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Oliveira vs Poirier Odds & Analysis: Lightweight Title Bout

Dustin Poirier (right) is favored in the Oliveira (left) vs Poirier odds.

Arguably the UFC’s deepest and most talented division will be in the forefront at UFC 269 when Charles Oliveira defends his title against former interim champion Dustin Poirier.

This bout will be the main event at UFC 269 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, on December 11. When it comes to Oliveira vs Poirier odds, it is the challenger, Poirier, who is the betting favorite.

Oliveira vs Poirier Odds

Online sportsbook Bovada has the Charles Oliveira vs Dustin Poirier betting odds with Poirier set as the -155 favorite and Oliveira the +130 underdog. If you’re looking to make a $100 profit with a Dustin victory, you need to lay $155 while a $100 winning bet on Charles would profit you $130.

FighterOdds
Charles Oliveira +130
Dustin Poirier-155

Odds as of November 25 at Bovada

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Our sports betting calculator tells us that Poirier’s odds represent an implied win probability of 60.78 percent while Oliveira has an implied win probability of 43.48 percent.

Ready to bet on Oliveira vs Poirier? Go see our How to Bet UFC page to guide you through the betting process. You can also see our sportsbook review page to help you choose where to bet on Poirier vs Oliveira. For other information, Odds Shark has all of your UFC fight news here.

Charles Oliveira vs Dustin Poirier Betting Odds Analysis

If you looked only at the recent run, Charles “Do Bronx” Oliveira as an underdog is surprising considering he has won nine in a row, including eight stoppages, and won the championship. However, the plus odds for the Brazilian are nothing new. He has been the underdog in two of his last three fights and was only a slight -130 favorite the night he won the belt at UFC 262.

Is Poirier Overvalued?

Only once in Dustin “Diamond” Poirier’s last five fights has he been more heavily favored than he is in this upcoming bout with Oliveira. After he lost to Khabib Nurmagomedov for the title at UFC 242, he fought Dan Hooker as -250 chalk and won a unanimous decision.

Oliveira vs Poirier Preview

What I love about this fight is that these are two fighters who have been in the UFC for 10 or more years, have had some ups and downs and are now putting it all together at a championship level.

Oliveira has been highly touted for a long time, making his UFC debut in 2010 when he was 20 years old and had a narrative around him that he didn’t have the mental toughness to bounce back from a bad round. However, he showed resiliency when he won the belt, having a tough first round only to come out in the second and earn a knockout within 19 seconds.

Charles is highly technical on the feet and on the floor. He has the most submissions in UFC history (14), three more than Demian Maia, but he also has knocked out three of his last five opponents.

Poirier Must Keep The Fight Standing

While the Diamond is a very well-rounded fighter in his own right, no doubt he should have the advantage on the feet and in terms of durability. Of course, if Oliveira does indeed shoot for a takedown, Poirier has an exceptional guillotine choke that nearly finished off Khabib Nurmagomedov.

Oliveira vs Poirier Pick

This is a real tough one – I can see either man winning. Yes, Poirier has the names on his list recently, stopping Conor McGregor twice, outboxing Max Holloway with five rounds and having been in there with Nurmagomedov.

Meanwhile, Oliveira has been running through the lightweight division and has always been seen as a guy with all of the tools to be the champion. It appears he’s finally reaching his potential.

I believe the betting public is going to be on Poirier and I think Oliveira is going to make this a grueling fight in which both men will have their moments. But if Do Bronx can stay mentally strong, he may get the win.

Prediction: Charles Oliveira (+130) via submission