by knockout and one by submission.

The 30-year-old is a solid counter-striker with real power in his hands and lands 3.43 significant strikes per minute but also absorbs 3.13 significant strikes per minute. Additionally, if his opponents overextend as he baits them in, he will take the fight to the floor as he averages 3.14 takedowns per 15 minutes, including dragging Mike Rodriguez to the mat seven times at UFC 223.

A very interesting fight between two explosive fighters with excellent wrestling pedigree. I think that Shtyrkov will be the aggressor in this fight and should have the strength advantage. However, Clark has true power in his hands and if he is able to find Ural Hulk’s chin, it could be all over.

Prediction: Ivan Shtyrkov (-185) via knockout

Shtyrkov vs Clark Fight Center

Roxanne Modafferi vs Antonina Shevchenko

Modafferi (+240) is looking to improve upon her 1-3 record in the Octagon. A longtime veteran of MMA, “The Happy Warrior” is making her 38th walk to the cage and fifth in the UFC. Modafferi has dropped three of her four fights in the Octagon with each of the defeats coming by unanimous decision. Her only win was a second-round knockout over Barb Honchak.

The 36-year-old is willing to go to war with her opponents but doesn’t have a lot of tools to earn the victory other than heart and forward pressure. Modafferi has 22 professional wins, 13 by decision, while 11 of her 15 professional losses have come in the same manner. She averages 3.77 significant strikes per minute, but only lands 30 percent of her attempts, while absorbing 5.47 significant strikes per minute.

Shevchenko (-310) is aiming to remain perfect in the UFC following her unanimous-decision victory over Ji Yeon Kim in her debut in the Ultimate Fighter 28 finale in November. “Pantera” earned a UFC contract with her second-round knockout over Jaimelene Nievera in the Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series last summer.

The sister of women’s flyweight UFC champion Valentina Shevchenko, Pantera is an aggressive Muay Thai fighter who marches forward looking to get into a clinch where she can land vicious knees and elbows. Shevchenko averaged 5.95 significant strikes per minute while only absorbing 2.01 and she had two takedowns in that win over Kim.

Modafferi has the admiration of a lot of her peers in the locker room as she is a pioneer of women’s MMA and she’s a game warrior willing to get in the cage with anyone. However, I think she has bit off more than she can chew as she faces an undefeated fighter in Shevchenko who is a dynamic striker with tremendous accuracy and knowledge of fighting.

Prediction: Antonina Shevchenko (-310) via decision

Modafferi vs Shevchenko Fight Center

Krzysztof Jotko vs Alen Amedovski

Jotko (-200) is looking to put an end to his career-longest three-fight losing streak. The Poland native began his UFC career with wins in six of his first seven bouts but has quickly dropped three in a row, including two by knockout. Overall, he has a record of 19-4 with 12 of his wins coming by decision, six by knockout and one by submission.

The 29-year-old has really good head movement and footwork that has allowed him to make his opponents miss 59 percent of their strike attempts and he only absorbs 1.89 significant strikes per minute. However, when he gets in striking exchanges, he tends to let his hands fall, which has resulted in him getting knocked out in his last two bouts. But when he throws, he puts everything behind it.

Amedovski (+160) is making his Octagon debut as he lays his perfect 8-0 record on the line with all eight of those wins coming by knockout. Only twice has the Macedonia native entered the second round, with his other six bouts ending in the first round. The 31-year-old had two fights in Bellator that lasted a combined 1:51 with back-to-back knockouts.

Amedovski throws wild hands that aren’t really set up well, but they are thrown with 100 percent power and when they land, his opponents go to sleep. On the floor, he has a good ability to work toward the mount where he looks to rain down his heavy hands in search of a TKO.

I think this is going to be a big step up in competition for Amedovski and I don’t know how he’s going to handle the head movement and footwork that Jotko has. That being said, the Macedonia native hasn’t shown any respect for the power of his opponents, just marching through their strikes looking to land his hands, and Jotko has proven that his chin isn’t made of granite.

Prediction: Alen Amedovski (+160) via knockout

Jotko vs Amedovski Fight Center

Here’s a look at the full list of odds for UFC Fight Night St. Petersburg: