The middleweight division will be on the marquee this weekend for UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs Holland. Derek Brunson heads into this fight at the UFC Apex Center on March 20 on a three-fight winning streak but has his hands full with one of the 2020 fighters of the year, Kevin Holland, who won five bouts last year.
Looking at Brunson vs Holland odds, it is the No. 10-ranked Holland who is the betting favorite over the No. 7-ranked Brunson. We have the full UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs Holland odds and predictions below.
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Brunson climbed his way toward the top of the middleweight division twice but both times ran into two-fight losing skids. Since his last losing streak of back-to-back knockout losses to Jacare Souza and Israel Adesanya, Brunson finds himself on his longest winning streak in five years.
Holland has put together a strong UFC career thus far, going 8-2, and after closing 2019 with a submission loss to Brendan Allen, he tore through 2020 with five wins, including four knockouts, to burst into the middleweight rankings.
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs Holland Odds
Online sportsbook Sportsbook has released UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs Holland odds, with Holland listed as the -175 favorite and Brunson the +145 underdog. This means you would have to wager $175 to profit $100 on a Holland victory, while a $100 bet on a Brunson win would profit you $145.
Looking at the odds for Brunson vs Holland, our sports betting calculator tells us that Holland’s odds of -175 represent an implied win probability of 63.64 percent while Brunson’s odds of +145 have an implied win probability of 40.82 percent.
The largest favorite in the UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs Holland odds comes in a bantamweight prelim bout with Montel Jackson (-700) taking on Jesse Strader (+450). The tightest betting line comes in a middleweight prelim bout, with Roman Dolidze a -135 favorite over Trevin Giles (+105).
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs Holland Odds & Fight Card
- Main Card
- Middleweight – Derek Brunson (+145) vs Kevin Holland (-175)
- Lightweight – Gregor Gillespie (-265) vs Brad Riddell (+205)
- Women’s Strawweight – Cheyanne Buys (-350) vs Montserrat Ruiz (+265)
- Bantamweight – Adrian Yanez (-230) vs Gustavo Lopez (+180)
- Welterweight – Kenan Song (+170) vs Max Griffin (-210)
- Heavyweight – Tai Tuivasa (-400) vs Harry Hunsucker (+300)
- Prelims
- Women’s Bantamweight – Marion Reneau (+170) vs Macy Chiasson (-220)
- Lightweight – Leonardo Santos (+155) vs Grant Dawson (-190)
- Middleweight – Trevin Giles (+105) vs Roman Dolidze (-135)
- Bantamweight – Montel Jackson (-700) vs Jesse Strader (+450)
- Flyweight – Bruno Silva (+120) vs JP Buys (-150)
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- Date/Time: March 20, 7 p.m. ET
- Location: Las Vegas, Nevada
- Arena: UFC Apex
- Where to Watch: ESPN, ESPN+
Derek Brunson vs Kevin Holland Odds & Prediction
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Derek Brunson | +145 |
| Kevin Holland | -175 |
Derek Brunson (+145) had a rough stretch in which he dropped four of six fights, all by knockout, but in his lone 2020 appearance, he stopped top prospect Edmen Shahbazyan. Kevin “Trailblazer” Holland (-175) had a tremendous 2020 that ended with a highlight-reel first-round knockout win over Jacare Souza.
- It has been a long journey for Brunson, set to make his 18th walk to the Octagon. He holds a 21-7 record with 15 of his pro wins being stoppages (12 knockouts, three submissions). However, five of his seven losses have been knockouts.
- With that wealth of UFC experience, Brunson has become a well-rounded fighter, averaging 3.02 takedowns per 15 minutes and landing 10 takedowns over his current three-fight winning streak. He’s also averaging 3.77 significant strikes per minute and absorbing 2.95.
- Brunson can be a little reckless having a 100 percent takedown defense, but in his last performance he was much more patient. He has a bad tendency when throwing punches to overextend and rumble forward, which leaves him open to being countered hard.
- He also drops his hands under pressure, but if his opponent charges him, he level changes for a takedown. All that said defensively, when he lands offensively, he has big power as he puts everything into every strike.
- Brunson’s last three fights were Elias Theodorou (win – unanimous decision), Ian Heinisch (win – unanimous decision) and Edmen Shahbazyan (win – knockout).
- When you want to talk about seizing an opportunity, that’s what Holland did as the UFC looked for fighters to be active during the pandemic – he went a perfect 5-0 in 2020. He now holds a 21-5 record with 17 stoppage victories (11 knockouts, six submissions).
- Although he averages 1.19 takedowns per 15 minutes, he’s secured just two over his last five fights. He’s very active on the feet, though, averaging 4.74 significant strikes per minute and absorbing 2.77.
- No doubt, you will see Trailblazer talking smack in the fight and it happens frequently when he lands his long jab with an 81-inch reach. Holland flows nicely, is very light on his feet and has great counters when his opponent rushes in on him.
- At times, he will load up entering the pocket looking for a knockout punch but can telegraph it and end up eating a heavy shot. That said, he’s never been knocked out so he doesn’t mind getting into a firefight.
- Holland’s last three fights were Darren Stewart (win – split decision), Charlie Ontiveros (win – knockout) and Jacare Souza (win – knockout).
Prediction: Kevin Holland (-175) via knockout
Gregor Gillespie vs Brad Riddell Odds & Prediction
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Gregor Gillespie | -265 |
| Brad Riddell | +205 |
We are seeing Gregor “The Gift” Gillespie (-265) for the first time since he suffered his first professional loss in November 2019. Looking to slap another loss on Gillespie’s record is Brad “Quake” Riddell (+205), who finds himself on a nice six-fight winning streak but is searching for his first UFC stoppage.
- Gillespie was quickly getting a name in the UFC lightweight rankings with six wins to begin his UFC career and was a perfect 13-0 before losing to Kevin Lee. Of his 13 pro wins, 11 have been finishes (six knockouts, five submissions). His lone defeat was a knockout.
- The Gift is an outstanding grappler, averaging 7.02 takedowns per 15 minutes. He chains the shots together very well and gives opponents no room to breathe, wearing on them from the moment the fight starts until the moment it ends.
- On the feet, he tends to throw everything at his opponent’s head with hooks, jabs and straights before he goes for his takedown attempt. His incredible conditioning allows him to set a ridiculous pace that eventually breaks his foe.
- Gillespie’s last three fights were Vinc Pichel (win – submission), Yancy Medeiros (win – knockout) and Kevin Lee (loss – knockout).
- After the first six fights of Riddell’s pro career all ended with stoppages, five of which he won, his last four bouts have gone the distance, including all three in the UFC. All five of his stoppage wins were knockouts.
- Quake has outstruck all three of his UFC opponents and averages 4.36 significant strikes per minute while absorbing just 2.62. However, he has been dragged to the floor 14 times over those bouts, stuffing just 60 percent of takedown attempts against.
- As a former kickboxing champion, every second that the fight is standing presents danger for his opponent. He closes distance very fast and unloads his right hand quickly, accurately and powerfully. That said, I think his best weapon is his leg kicks, which are not telegraphed and punish his foes.
- Riddell’s last three fights were Jamie Mullarkey (win – unanimous decision), Magomed Mustafaev (win – split decision) and Alex da Silva Coelho (win – unanimous decision).
Prediction: Gregor Gillespie (-265) via decision
Cheyanne Buys vs Montserrat Ruiz Odds & Prediction
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Cheyanne Buys | -350 |
| Montserrat Ruiz | +265 |
A pair of women set to make their UFC debuts will kick off the main card. Cheyanne “The Warrior Princess” Buys (-350) picked up her UFC contract in Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series in August. As for Montserrat “Conejo” Ruiz (+265), she rebounded from her first pro loss with a submission victory last July and takes this fight on short notice.
- The Warrior Princess is an aggressive fighter, closing the distance and throwing punches in bunches. She has good footwork, but most of all she’s fearless, standing in the pocket willing to get into a full-on brawl. She refuses to take a shot without firing back one of her own.
- She lost her second pro fight but enters this bout on a four-fight winning streak (all decision wins), though she earned a knockout in her pro debut.
- Buys’ last three fights were Lindsay Garbatt (win – unanimous decision), Rebecca Adney (win – unanimous decision) and Hilarie Rose (win – unanimous decision).
- Conejo began her pro career with eight straight wins before her one and only loss in December 2018. She was out for 18 months with injuries after that loss but looked good in her return last July. Of her nine pro wins, five have been stoppages with three knockouts and two submissions.
- Ruiz also likes to get in the pocket and exchange hands and is very fast. She’s a bit of a smaller strawweight, which is a bit of a disadvantage in grappling, though her strength and technique help her out.
- Ruiz’s last three fights were Sarai Saenz Flores (win – unanimous decision), Danielle Taylor (loss – unanimous decision) and Janaisa Morandin (win – submission).
Prediction: Cheyanne Buys (-350) via decision
Adrian Yanez vs Gustavo Lopez Odds & Prediction
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Adrian Yanez | -230 |
| Gustavo Lopez | +180 |
Following a loss in his UFC debut, Gustavo Lopez (+180) picked up a victory in his second appearance, earning a first-round submission win in November. Adrian Yanez (-230) had a successful UFC debut on Halloween, scoring a first-round knockout win for his fifth straight triumph.
- Yanez earned his UFC contract in Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series in August with a first-round knockout win. Now, nine of his 12 pro wins have been finishes with seven knockouts and two submissions. All three of his pro defeats have been decisions, two of which were splits.
- He has incredibly fast and accurate hands and is long for the bantamweight division with a 70-inch reach. Yanez can be a little slow to react to his opponents, getting caught watching them. However, if his foes hang out in the pocket, he counters heavily.
- He’s also like a shark that smells blood when he lands a few clean shots, going on the all-out attack looking for the finish.
- Yanez’s last three fights were Kyle Estrada (win – split decision), Brady Huang (win – knockout) and Victor Rodriguez (win – knockout).
- Lopez was up against it in his debut taking on the dangerous Merab Dvalishvili, but he secured his 11th stoppage win shortly after in his second UFC bout against Anthony Birchak. Of his 11 finishes, five were knockouts and six were submissions, while his two stoppage losses were knockouts.
- He has a herky-jerky, start-and-stop style on the feet that can be a little awkward to deal with. However, he has very little head movement and keeps his hands low, which leaves him vulnerable to heavy straight punches.
- Although he does take some damage on the feet, he fires back heavily and doesn’t mind trading punches in the pocket. Lopez has good grappling too and will level change if he’s under a lot of pressure.
- Lopez’s last three fights were Joey Ruquet (win – knockout), Merab Dvalishvili (loss – unanimous decision) and Anthony Birchak (win – submission).
Prediction: Gustavo Lopez (+180) via decision
Kenan Song vs Max Griffin Odds & Prediction
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Kenan Song | +170 |
| Max Griffin | -210 |
Kenan “The Assassin” Song (+170) looks to build off back-to-back victories and pick up his first three-fight winning streak within the UFC. Meanwhile, Max “Pain” Griffin (-210) has failed to put together consecutive wins since he made his UFC debut in August 2016.
- Song actually earned a UFC contract on the heels of back-to-back losses when the promotion visited China in late 2017. He earned a 15-second knockout in his UFC debut. Of his 16 pro wins, 14 have been finishes with eight knockouts and six submissions. Two of his five losses have been knockouts.
- The Assassin is not a terribly explosive fighter, typically chipping away at distance with kicks and looking to really sit down on strikes when his opponent enters the pocket. With this lackluster approach, many of his strikes aren’t set up well but he has big power when he throws.
- One really strong area in his striking is that he tends to throw very straight punches that often find their target and his deceptive power catches his foes off guard. I’d just like to see more output.
- Song’s last three fights were Alex Morono (loss – unanimous decision), Derrick Krantz (win – unanimous decision) and Callan Potter (win – knockout).
- It has been a rocky road, to say the least, in the Octagon for Griffin, dropping six of his 10 bouts, but he was stopped only in his debut by Colby Covington. Of his eight pro losses, that knockout to Covington was his only stoppage, while 10 of his 16 pro wins have been finishes (eight knockouts, two submissions).
- Pain likes to close the distance and get into a brawl and has outstanding conditioning that allows him to set a strong pace. He has a bad tendency to enter the pocket and either throw just one punch or not throw at all, leaving him extremely vulnerable.
- Striking isn’t his bread and butter, though, as Griffin averages 1.73 takedowns per 15 minutes and has landed at least one takedown in five of his last six bouts.
- Griffin’s last three fights were Alex Morono (loss – unanimous decision), Alex Oliveira (loss – split decision) and Ramiz Brahimaj (win – knockout).
Prediction: Kenan Song (+170) via decision
Tai Tuivasa vs Harry Hunsucker Odds & Prediction
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Tai Tuivasa | -400 |
| Harry Hunsucker | +300 |
Following a three-fight losing skid, Tai “Bam Bam” Tuivasa (-400) emerged with a first-round knockout win in his last appearance in October. He was set to fight Don’Tale Mayes, but Mayes was deemed medically not cleared for this fight and Tuivasa is now taking on Harry “The Hurricane” Hunsucker (+300), who lost to Mayes in 2016.
- Perhaps making too big a jump too early was the reason for Bam Bam’s losing skid. Tuivasa was 6-0 before entering the UFC and won three straight before fighting former champion Junior dos Santos in the first of three losses in a row.
- In typical heavyweight fashion, nine of Tuivasa’s 10 pro wins have come by knockout, while his three losses consist of a knockout, submission and decision.
- You don’t get the nickname Bam Bam by grappling and, unsurprisingly, he has zero successful takedowns in his UFC career. He is an active heavyweight with 4.20 significant strikes per minute and he mixes his strikes up well from kicks to big overhand punches.
- Despite not securing takedowns, Tuivasa does use strong clinch work against the cage, which he will use to wear out his foes, making them easier to hit and knock out later.
- Tuivasa’s last three fights were Blagoy Ivanov (loss – unanimous decision), Sergey Spivak (loss – submission) and Stefan Struve (win – knockout).
- Hunsucker got his crack at the UFC in Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series in November but lost via first-round knockout to Jared Vanderaa.
- All seven of The Hurricane’s pro wins have been finishes with three knockouts and four submissions, while all three of his losses have been knockouts.
- Hunsucker can be dangerous when he lunges forward throwing big one-twos looking for the knockout punch, but he tends to telegraph his strikes at long range. He is fairly quick but his attack is quite one-dimensional: back up, draw his opponent in and then storm forward.
- Hunsucker’s last three fights were Jordan Mitchell (win – submission), Jared Vanderaa (loss – knockout) and Cory Moon (win – knockout).
Prediction: Tai Tuivasa (-400) via knockout
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs Holland Best Bets
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Middleweight – Kevin Holland | -175 |
| Lightweight – Gregor Gillespie | -265 |
| Women’s Strawweight – Cheyanne Buys | -350 |
| Bantamweight – Gustavo Lopez | +180 |
| Welterweight – Kenan Song | +170 |
| Heavyweight – Tai Tuivasa | -400 |
