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Chiesa vs Magny Preview & Expert Predictions: Which Welterweight Moves Closer to a Title Shot?

UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs Magny Preview

The UFC continues its time at Fight Island in Abu Dhabi of the United Arab Emirates with the second of three cards in a week, UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs Magny, set to take place on January 20.

This welterweight matchup is between two top-10 contenders poised to take the next step in the division, and I have a preview and prediction along with all of the UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs Magny odds below.

Of course, this event is the appetizer for the Fight Island finale, UFC 257, headlined by the return of Conor McGregor as he fights Dustin Poirier for the second time.

Michael Chiesa looks to become a player in the welterweight division since moving up from lightweight in late 2018. “Maverick” has picked up three wins in his new weight class, including victories over former interim welterweight champion Carlos Condit and former lightweight champion Rafael dos Anjos.

Also riding a three-fight winning streak is Neil Magny, who has a history of winning streaks until he reaches the higher-ranked names in the division. Perhaps this is the streak to bring him to the top as he’s coming off a victory over former welterweight champion Robbie Lawler.

Online sportsbook Bovada has released UFC Fight Island 8: Chiesa vs Magny odds and has listed Magny as the -145 favorite, with Chiesa coming back as a +115 underdog. This means you would have to bet $145 to profit $100 with a Magny win, while a $100 bet on a Chiesa win would profit you $115.

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Looking at the Chiesa vs Magny odds, our sports betting calculator tells us Magny’s odds of -145 represent an implied win probability of 59.18 percent while Chiesa’s odds of +115 have an implied win probability of 46.51 percent.


UFC Fight Island 8: Chiesa vs Magny Odds
  • Welterweight – Michael Chiesa (+115) vs Neil Magny (-145)
  • Welterweight – Warlley Alves (+195) vs Mounir Lazzez (-250)
  • Light Heavyweight – Ike Villanueva (-145) vs Vinicius Moreira (+115)
  • Women’s Flyweight – Roxanne Modafferi (+255) vs Viviane Araujo (-335)
  • Flyweight – Matt Schnell (+105) vs Tyson Nam (-135)
  • Featherweight – Lerone Murphy (-305) vs Douglas Silva de Andrade (+235)
  • Prelims
  • Bantamweight – Ricky Simon (-450) vs Gaetano Pirrello (+325)
  • Flyweight – Su Madaerji (-500) vs Zarrukh Adashev (+350)
  • Middleweight – Dalcha Lungiambula (-145) vs Markus Perez (+115)
  • Flyweight – Francisco Figueiredo (-155) vs Jerome Rivera (+125)
  • Lightweight – Mike Davis (-170) vs Mason Jones (+140)
  • Women’s Flyweight – Victoria Leonardo (+165) vs Manon Fiorot (-205)

New to betting on the fights? Check out our UFC betting guide to help you get in the action. Also, be sure to keep an eye on our UFC odds page for the latest up-to-date betting lines.


UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs Magny Broadcast Information
  • Date/Time: January 20, 10 a.m. ET
  • Location: Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
  • Arena: Etihad Arena
  • Where to Watch: ESPN/ESPN+

Michael Chiesa vs Neil Magny Preview, Prediction & Odds

FighterOdds
Michael Chiesa+115
Neil Magny-145

After battling with the scale at lightweight before even stepping in the cage, Chiesa (+115) seems to have found a weight class where he may be able to make a run for a title. Looking to halt that momentum is Magny (-145), who won three straight fights in 2020 after a full year off and is ready for a big 2021.


Chiesa: Need to Knows
  • Maverick was perhaps one fight away from a potential lightweight title shot but was stopped in back-to-back fights by Kevin Lee and Anthony Pettis. Of Chiesa’s 21 pro fights, 15 have been finished, with 11 wins coming by submission. He has one knockout loss and three submissions.
  • Don’t look for Chiesa to get into a standup war. He averages 3.84 takedowns per 15 minutes and has secured 15 over his three welterweight bouts. On the feet, he averages 2.07 significant strikes per minute while only absorbing 1.95.
  • The former Ultimate Fighter winner does a good job moving his feet and pumping his jab to either maintain distance or find an opening to rush in for a takedown. When he is able to get his hands on his opponent, he has the strength and skills to take them down.
  • On the feet, the southpaw essentially throws a jab followed by an overhand left to close as much distance to get in a grappling exchange. He doesn’t have much power in his hands and after the first round his speed slows as well.
  • Chiesa’s last three fights were Carlos Condit (win – submission), Diego Sanchez (win – unanimous decision) and Rafael dos Anjos (win – unanimous decision).


Magny: Need to Knows
  • The Haitian Sensation has won five of his last six fights, but following a knockout loss to Santiago Ponzinibbio in late 2018, he took a year off. He returned with a three-fight winning streak in 2020.
  • Magny is a well-rounded fighter with the ability to stand and trade for three rounds or get into grappling exchanges. He averages 2.63 takedowns per 15 minutes, landing eight takedowns over his last three fights. He also averages 3.96 significant strikes per minute while only absorbing 2.15.
  • He is long and wiry, with an 80-inch reach that is five inches longer than Chiesa’s. Magny does a good job maintaining distance with his kicks and long punches. At times, he will close the distance and not throw, looking to counter or level change.
  • Among his best attributes are his conditioning and pace, which he uses to tire his foe so he can be more aggressive. On the flip side, he tends to freeze when he absorbs a strike. Whether he is stung or not, there’s a moment when he’s hit clean that he doesn’t react, which is dangerous if he is fighting someone with good combinations.
  • Magny’s last three fights were Jingliang Li (win – unanimous decision), Anthony Rocco Martin (win – unanimous decision) and Robbie Lawler (win – unanimous decision).

Prediction: Neil Magny (-145) via decision

Warlley Alves vs Mounir Lazzez Preview, Prediction & Odds

FighterOdds
Warlley Alves+195
Mounir Lazzez-250

Following a successful UFC debut in July over Abdul Razak Alhassan, Mounir “Sniper” Lazzez (-250) looks to make it two in a row in his new weight class and three straight overall. Opponent Warlley Alves (+195) has been on a win-one, lose-one streak over his last four fights, most recently losing to Randy Brown in November 2019.


Alves: Need to Knows
  • If history tells us anything, we can expect an Alves fight not to go the distance, with each of his last four fights ending in stoppages. Alves opened his career with a 10-fight winning streak, including a submission win over Colby Covington, but he has lost four of his last seven.
  • The Brazilian is a well-rounded fighter, averaging 1.39 takedowns per 15 minutes, while in the striking department he lands 3.01 significant strikes per minute but absorbs 3.69.
  • Alves is an aggressive fighter, throwing big combinations at his opponent. If he lands clean, he puts them in deep trouble, but it’s also a method to close the distance and get into a grappling exchange. He constantly searches for submissions on the floor but tends to gas out with his all-out attack.
  • Alves’ last three fights were James Krause (loss – knockout), Sergio Moraes (win – knockout) and Randy Brown (loss – submission).


Lazzez: Need to Knows
  • Lazzez got the call to the UFC in its first stint at Fight Island in July 2020 as he had a record of 9-1 with eight knockout victories. He continued his winning ways but with just his second decision win.
  • With a nickname like Sniper, you might assume that he’s solely a striker but he landed all four of his takedown attempts in his UFC debut while landing 98 significant strikes to just 67 absorbed.
  • He has a good chin, which was on display when he survived the early barrage from Alhassan. Lazzez has really good kicks and uses his long 76-inch reach well, while often smiling in the pocket. Sniper also has a great lead knee when his opponents rush him, stopping them in their tracks.
  • Lazzez’s last three fights were Sasha Palatnikov (win – knockout), Arber Murati (win – knockout) and Abdul Razak Alhassan (win – unanimous decision).

Prediction: Mounir Lazzez (-250) via knockout

Ike Villanueva vs Vinicius Moreira Preview, Prediction & Odds

FighterOdds
Ike Villanueva-145
Vinicius Moreira+115

Two men desperately searching for a victory will duke it out in this fight. Vinicius “Mamute” Moreira (+115) has dropped all three of his fights in the Octagon since earning a contract in Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series Brazil in 2018. “Hurricane” Ike Villanueva (-145) is 0-2 in his two fights in the UFC after winning four in a row outside the promotion.


Villanueva: Need to Knows
  • Live or die by the knockout I guess sums it up for Hurricane Ike. Of his 17 pro wins, 14 have been by knockout, while five of his 11 losses have also come in that manner, including both of his UFC losses.
  • He has been bettered 66-23 in significant strikes over his two losses in the Octagon. He stands very flat-footed, always looking to land the perfect punch. Villanueva has decent combinations but his chin is really high up in the air and his strikes are typically thrown short, like he’s tight in the hips.
  • Villanueva’s last three fights were Rashad Coulter (win – knockout), Chase Sherman (loss – knockout) and Jordan Wright (loss – knockout).


Moreira: Need to Knows
  • Mamute has yet to have a fight go the distance, with all 13 of his pro fights ending by stoppage. Among his nine wins, he has eight submissions and one knockout. His four losses include three knockouts and a submission.
  • In his last three UFC bouts, he has absorbed 62 significant strikes while landing 14. Moreira is twitchy in the standup, trying to keep his opponents on edge as he looks to close distance and get the fight to the floor. He’s aggressive in searching for a submission if he can get close enough to grapple.
  • Moreira’s last three fights were Alonzo Menifield (loss – knockout), Eryk Anders (loss – knockout) and Paul Craig (loss – submission).

Prediction: Vinicius Moreira (+115) via submission

Roxanne Modafferi vs Viviane Araujo Preview, Prediction & Odds

FighterOdds
Roxanne Modafferi+255
Viviane Araujo-335

Roxanne “The Happy Warrior” Modafferi (+255) had a strong 2020, winning two of her three fights, including cashing as a +525 underdog vs Maycee Barber. She has been on a win-one, lose-one streak over her last nine fights but hopes to stop that and collect back-to-back wins. Looking for consecutive wins of her own is Viviane “Vivi” Araujo (-335), who won her only fight in 2020 over Montana De La Rosa.


Modafferi: Need to Knows
  • A pioneer in women’s MMA, this will be Modafferi’s 43rd professional fight and she carries a record of 25-17. Of those 42 pro fights, 29 have gone the distance so the OVER may be a wise play.
  • The Happy Warrior’s fundamentals are incredible, she listens to her coaches and she sticks to her strengths. Her main area of attack is grappling, as she has good jiu-jitsu skills and takedowns, but her striking has improved.
  • On the feet, she constantly pumps out a jab to keep her opponents at bay and distract them so she can level change and go for a takedown.
  • Modafferi’s last three fights were Maycee Barber (win – unanimous decision), Lauren Murphy (loss – unanimous decision) and Andrea Lee (win – unanimous decision).


Araujo: Need to Knows
  • Araujo closed out 2019 with her first loss in the Octagon, falling to Jessica Eye by unanimous decision, but she rebounded with a win in 2020 to move her record to 9-2. Seven of her nine wins have been stoppages, with three knockouts and four submissions.
  • Vivi is very active on her feet, aggressively getting in the face of her opponent and throwing strikes with bad intentions. She has good power in her hands but tends to use her legs to get out of danger with limited head movement.
  • She does a good job reading her opponents’ movements and mixes her strikes well, throwing leg kicks to draw an attack out of her foe before cracking them with an overhand strike.
  • Araujo’s last three fights were Alexis Davis (win – unanimous decision), Jessica Eye (loss – unanimous decision) and Montana De La Rosa (win – unanimous decision).

Prediction: Viviane Araujo (-335) via knockout

Matt Schnell vs Tyson Nam Preview, Prediction & Odds

FighterOdds
Matt Schnell+105
Tyson Nam-135

Tyson Nam (-135) had an active 2020, fighting three times and winning the last two, both by knockout. He looks to continue this streak against Matt “Danger” Schnell (+105), who returns to the Octagon for the first time in over a year and is coming off a first-round knockout loss in December 2019.


Schnell: Need to Knows
  • Prior to his most recent defeat, Schnell had been on a four-fight winning streak putting him just a couple of wins away from a title shot. Only four of his 19 pro fights have gone the distance as he has two knockout and eight submission wins and has been knocked out three times and submitted once.
  • Danger uses a lot of feints at distance, as he walks forward looking to get his hands on his opponent. He doesn’t mind getting into a firefight, but at times he will get in the pocket and rely solely on head movement to avoid strikes, keeping his hands low, which puts him in areas where he can be hit hard.
  • Schnell has great combinations when he throws and they are crisp, fast and accurate. This makes his opponents uncomfortable and they will stand and trade with him or level change but he has great submission skills so that’s a dangerous move.
  • Schnell’s last three fights were Louis Smolka (win – submission), Jordan Espinosa (win – submission) and Alexandre Pantoja (loss – knockout).


Nam: Need to Knows
  • Nam has split his four appearances in the Octagon, falling by decision in his first two and walking away with knockout wins in his last two. Of his 20 pro wins, 13 have been stoppages with 12 knockouts and one submission, though he’s been knocked out three times too.
  • Don’t look for Nam to be going for a takedown in this one. He has secured no takedowns over his four bouts, rather standing in the pocket and trading hands. He averages 3.55 significant strikes per minute but absorbs 5.71.
  • He is fairly patient, closing off the cage, but typically waits for his spot to counter heavily. That said, if he finds a spot to land his right hand, he can end the night in a hurry.
  • Nam’s last three fights were Kai Kara France (loss – unanimous decision), Zarrukh Adashev (win – knockout) and Jerome Rivera (win – knockout).

Prediction: Matt Schnell (+105) via decision

Lerone Murphy vs Douglas Silva de Andrade Preview, Prediction & Odds

FighterOdds
Lerone Murphy-305
Douglas Silva de Andrade+235

Putting his undefeated record on the line and searching for his second win in the Octagon is Leron “The Miracle” Murphy (-305). Looking to put a loss on Murphy’s record is Douglas “D’Silva” Silva de Andrade (+235), who eyes his first winning streak since he won two in a row in 2015-16, most recently beating former bantamweight champion Renan Barao.


Murphy: Need to Knows
  • The Miracle drew a tough test in his UFC debut facing Zubaira Tukhugov, which ended in a split draw. But he excelled in his second bout in the Octagon with a first-round knockout of Ricardo Ramos.
  • Murphy has good striking defense, keeping his hands high, and is quick to check a kick. When he throws, he has exceptional speed and power. Six of his nine pro wins have come by knockout. His takedown defense was exposed in the Tukhugov draw but looked improved vs Ramos.
  • Murphy’s last three fights were Manolo Scianna (win – knockout), Zubaira Tukhugov (split draw) and Ricardo Ramos (win – knockout).


Silva de Andrade: Need to Knows
  • This is the first time we’re seeing D’Silva since his decision win over Renan Barao in November 2019. He has been fairly inactive over the last two years, but the only three men to beat him are Zubaira Tukhugov, Rob Font and current champion Petr Yan.
  • Silva de Andrade is primarily a striker, averaging 3.96 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.43. Of his 26 pro wins, 19 have been by knockout, and he has just one submission win.
  • He is an aggressive fighter who puts everything into every shot. At times, though, he overswings looking for the knockout, which can put him in danger of a counter. That said, if he lands, he throws a flurry of punches that can end the fight rapidly.
  • Silva de Andrade’s last three fights were Marlon Vera (win – unanimous decision), Petr Yan (loss – knockout) and Renan Barao (win – unanimous decision).

Prediction: Lerone Murphy (-305) via knockout

UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs Magny Best Bets

FighterOdds
Neil Magny -145
Mounir Lazzez-250
Vinicius Moreira+115
Viviane Araujo-335
Matt Schnell+105
Lerone Murphy-305