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Cejudo vs Moraes Betting Odds

The Octagon is heading back to the United Center in Chicago for UFC 238. Headlining the card is a title fight in the bantamweight division as flyweight champion Henry “The Messenger” Cejudo is looking to become a two-division champ as he squares off with Marlon “Magic” Moraes for the vacant bantamweight championship. Cejudo is coming off a win over former bantamweight champ T.J. Dillashaw in a flyweight bout but he’s a slight -105 underdog with Moraes coming back as a -125 favorite.

For a breakdown and pick for each main card fight for UFC 238, check out my preview for the card.

Odds Analysis

Marlon Moraes has been favored in four of his five UFC bouts, closing as a -105 dog to John Dodson in his only fight as an underdog. However, the biggest favorite Magic has been was in his debut at UFC 212 when he closed at -265 against Raphael Assuncao, a fight he lost via split decision. Since then, he has rattled off four straight wins, including three finishes in a row, all in the first round.

Henry Cejudo has had two streaks of four wins in a row, including an ongoing one right now. The Messenger has been favored in six of his 10 UFC fights but has been an underdog in each of his last two bouts, winning both. However, in his previous two fights in which he was a dog, he lost to Demetrious Johnson and Joseph Benavidez. This will be his first bout at bantamweight in five years.

How Will this Fight Play Out?

This is likely to be a true grappler vs striker matchup as Cejudo struck gold at the 2008 Olympic Games in Beijing for freestyle wrestling, while 10 of Moraes’ 22 professional wins have been by knockout.

Magic was taken down twice in his split-decision victory over John Dodson but hasn’t been taken down any other time and has a takedown defense of 60 percent. Meanwhile, the Messenger has landed at least one takedown in eight of his 10 UFC fights.

All fights start standing up and if Cejudo can’t figure out a way to bring the fight to the floor, he could be in for a tough night. But if Moraes doesn’t have his takedown defense on point, he will be dragged down over and over again.

UFC 238: Henry Cejudo vs Marlon Moraes Betting Odds
Henry Cejudo-105
Marlon Moraes-125

Odds as of June 4 at Bovada